Mega Thread Winter's Snowed-In BBQ Forum

Discussion in 'Weather' started by POW_hungry, May 31, 2017.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    In line with what other ensembles (and GFS) have been indicating. It's coming and going but there are indicators that suggest a break around the time too.
     
  2. kimberlee81

    kimberlee81 Dedicated Member

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    Again, the first week of PROPER winter will commence on June 22. If Australia would fall into line with other counties, and calculate our seasons from the solstices and equinoxes, people would not have the unreal expectations of there being skiable snow on the QB long weekend.

    Allowing for the FIRST day of winter being June 22nd, it simply isn't realistic to expect there to be skiable snow for at least two or three weeks after that date. The fact that there sometimes is, is simply a bonus.

    NOTE: For those that don't know the history, the Queen's/King's Birthday long weekend used only to be a conveniently placed three days, before the snow generally arrived, where lodge members and commercial operators could head up to the mountains to prepare & stock up for the coming season. It was never the start of the ski season.
     
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  3. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    You didn't answer the simple weather-related question, perhaps you could start your own 'make the start of winter 22nd of June, great again' thread somewhere else, perhaps in conversation? As your condescending, know-it-all tone hasn't helped on this occasion.
    Some people are simply curious about what weather to expect in June... take it easy, eh?!
     
  4. Fast Eddie

    Fast Eddie Active Member

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  5. 2cool

    2cool Just Registered

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    would be nice
     
  6. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    [​IMG]
    Also would be nice.
    And some agreement with GFS.
    [​IMG]
     
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  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    Models & ensembles are still finding their feet on it.

    But a split in the ridge & block pattern is supported by stratospheric changes in the sub topics region of Aus, over the next week.
    CFS likes some high domination to the SW of Aus which is ideal.
    [​IMG]
     
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  8. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Slingshot into the trough ?
     
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  9. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    Both the GFS and the canuck ens amplify the the trough.

    [​IMG]

    This GFS digs into the ridge with a complex low system.

    [​IMG]


    Early days for this, needs EC ens support to give the forecast weight imo..
     
    #59 jwx, Jun 8, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 8, 2017
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  10. Fast Eddie

    Fast Eddie Active Member

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    Nice to be at least talking about the next system though
     
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  11. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    TBH i'm not seeing anything other than a strong and perfect symmetrical P-vortex.
    Just my 2 cents. That does not mean anybody else's opinion is wrong.

    [​IMG]
     
  12. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    ECL Spaghetti.

    [​IMG]

    and tomorrows possible wandering cold pool.
    [​IMG]
     
  13. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    Prefer lasagna myself.
     
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  14. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    240 hrs Lasagne ;)
    [​IMG]
     
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  15. Ozgirl

    Ozgirl Dedicated Member
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  16. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    @nfip you may like the end of the ec12z run the wandering trough tracks,
    nne over nsw and wraps into a large low when it exits the continent. Its not showing a deep system
    but a rather large one with powerful storm force wind field.


    [​IMG]

    Looks a SE shore wrecker special on paper.
     
    #66 jwx, Jun 8, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 8, 2017
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  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    We'll take the swell, even if it's a storm-force onshore.
     
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  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    Interesting @jwx . Is that a model? or observed? Looks current.
    Back HERE is where I first noticed a polar egg. Concurrent across GFS & EC. Anyway, I'll have another peek at it tonight.
     
  19. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    Its current @10mb. I have looked over jma strat i could not see any warming atm.
     
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  20. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Flash Back 12 months.
    Again.
    'Twas a beast from the Nor'East .
    1004 hPa so not too intense. Yet.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
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  21. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    The other tastey ingredient here.
    Not so in the IO....

    [​IMG]
     
  22. Undies

    Undies Part of the Furniture
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  23. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Interesting but not sexy. Some cheeky bugger flipped hemispheres on us
     
  24. Sno Sno SNO

    Sno Sno SNO Active Member

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    So then i must never have been skiing in the northern hemisphere before the 22nd December????? Errr...

    I agree that expecting skiable snow before the solstice in Australia is a bit rich, but trying to define winter (or summer) as being after the solstice is wrong.

    At least today Adelaide has had a cold snap and some wintery showery weather for at least a few hours this afternoon.
     
  25. Nightskywatcher

    Nightskywatcher Active Member

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    Sorry, I'm in agreement with @kimbeelee81, Winter doesn't start until the solstice and continues till the equinox. Starting it on a calender date is so commercial and bears nothing to reality.

    Sure you might get cold days and snow, but hey, we have all seen snow on Kozi in the middle of summer too.

    Don't confuse weather with seasons.
     
  26. Vandans

    Vandans Active Member

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    I ski Europe and the last winter was very ordinary thin crust hard packed and the last good snow fell,in the alps in late January, after that man made and warm temps.

    Skiing before a Christmas is now a memory
     
  27. sedders

    sedders Active Member

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    To be consistent and to make weather forecastingeasier, meteorologists divide the year into 4 meteorological seasons of 3 months each:

    • Spring - from March 1 to May 31;
    • Summer - from June 1 to August 31;
    • Fall (autumn) - from September 1 to November 30; and,
    • Winter - from December 1 to February 28 (February 29 in a leap year).
    Opposite Sides – Opposite Seasons
    Seasons in the Southern Hemisphere are opposite to those in the Northern Hemisphere. For example, under the definition of astronomical seasons, the June Solstice marks the start of summer in the Northern Hemisphere, but is the start of winter in the Southern Hemisphere. The same rule applies for the other 3 seasons.

    The meteorological seasons in the Southern Hemisphere are also opposite to those in the Northern Hemisphere:

    • Fall (autumn) - starts March 1 and ends May 31;
    • Winter - starts June 1 and ends August 31;
    • Spring - starts September 1 and ends November 30; and,
    • Summer - starts December 1 and ends February 28 (February 29 in a Leap Year).
     
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  28. maverik

    maverik Active Member

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    "Starting it on a calender date is so commercial and bears nothing to reality."
    Mate that is so dumb!!!!!!
     
  29. SMSkier

    SMSkier Dedicated Member

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    Plenty of historical theory on the dates.

    They historically started on the first of the month as opposed to the solstice as the convicts could not remember the date.

    The military corps st the time had a uniform change at the commencement of the month.

    Plenty of others.
     
  30. bradster

    bradster Active Member

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    Where's Claude when you need him.......
     
  31. PMG

    PMG Dedicated Member
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    There's an AFL game on. ;)
     
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  32. Nightskywatcher

    Nightskywatcher Active Member

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    Historically, people watched the motion of the Sun and stars to predict the seasonal transition, long before military uniforms were changed on the month. The most prominent of these were the soltice and equinox.
     
  33. sedders

    sedders Active Member

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    I observe people getting confused between astronomical seasons and meteorological seasons. As this is a weather thread, please observe the meteorological season:
    • Winter - starts June 1 and ends August 31st
    Of course this must not be confused with the much shorter snow season or the even smaller ski season.

    Going to Hotham tomorrow, will provide more interesting observations then.
     
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  34. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    It was about as interesting as the tail of this system..... underwhelming.
     
  35. Cuddles

    Cuddles Active Member

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    Well what a waste this thread has become , silly issue to discuss , wecrealky font care on an obs thread .. admin ? Time to close off
    Seems that be snowing still at p
     
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  36. rocketboy

    rocketboy Dedicated Member
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    Forget the four day rule this season. It will be more like the four hour rule ... as in what happened the last four hours.
     
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  37. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Ask Simmo about it (if you PSR that is )
     
  38. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    Meh.
    Seasons in the south east of Australia reflect the actual months more than solstice etc.
    If anything, 'spring' starts mid August.
     
  39. MarkV

    MarkV Active Member
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    [​IMG]

    Going by this chart winter for Melbourne should be defined as about mid May to mid August.
    Or perhaps even start of May to the end of August. Basically, it is a very arbitrary thing, and
    specific to the location you are in.
     
  40. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    In my Outdoor work experience in Melbourne...
    High Summer Mid December until second week of March
    Autumn second week of March until end of May.
    True winter June until mid August.
    Early Spring mid August to mid October.
    High spring mid October to mid December.
    Mornington Peninsula observations
     
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  41. PMG

    PMG Dedicated Member
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    GFS looks flat until at least the 24th to my eyes. Any of the other models showing any penetration of the brick wall highs?
     
    #91 PMG, Jun 9, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 9, 2017
  42. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    GEFS & EC Ensembles (better at long range) show a shift in the blocking pattern ~17th June. IMO it does look quite ridgy beyond the next couple of weeks, pretty standard for June IMO.
     
  43. Armitage_Shanks

    Armitage_Shanks Active Member

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    FWIW - I disagree. This is the "Winter's Snowed-In BBQ Forum" thread after all. It's a good place to discuss these things.

    Anyone seen this before?
    http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/ockhamsrazor/sprinter-and-sprummer/5705564
    Dr. Tim Entwisle, director of the Royal Botanical Gardens in Melbourne, argues in his book that Australia should adopt a 5 season model. Including a "Sprinter" and a "Sprummer."
    Not saying I agree with him entirely. But he raises similar points in his books as have been discussed here.
     
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  44. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    FYI the above discussion (including the post you quoted) was moved here from the Obs thread by the mods, this morning. It's now in it's right place.
     
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  45. Armitage_Shanks

    Armitage_Shanks Active Member

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    Thanks.
    I hadn't checked in today til just now. I observed an odd comment in the Obs thread (see what I did there?) and put 2 and 2 together when @Claude Cat said he'd moved a few comments.

    In any case, blocking highs certainly take the fun out of reading charts. What are we saying? The 17th to the 24th to break this cycle?


    I like the look of the 23rd. 534 goodness.

    But at 336 hours? Go home GFS, you're drunk.
     
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  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    That is long range, yes. Model skill deteriorates significantly beyond 144-192hrs, this where ensembles are often more useful, in a guiding sense. GFS/GEFS seems consistent around the 17th, but the progression of GFS seems off to me (Sub-trop Tasman Low). I think a frontal scenario is more likely given a strengthening node is due around then, this appears to the South of WA on the 500mb charts.
    Above all, the good indicator here is that we see the retreat of the blocking scenario across both EC & GFS ensembles around the 17th ATM.
     
    #96 POW_hungry, Jun 9, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 9, 2017
  47. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    [​IMG]
    18-20 June looks okay on EPS Control. A trough with a coldish backend.
    [​IMG]
    Though both EPS and GFS like the 23rd. Still pretty drunk.
     
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  48. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Is that second image GEPS or EPS?
     
  49. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    GEFS actually.
     
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  50. PMG

    PMG Dedicated Member
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    After a respite this morning, more rain incoming for Sydney and further north. Trying to empty the pool a bit with the hose and it's filling as fast as I can empty it. Pretty soggy long weekend coming up...