Predictions Weak systems 23rd -29th July

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Claude Cat, Jul 19, 2017.

  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Possibly worth a new thread. I'll have a look tonight.
     
  2. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Kind of all roles into one period.

    [​IMG]
     
  3. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope Dedicated Member
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    I wish it was!
     
  4. dmz

    dmz Dedicated Member
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    I'm in Norway at the moment and noticed that the bureau of met website here is www.yr.no. Is that the site that is often referred to here? Is it because they do charts that no other Mets do?
     
  5. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Yep. They produce EC data in an easy to access website, which isn't accessible to the general public.
     
  6. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    Bom have wound back moisture on 4.30pm update for falls/Hotham for Wednesday. Sunday looking potentially dire
     
  7. bondibob

    bondibob Active Member

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    I don't think Sunday is all that bad really. Yes warm and #£%+.

    But seems we are predicted to get totals for Sunday - 10mm? With a cheeky 5cm snow?

    That's really not the end of the world. I was at thredbo for the two 100mm+ events last year (how unlucky can you get) and the snow holds up very well considering
     
  8. blueandwhite

    blueandwhite Active Member

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    Yeah I mean on the positive side of the ledger since we're driving to Hotham from Mt Beauty on Sunday we won't need to fit chains on the ascent. Should I take a snorkel instead?

    Observationally speaking though am slightly disconcerted by the continuously rising temperature at Falls all afternoon with moisture inbound...
     
  9. Budgiesmuggler

    Budgiesmuggler Addicted Member
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    Jane is actually predicting snow for the Sunday:

    "The next high quickly moves through, and northerly winds strengthen from Saturday afternoon. The next front brings rain early Sunday, changing to snow on Sunday morning, and persisting through the day. Then the next front moves through on Monday with more snow - so we can expect 15 to 25 cm of snow on Sunday and Monday. "
     
  10. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    IMO I'm seeing bugger all snow on Sunday. The good news is that the amount of moisture that EC is showing has decreased.
    So I'd say 5cm above 1800m rain otherwise.
     
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  11. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope Dedicated Member
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    BOM predicting winds of up to 85kmh for Perisher on Saturday. I predict I will having a t-bar sort of day!
     
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  12. Budgiesmuggler

    Budgiesmuggler Addicted Member
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    So likely to get moisture or has it downgraded
     
  13. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    Looks a true WA peak SE slider.
    Ah well. Surf looks good.
     
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  14. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Almost gone now. Which is just as well as it was pretty warm on Sunday morning.
    Friday still looks ok for 5-10cm though IMO
     
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  15. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    Yep
     
  16. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Yes , dried out considerably thankfully from yesterdays .
    STill warm below 2000m till Sun. morning
     
  17. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    GFS hanging in there. - indeed looks pretty good

    [​IMG]
     
  18. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    ~15-20mm wet, ~10cm frozen.
     
  19. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    And cmc

    [​IMG]

    But note run time
     
  20. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    gotta look at the heights earlier .
    still sketchy yes....
    [​IMG]
     
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  21. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    >~1700m okay..
     
  22. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    I see GFS the other way around at 1500/1600
     
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  23. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    I'm conservative... Cause GFS....
     
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  24. Budgiesmuggler

    Budgiesmuggler Addicted Member
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    How's the wind at vic resorts this weekend?
     
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  25. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Yep.
    Bit higher for NSW.
    rule of thumb 1 deg / 100m
     
  26. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    AXS has been the most reliable last month or so.
    IMO.
     
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  27. Rush

    Rush Pool Room
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    Hairdyrer alert for Saturday
    [​IMG]
     
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  28. Rush

    Rush Pool Room
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    Wind hold a plenty I would think.
     
  29. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    Yuck - do not like

    At this time of year that's terrible, bit like that torrential rain event through July last season
     
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  30. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN Well-Known Member

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    yep and with the small base it will do some damage.
     
  31. Hermon

    Hermon Dedicated Member

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    Not pretty, but 00Z GFS has backed off on the peak 850HPa temps a little IMO. At least next week looks like a return to winter with reasonably chilly temps (i.e -3 850HPa temp on Tuesday).
     
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  32. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Yeah temps seem half what they where forecast couple of days ago.
    Still not ideal but we can consider it an upgrade of sorts....
    [​IMG]

    Of interest the models do seem to be calc the adiabatic cooling / topography .

    [​IMG]

    They all within reason across the main 3 models. 2 or 4 degs @1480 m

    [​IMG]
     
  33. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Dont expect snow below 2000 for Saturday into Sunday IMO. Warm moist feed around 700hPa and dry brisk uppers knocking the tops off.
     
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  34. Vandans

    Vandans Active Member

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    BOM Sunday
    Snowy Mountains area
    Partly cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of showers about the alpine peaks, medium (40%) chance elsewhere. Later tending to snow falling above 1500 metres. Winds northwesterly 30 to 45 km/h.
     
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  35. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Entropy can be a mongrel sometimes.
     
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  36. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    EC suggesting < 5mm on Sunday.

    [​IMG]
     
  37. Warlock_01

    Warlock_01 Active Member

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    A mate of mine is planning a day trip to Hotham this Saturday, I said to him to give it a miss because of the winds. Are they still predicted to be gale force? What will Sunday be like?
     
  38. Makazaru

    Makazaru Active Member

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    I predict that giving anyone advice based off amateur forecasts, on weather, snow depth, quality of beer at the pub or otherwise, is a great way to have it turn bluebird on your mate while he's sitting at home. This season has been rubbish for all but short range forecasts, and even they've been all over the joint. I'd point him here and let him make up his own mind, or descend further into confused madness.. as is more likely the case :)
     
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  39. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    You could place a sizeable bet on it being windy.
     
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  40. Rick Ross Da Boss

    Rick Ross Da Boss New Member

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    anyone here use the app 'storm' ?
     
  41. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo
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    This weekend. Saturday sun. Strong wind arrival in the morning in VIC resorts. Mid afternoon NSW resorts.

    Saturday night. Hold onto your hats folks.

    Sunday. Moisture arrival late Sat VIC. Early Sun NSW. Nothing crazy but on and off all day. Winds easing all day.

    All IMO.

    Not a great weekend IMO.
     
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  42. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    IMO it's going to be mostly dry.
    Biggest risk is in the south, for Buller. Perhaps 5mm rain.
    Bugger all further north as it stands.
    Saturday will be windy, but it's done by Sunday.
    Far from the worst weekend IMO.
     
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  43. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo
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    GFS suggesting NSW will have a reasonable Sat morning wind wise, IMO. VIC is a different story.

     
  44. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    I suspect NSW will start copping it in the afternoon.
    Anyway, it could have been far worse.
     
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  45. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo
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    Agree. But looking at GFS, I'm seeing more than 5mm for VIC Sunday. I'm thinking 10-15mm for VIC Sunday. 5-8mm for NSW. IMO.

    I'm headed to Perisher. So I'd love to be wrong.
     
  46. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    IMO EC is showing 5-8mm for Buller down to <1mm for Perisher. Numbers anywhere in-between for locations between those two.
     
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  47. Ramshead

    Ramshead Dedicated Member

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    I predict it's about to start puking from about 11pm onwards. Big blob on radar and nice temps. Why are we all talking about the 48 hr range when the next few hrs looks minty?!
     
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  48. chriscross

    chriscross Dedicated Member
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    North Westerly wind?
     
  49. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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  50. Hunter

    Hunter Part of the Furniture
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    Agree