Mega Thread Winter's Snowed-In BBQ Forum

Discussion in 'Weather' started by POW_hungry, May 31, 2017.

  1. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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  2. Xwing

    Xwing Well-Known Member

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    Snowsense on the book are putting out stats thusly...(example at this stage I think). Not sure on all of it but if you're into and haven't seen, perhaps check them out.

     
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  3. glengary

    glengary Well-Known Member
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    Some more W.A. specials like last year.
     
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  4. Hermon

    Hermon Dedicated Member

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    I'm liking what I see on 00Z GFS for this time next week. Some nice cold upper temps if it comes off.
     
  5. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Both GFS and EC have liked it for a few days.
    The other models have not though, and given how this year has gone, I'm not too confident.
     
  6. chriscross

    chriscross Dedicated Member
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    I'm booked to go to Perth on the 17th so that should be the week everything lines up in the mountains.
     
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  7. iagreewithhim

    iagreewithhim Well-Known Member

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    I hope so - I'll be passing you on the way!
     
  8. neck_deep

    neck_deep Active Member

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    I gotta go to cairns that weekend so the second I leave jindy it'll be on.
     
  9. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    New date range thread up.
     
  10. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope Dedicated Member
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    Not so much a snow quality issue, more quantity!
     
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  11. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    Certainly agree. I've been there and done that on Bluff Knoll!
    But to me it's not the instance of snow that's noteworthy, but moreso it's the two times in two weeks (it's usually a once a year occurance at best) spells out some big anomalies occurring on the west coast, and interestingly enough last winter played out similarly.
     
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  12. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN Well-Known Member

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    Hope cast I know but GFS has gone all in for the next couple of weeks. Systems racked up and stacked out to the 25th+ :) The Vibe is strong.

    1st week system - 14th

    [​IMG]

    2nd system - 17th to the 19th
    [​IMG]

    3rd/4th system - 23rd to 25th+
    [​IMG]
     
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  13. glengary

    glengary Well-Known Member
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  14. nickxylophone

    nickxylophone New Member

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    Was up around Jindy a few weeks back, just before the season started to take some star-lapses - only just got around to editing them. Really shows how clear that mountain air is, it always surprises me as a city kid :eek:

    This one was taken from kosciusko road, looking back down over jindy from that big tower thing

    [​IMG]

    And this one is from the clearing in sawpit creek campground :)

    [​IMG]

    Not strictly weather related but i thought some of you may be interested!
     
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  15. MarkV

    MarkV Active Member
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    Looks like this is the season for accumulation rather than dumps. One good dump would be nice though, to get the advanced areas going a bit sooner.
     
  16. Rabid K9

    Rabid K9 Dedicated Member
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    The fella caught doing 179km/h in icy conditions? What a genius.
     
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  17. 2cool

    2cool Just Registered

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    GFS getting optimistic [​IMG]
     
  18. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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  19. glengary

    glengary Well-Known Member
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    Starting to look the goods
     
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  20. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Wicked little cut off Low a brewing below Perth.
     
  21. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    This is one to watch...
     
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  22. hongomania

    hongomania Dedicated Member

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    Looks like winter now, unlike last week. Clouds cleared off peaks at sunset.

    [​IMG]
     
  23. Seafm

    Seafm Dedicated Member
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    So you do my job for me and I'll stand in for you in Jindy. Deal?
     
  24. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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  25. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Gotta love the pause/ play button on the Forecast GIFS atm Claude.
     
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  26. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    You dont see anomolies like this from EC very often.
     
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  27. AJS

    AJS Well-Known Member

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    Taking this with a massive pinch of salt so to speak, but wondering if there's something you guys can see on the cards that can point to what sort of system WZ are calling for the 2nd-5th Aug? Hoping it's something cold..? Will be arriving at Thredbo on the 3rd (til 6th) Aug for my first trip of the season so am very interested to hear any thoughts, even though I know it's pretty tricky with the 14th-17th beauty, and 20th newby (as per CC's post) systems still to come..?
     
  28. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    GFS 20th.
    [​IMG]
     
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  29. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    It's pretty much make believe time frame.
     
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  30. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Where do they get that information??? That's pretty far out.
     
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  31. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    20th still looks pretty good on EC
     
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  32. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    yep. spag hinting at it maybe getting ridged out a bit.
     
  33. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Won't be a monster, but add another 20-30 on top of what we get this weekend and it will do nicely.
     
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  34. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    more than nicely. put 70cm on the ground by next weekend and we're laughing.
     
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  35. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage
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    Counting the numbers pointed to 1st week of august awhile ago, but as i said then i reckon predicting snowfall for the first week of august is better than 50/50 anyways.
     
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  36. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage
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    Re my post above
     
  37. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    So this would be the 1st (or probably last weeks system?) node of such consequence to look for again in a months time?
    Gives a fairly stark picture of how short our window for snowfall can be.... one node may only pass us twice in a period that might be reasonably expected to result in snowfall.*

    *Bearing in mind that early june and mid-late September are less likely to bring fresh snowfall.
     
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  38. Xwing

    Xwing Well-Known Member

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  39. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    Yeah Nah has 80-90cm of snow falling between now and Friday week.
     
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  40. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    This would be the 10 day forecast (-6 hours), which still indicates a metre for the next 10 days, including all three systems.

    The Thursday-Friday week system looks like 30-50cm on EC ATM.
    It also looks much deeper (pressure and heights) and colder than the two preceding systems. But I would expect a downgrade to this system.

    But looks amazing!
     
    #740 Jellybeans1000, Jul 12, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 12, 2017
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  41. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU Dedicated Member
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  42. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Perisher bottomed out at -9.8
    11.30 last night.
    Now back to -1.1 already.
     
  43. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    jeepers!!!
    They'd have made some snow!!!!
     
  44. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Stilll going to be blardy cold out there .
    Check the wind chill....
     
  45. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Guns are suprisingly silent right now.
    Thinking it's the humidity stopping them flicking the switch.
    I thought the wet bulb would be way lower , hence why I checked the Site.
     
  46. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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  47. motty

    motty Active Member

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    I saw in Jane's forecast this morning she talks about OCF as a weighted average of all forecasts.

    I've never seen it posted on here before. Does anyone use it or is it reflected in other maps like the BOM 4 day and therefore redundant?

    Does anyone have a link to it? My Google fu has failed
     
  48. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    This would be an explanation: http://www.australianweathernews.com/sitepages/forecasts/forecast_OCF_help.htm
    It's basically an old multi model ensemble, the latest one is WATL. But I am pretty sure OCF data uses the latest models, otherwise Jane wouldn't use it.

    OCF Victorian resorts: http://www.australianweathernews.com/OCF/OCF_083.HTM

    OCF NSW resorts:
    http://www.australianweathernews.com/OCF/OCF_071.HTM
     
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  49. motty

    motty Active Member

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    Cheers. Is there a graphical map generated or does it just spit out numbers?

    Where would our gurus consider the OCF lies in regards to accuracy? Going off jellys links above it seems pretty conservative in regards to temp for tomorrow. Barely getting into the negatives in the Vic resorts which seems a bit far fetched
     
  50. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Yep there is a graphical map...
    http://stormcast.com.au/stormcast.html?ops=ocf:2017071218:2017071218:aus:probrainocf:null:0#sc
    OCF is a multi model ensemble which means it is an average of several weather models. It is more accurate than these models individually, but it isn't very good at showing outlier scenarios or isolated totals. So I prefer to monitor models separately, but if you are short of time and want to see a rough guess of all the models at once, this is awesome. And WATL is also very good for this.
     
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