Mega Thread Winter's Snowed-In BBQ Forum

Discussion in 'Weather' started by POW_hungry, May 31, 2017.

  1. MarkV

    MarkV Active Member
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    Anyone know what's up with the Hotham snow cams? They've been down for a couple of days now.
     
  2. Undies

    Undies Part of the Furniture
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    Not enough snow.
     
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  3. SnowBound

    SnowBound Dedicated Member

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    How I feel so far looking at weather maps for snow producing systems...

    [​IMG]
     
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  4. hongomania

    hongomania Dedicated Member

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    Warmest winter day today since 1993 at hotham

    11.6 degrees Celsius
     
  5. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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  6. Rush

    Rush Pool Room
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  7. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN Well-Known Member

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    Ready to shoot the Blue Bird.
     
  8. PMG

    PMG Dedicated Member
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    23rd/24th seems to have gone AWOL on GFS today. Hopefully it will return tomorrow.
     
  9. rocketboy

    rocketboy Dedicated Member
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    SOI 30 day average looks set to plunge into the negs unless we get some positive numbers back in the daily figures in the next few days

    https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/

    Were there any stray local weather events to explain these recent numbers? 30 day and 90 day are still neutral - though with a consistent low neg value for the 90 day average. PDO has also been strongly positive for months now. Though back to neutral in recent weeks.

    2012 was maybe the last season strongly driven by a cool PDO that dovetailed nicely with a deep La Nina. And several years of higher than average volcanic dust in the atmosphere.
     
  10. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    The long range forecast for the Snowies is looking rather bland. Can't see any new snow falling in the foreseeable future.
     
  11. PMG

    PMG Dedicated Member
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    It went into the negatives from the 1st June like a switch had been flicked. Amazing.
     
  12. rocketboy

    rocketboy Dedicated Member
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    So no local weather to explain it like usual in the JFMA period. Next 2 ENSO updates will be interesting - June 20 is the next BOM update.
     
  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    Back there this morning on the 18Z (& EC's 12Z) run, looks orright.
     
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  14. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Has anyone noticed that Thredbo has it's own snow forecaster now? Guy Dixon. And he has a bit of experience at WZ and Swellnet. He seems to know what he is doing, compared to the other folk in that space. The Male Jane Bunn perhaps? ;)

    Edit: He might wanna stop relying on GFS runs though.
     
  15. Scoober

    Scoober Active Member

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    Agree on the GFS reliance. Also a weekly update with the way the systems are disappearing at the moment will not be that helpful anyway. Maybe a daily or every second day update would help keep Joe Average more informed.
     
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  16. PMG

    PMG Dedicated Member
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    It's as good as any of the others lately.
     
  17. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Given that all of them rely on GFS, I don't expect that to change. But he brings more experience than most of the others.
     
  18. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Some future forecast flakes

    [​IMG]
     
  19. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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  20. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    But every-time I am posting it goes to crap on the next run. Dam GFS stop jinxing me. So I am not saying anything more.
     
    #170 7wombathead, Jun 14, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 14, 2017
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  21. Fast Eddie

    Fast Eddie Active Member

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    Yep, 25th back on big time.....for now
     
  22. PMG

    PMG Dedicated Member
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    I actually meant GFS itself. ;)
     
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  23. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    #1 Rule:
    [​IMG]
     
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  24. PMG

    PMG Dedicated Member
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    Weather humour! What will those wacky meteorologists come up with next?
     
  25. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    He snowboards... some of them know weather... #NeverForget
     
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  26. rocketboy

    rocketboy Dedicated Member
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    The key is to talk it down not up ;)
     
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  27. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    The anticyclone that has been anchored over the NW has been forcing the Jet S until
    this feature starts shifting east byway of ull-divergence. Not much will change.

    [​IMG]
     
    #177 jwx, Jun 14, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 14, 2017
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  28. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Could see it being a pest on Thurs.
     
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  29. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Scattering of timing in the 00z charts.
    AXS 192 hrs.
    EC 216 / 240
    GFS a little behind that.
     
  30. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    The charts are boring me.
    More weather humour required!
     
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  31. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    I'm thinking that system will rare its head again after dipping in the tasman and bring snow on the 18th.

    Putting EM on the table for chop.
     
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  32. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    Same node, just delayed from 24-48 hours prior?

    Would benefit from Sunday's node cooling things surely

    I'm not sold, but live in hope
     
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  33. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    GFS clears it out around the 20th.plot2

    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]
     
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  34. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    What do you think about the 18th jelly.
     
  35. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    We can come back to this. edit ?
    [​IMG]
     
    #185 nfip, Jun 14, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 14, 2017
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  36. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    Yeah thanks for the lesson nfip.:) Its already well into play.,
    Question is will the signal hold serve of weaken out.



    [​IMG]





    [​IMG]
     
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  37. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Wasn't intended as a lesson at all.
    Was putting the pieces from here together as I see them falling into place .
     
    #187 nfip, Jun 14, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 14, 2017
  38. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Not much, a few drops on the Vic South Coast maybe.

    The 22-26 June period looks interesting. GFS shows something massive, a season starter for sure. EC doesn't. We will have to keep watch. As @nfip said VP200 charts show a potential low.
    [​IMG]
     
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  39. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    The vp200 shows lower pressure and lowering heights broad scale.
    The sam should also show signs of a dip for that period if its to produce.
    a decent system with reaching C/fronts. And of course the anticyclone
    needs to move on.

    Broad scale divergence is not a low pressure system.
     
    #189 jwx, Jun 14, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 14, 2017
  40. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    Very likely IMO!
     
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  41. rocketboy

    rocketboy Dedicated Member
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  42. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    ACCESS-G looks interesting. Snowy outlook on only ACCESS though.
     
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  43. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    [QUOTE="Jellybeans1000, post: 3306424, member: 66164"]The charts are boring me.
    More weather humour required
    ![/QUOTE]
    [​IMG]
     
  44. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    [​IMG] [/QUOTE]
    A bit naughty :nono::p
    Na, TBH I copy Jane word for word.
    [​IMG]
    Very eventful LOL

    Exposed, oh wait.... :headbang:
     
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  45. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Thing could do with some improvement
     
  46. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Had a look this a few of those last night.
    They did not appear to be what we would want to see.
    .I. e on the warm dry side even if slightly so
     
  47. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Temps to go with Kletterer precip ^^
    Not so sure if enough cold SST in the GAB to come into play , but it is one favourable sign.
    IMO.

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  48. sbm

    sbm Dedicated Member
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    Bit old but worth a repost.
    [​IMG]
     
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  49. Hermon

    Hermon Dedicated Member

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    Check out June 1972 and compare to this year. It came good after June 28 that year.

    Also, persistently warm Tasman Sea looks like a relic of 2015-16 El Nino.
     
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  50. Fast Eddie

    Fast Eddie Active Member

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    June 26th-30th looking great for a couple of back to back systems on the latest GFS run after some potential wet stuff on the 25th.

    Was there last night too.
     
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