Mega Thread Winter's Snowed-In BBQ Forum

Discussion in 'Weather' started by POW_hungry, May 31, 2017.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    Danky McDankface.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    Had a look this morning at current 10mb, probably more in support of Blocking high development moreso than an SSW event.

    Still, a ~10C shift is probably considered a minor event (rather than -25C shift considered a 'severe event'), no?

     
    #102 POW_hungry, Jun 9, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 9, 2017
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  3. cookieman

    cookieman Dedicated Member
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    Cant see any weather events for the alps for the next 10 days.
    Could this be the quiet before the storm?
    At least there's enough cover for an easy ski on all resorts to at least keep them going.
     
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  4. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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  5. rocketboy

    rocketboy Dedicated Member
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    yes saw that tonight on the outer limits of yr.no
    http://www.yr.no/place/Australia/New_South_Wales/Perisher_Village/long.html

    even PV gets a few hopes at Jun 19.

    looking at the forecast temps over the coming days and what we have seen so far - it appears to be tracking at about 3-7C warmer than 2015. neg 3 not neg 8/10 nites - overall humidity is clearly much higher this year.

    The cold down south is still far from here yet. Spencer Creek is only partly frozen. In 2012 it was walkable on Jun 3. In 2015 it war nearly all frozen over. Currently it's only the edges at best and mostly flowing freely across all the creeks.

    If some of this year's big Antarctic cold does get this far north and meets up with all this moist air - it could turn into a stunning season. Otherwise borderline average at best - if SC cracks 100 this year I'll be happy.
     
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  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    FWIW

    17JUN System


    23JUN System
     
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  7. jungfrau

    jungfrau Active Member

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    First day of ski season and Hotham is playing with webcams already
    Why cant they just be live.. not the best pictures of the week. It should be law ;)
     
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  8. Cuddles

    Cuddles Active Member

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    melt back?
     
  9. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Looks ok on the approach.
     
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  10. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    The 00z polar shot. Trough appears to collide with a low off the
    coastline.
    [​IMG]

    Would expect a downgrade this is extreme to say the least.
     
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  11. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Cant see it eventuating.
     
  12. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    These plots show the low off the coast and the polar trough pushing in behind it.
    Would be a nice scenario should it verify.Moisture from the low feeding trough,
    interesting.
    [​IMG]




    [​IMG]
    The low.off the coast.



    [​IMG]
    The polar front/trough with pv push's in behind and quite fast on hi-res EC Thus the reason the 00z hires plots are showing a v/cold, large multi vort complex system side by side.
     
    #112 jwx, Jun 10, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 10, 2017
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  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    Yeah it is interesting, both GFS and Ec have plotted this scenario at some stage.
    As I mentioned yesterday, I think this is a little unrealistic also, we should know by early next week IMO.
     
  14. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU Dedicated Member
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    anyone remember the 4 headed monster from last year? Just found this saved on my phone...

     
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  15. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Slight shift towards what @jwx mentioned above. Similar on EC with a diminished ridge but may be a little too far south IMO. Interesting uppers pushing through.
     
    #115 Kletterer, Jun 11, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 11, 2017
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  16. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    There is something there.

    Sustained cold blast already hitting NZ and could it here next week.

    [​IMG]
     
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  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    GFS 00Z is giving the East Coast trough more of the cold shoulder on today's run, creating a more ridgy scenario which I think the progression is a more likely outcome.
    It's a big shift from what's been progged in recent runs IMO.
    [​IMG]
     
    #117 POW_hungry, Jun 11, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 11, 2017
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  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    EC 00Z aligned with GFS
    [​IMG]
     
  19. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    :(, but always had that feeling.
     
  20. MickM

    MickM Dedicated Member
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    Another 2 weeks of blocking weather, come on huey!!
     
  21. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    Admittingly, on the bright side, models are progging more of a ridge than a block which could be considered a lesser evil once things get moving again.
     
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  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    Dam heights over the Alps suggest things are gonna get warm this week - inter-seasonally warm.
    Double figures are likely in the resorts for Tues/Wed (+6C anoms) IMO.

    Fortunately, we've got some dry air about so resorts will still have some good snowmaking opportunity at night. All week if we're lucky.
     
    #122 POW_hungry, Jun 11, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 11, 2017
  23. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    GFS and EC have backflipped here, having a hard time putting their finger on this one. It's a strong node to the South but balanced on the high's placement IMO.
    Both models putting a Southerly blast in the mix. GFS has it moisture-laden whilst EC says it's as dry as our last system. Needs time.


     
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  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    BOM's not taking much notice of AXS and going for 5-10cm this weekend.
     
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  25. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    Janes forecast.
    http://www.janebunn.net/snow-forecast/

    SNOW FORECAST DISCUSSION

    ISSUED: MONDAY 12TH JUNE, 8AM
    A cold front will clip the southeast today, while the ridge of high pressure remains. Cloud builds over Victorian resorts, while its generally sunny across the border. There is the chance of showers in the southwest (but its not cold enough for snow).

    The high takes over again tomorrow and persists for the rest of the week. A cold front passes by early Thursday.

    A strong front should break through the high on Sunday. The cold air arrives pretty quickly (limited rain before the change to snow). The airmass is cold enough for snow to lower to 1000 metres (800 metres in southern VIC, 500 metres in TAS).

    Another strong front arrives early next week, but the high will push it to the south.


    [​IMG]
     
  26. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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  27. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Brisk change in gradients as it gets to the coast forming an ECL.
     
  28. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    With a bit of moisture may be something there also for NSW southern highlands and central tablelands.. [​IMG]




    [​IMG]
     
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  29. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    my 2cents on the next system to follow L/R
    On a positive note the next v/strong polar front as per 12z EC begins to push across the continent,on the 21th as shown on these deterministic plots. Its inline with the previous EPS ens that forecasts a decent weather system clearing out the ridging over the continent. look back for those who are not following the thread think it was due over the SE roughly on the 24th.



    [​IMG]
    Strong polar front and very wet just moving over WA 21th.


    [​IMG]
    Cold


    [​IMG]
    Wet.

    This front should as previously plotted on EPS clear out the ridging and deliver roughly around the 24/25 depending on its forward motion speed.


    This will do me for the week.
     
    #129 jwx, Jun 12, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 12, 2017
  30. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    Agreed, it's got some gumption. It's a big system on paper.23-25JUN has always looked like a turning point on Ensembles.
    Very cold on GFS.
    [​IMG]
     
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  31. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    All lining up with a cckw /rossby wave ...mjo fueled from forcing on the belt swio

    [​IMG]
    Big upper-level divergence 20th+ rising air =convention for a nice change from the current sinking dry air with solid ridging. So it has weight as a L/R forecast..
     
    #131 jwx, Jun 12, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 12, 2017
  32. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    That's a significant shift. A Board scale change perhaps. Chance of some tropical influence from the West/Nor-West by late-JUN maybe?
     
  33. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    Above plots.
    Very much what is the norm with a positive sam westerlies . When any type off ssw is about to occur look for
    wind anoms along the outta belt off the vortex. (easterly wind shifts along with temp changes).

    [​IMG]
    Common + sam. pattern
     
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  34. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    Hmmmm, really like to see sub -25C (and pref sub -30) to think 'cold', but the thickness is good....
     
  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    Thanks for that, @jwx :thumbs:
     
  36. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    ?? o_O
    -30C @500mb temps are there on Sunday night... It's a big anom for Jun - they're July/August temps IMO.
     
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  37. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    You're on the money, as usual mate.
    [​IMG]
     
  38. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    When you can't get your kicks in Aus over 'winter' you look elsewhere. Courtesy of a meandering upper-level low it's snowing in Mammoth/Sierra Nevada. 6-8 inches in some areas.
     
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  39. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    I was referring to this... (21st) (although my comment re thickness was confused!)

     
  40. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    jwx / POW / Jelly and co. ! .... .
    Punter question soz..is this scale an OLR anomaly. ?
    so illustrating convection and lieklyhood for Low pressure development ?
     
  41. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    Argh gotcha. Still has -28,-30's in there north of 40th Parallel (under WA).
    [​IMG]
     
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  42. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Back from the snow. Was good coverage for QBW. But Buller is certainly a work in progress.
    So that chart shows Velocity Potential at 200hPa. It is used to show rising air(negative anomalies) and sinking air(positive anomalies). Rising air is associated with lows and sinking air is associated with highs.

    This visual shows the rising air in lows and sinking air in highs. It also shows the convergence and divergence in a high or low, depending on the top or the bottom. This is why jwx and others talk about divergence aloft. Because divergence aloft equals a low.

    [​IMG]

    Rising air is also associated with MJO and that particular chart is used to forecast MJO.
     
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  43. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Thx Jelly.
    I did have a look but couldn't find all the pieces to make sense of the puzzle.
     
  44. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    Worth noting is that 200mb is equal to around 10-12,000m in height which is an indicative level for severe cumulus caps (outflow/divergence), hence why the significance of VP200 as an indicator.
     
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  45. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Also Horizontal convergence = vertical stretching of an air parcel = more vorticity pot..
     
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  46. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    All the guys have given you correct answers. The easiest way to put it is upper level
    divergence cause's lower pressure and lower heights.

    edited may have been confusing.:)
     
    #146 jwx, Jun 12, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 12, 2017
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  47. Rabid K9

    Rabid K9 Dedicated Member
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    Could certainly do with some divergence from the current curse of a convergence which has been plaguing WA for weeks now.

    Dry a bone, significant water stress evident in vegetation. Poor winters makes me fear summer even more.
     
  48. rocketboy

    rocketboy Dedicated Member
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    At this rate Peak Season will have been Tuesday June 6. For which only 4 turned up to experience.
     
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  49. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    I'll be a little more concerned if we having same obs/discussion in a months time.
    Has been many years past where the snow pack , in the resorts , wasn't established till mid-late July.
     
  50. Hermon

    Hermon Dedicated Member

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