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Discussion in 'Weather' started by POW_hungry, May 31, 2017.
Snowsense on the book are putting out stats thusly...(example at this stage I think). Not sure on all of it but if you're into and haven't seen, perhaps check them out.
Some more W.A. specials like last year.
I'm liking what I see on 00Z GFS for this time next week. Some nice cold upper temps if it comes off.
Both GFS and EC have liked it for a few days.
The other models have not though, and given how this year has gone, I'm not too confident.
I'm booked to go to Perth on the 17th so that should be the week everything lines up in the mountains.
I hope so - I'll be passing you on the way!
I gotta go to cairns that weekend so the second I leave jindy it'll be on.
New date range thread up.
Not so much a snow quality issue, more quantity!
Certainly agree. I've been there and done that on Bluff Knoll!
But to me it's not the instance of snow that's noteworthy, but moreso it's the two times in two weeks (it's usually a once a year occurance at best) spells out some big anomalies occurring on the west coast, and interestingly enough last winter played out similarly.
Hope cast I know but GFS has gone all in for the next couple of weeks. Systems racked up and stacked out to the 25th+ The Vibe is strong.
1st week system - 14th
2nd system - 17th to the 19th
3rd/4th system - 23rd to 25th+
Meanwhile, over the pond things are getting serious.
· 3 hrs ·
The country is preparing for its worst winter storm of the year with rain, snow and gales set to batter much of New Zealand.
Heavy snow and rain to fall for days
Was up around Jindy a few weeks back, just before the season started to take some star-lapses - only just got around to editing them. Really shows how clear that mountain air is, it always surprises me as a city kid
This one was taken from kosciusko road, looking back down over jindy from that big tower thing
And this one is from the clearing in sawpit creek campground
Not strictly weather related but i thought some of you may be interested!
Looks like this is the season for accumulation rather than dumps. One good dump would be nice though, to get the advanced areas going a bit sooner.
The fella caught doing 179km/h in icy conditions? What a genius.
GFS getting optimistic
Starting to look the goods
Wicked little cut off Low a brewing below Perth.
This is one to watch...
Looks like winter now, unlike last week. Clouds cleared off peaks at sunset.
So you do my job for me and I'll stand in for you in Jindy. Deal?
You want MOAR?
Gotta love the pause/ play button on the Forecast GIFS atm Claude.
You dont see anomolies like this from EC very often.
Taking this with a massive pinch of salt so to speak, but wondering if there's something you guys can see on the cards that can point to what sort of system WZ are calling for the 2nd-5th Aug? Hoping it's something cold..? Will be arriving at Thredbo on the 3rd (til 6th) Aug for my first trip of the season so am very interested to hear any thoughts, even though I know it's pretty tricky with the 14th-17th beauty, and 20th newby (as per CC's post) systems still to come..?
It's pretty much make believe time frame.
Where do they get that information??? That's pretty far out.
20th still looks pretty good on EC
yep. spag hinting at it maybe getting ridged out a bit.
Won't be a monster, but add another 20-30 on top of what we get this weekend and it will do nicely.
more than nicely. put 70cm on the ground by next weekend and we're laughing.
Counting the numbers pointed to 1st week of august awhile ago, but as i said then i reckon predicting snowfall for the first week of august is better than 50/50 anyways.
Re my post above
So this would be the 1st (or probably last weeks system?) node of such consequence to look for again in a months time?
Gives a fairly stark picture of how short our window for snowfall can be.... one node may only pass us twice in a period that might be reasonably expected to result in snowfall.*
*Bearing in mind that early june and mid-late September are less likely to bring fresh snowfall.
Burkes Pass New Zealand - near Tekapo
Yeah Nah has 80-90cm of snow falling between now and Friday week.
This would be the 10 day forecast (-6 hours), which still indicates a metre for the next 10 days, including all three systems.
The Thursday-Friday week system looks like 30-50cm on EC ATM.
It also looks much deeper (pressure and heights) and colder than the two preceding systems. But I would expect a downgrade to this system.
But looks amazing!
Just a timely reminder for those who have the memory... this time 2 years ago we had the "polar vortex"
Perisher bottomed out at -9.8
11.30 last night.
Now back to -1.1 already.
They'd have made some snow!!!!
Stilll going to be blardy cold out there .
Check the wind chill....
Guns are suprisingly silent right now.
Thinking it's the humidity stopping them flicking the switch.
I thought the wet bulb would be way lower , hence why I checked the Site.
I saw in Jane's forecast this morning she talks about OCF as a weighted average of all forecasts.
I've never seen it posted on here before. Does anyone use it or is it reflected in other maps like the BOM 4 day and therefore redundant?
Does anyone have a link to it? My Google fu has failed
This would be an explanation: http://www.australianweathernews.com/sitepages/forecasts/forecast_OCF_help.htm
It's basically an old multi model ensemble, the latest one is WATL. But I am pretty sure OCF data uses the latest models, otherwise Jane wouldn't use it.
OCF Victorian resorts: http://www.australianweathernews.com/OCF/OCF_083.HTM
OCF NSW resorts:
Cheers. Is there a graphical map generated or does it just spit out numbers?
Where would our gurus consider the OCF lies in regards to accuracy? Going off jellys links above it seems pretty conservative in regards to temp for tomorrow. Barely getting into the negatives in the Vic resorts which seems a bit far fetched
Yep there is a graphical map...
OCF is a multi model ensemble which means it is an average of several weather models. It is more accurate than these models individually, but it isn't very good at showing outlier scenarios or isolated totals. So I prefer to monitor models separately, but if you are short of time and want to see a rough guess of all the models at once, this is awesome. And WATL is also very good for this.