The Japanese season 2011-2012 weather

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Sandy, Dec 16, 2011.

  1.  
    smitty484

    smitty484 Old And Crusty

    by forecast do you mean snow-forecast? If you do, ignore snowfall amounts. Last weekend they predicted about 4-5cm for cortina, but 60cm fell.
  2.  
    Ppk

    Ppk New Member

    Yeah, snow-forcast, What should i look at for forcasts? Im planning to come to either hakuba or myoko, Super last minute, like leave tomorrow night (possibly) or the night after and i havent booked anything yet so it depends on actualy finding accoms' but at this point in the season i wouldnt think it would be to hard. The question is, it might not be worth it for 6-8 days if im not going to get much new snow, read: Powder.
  3.  
    Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator

    It's hard to tell....

    The position of the low on Thursday will determine the wind direction into Friday. If it tracks further north (across Vladivostok, for example), then there will be stronger northerlies, and more snow.

    Snow-forecast is not good for snow fall amounts in Japan, but better for freeze level.
  4.  
    Ppk

    Ppk New Member

    Also, cortina is a bit different in the way snow falls right?

    And sandy where do you get that sort of weather data from? But i guess i was asking historically about this time in the season. its warmed up a fair bit.

    What do you guys look at for forcasts?
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  5.  
    smitty484

    smitty484 Old And Crusty

    14 day GFS:
    http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/ipsm_looper.php?PROD=2012011518_KOJ_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_RH

    Access and 9 day gfs:
    http://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/?lt=wzireg&lc=asia

    http://www.snow-forecast.com

    EC:
    http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/...s!2010012812!!/

    JMA:
    http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/indexe.html

    Cloud cover map:
    http://weather.is.kochi-u.ac.jp/FE/00Latest.jpg

    9 day unysis (upper levels):
    http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/9panel/gfsx_500p_9panel_easia.gif

    yr.no:
    http://www.yr.no/

    IMO though, if you want a quick snap shot then snow-forecast is pretty good. Just ignore snowfall amounts. However I find it's generally pretty good with predicting overall weather events in the 1-3 day range. 3-6 day range is generally still pretty good, however 6-9 day range is less accurate again.
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  6.  
    Ppk

    Ppk New Member

    Wow that first one looks like it could be usefull... unfortunately i have no idea how to read it....

    I guess im asking whats the deal with this time of year.
    its definatly going to be warm and probably rain the nest day or 2, but it will get cold again after, but will it be back to business as usual, or is it just not going to be any more big dumps? Im asking as from your past experiences from this time of year in these regeions.
  7.  
    damian

    damian Addicted Member

    This chart is on my blog and may or may not help. http://www.steepdeepjapan.com/content/weather-data-charts

    Go to Hokkaido if you want a better chance of consistent cold temps and powder.

    Nagano is almost 1000km south of Hokkaido and it makes a huge difference as the spring solstice approaches. Middle Japan is a mild-weather place in the absence of Siberian systems. You could get rain or powder or +10C days in the next two weeks.
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  8.  
    Ppk

    Ppk New Member

    Yeah i was just thinking Hokkaido... the blue bits seem to miss central honshu but cover hokkaido...

    PS thanks for all your help everyone!
  9.  
    damian

    damian Addicted Member

    It is simply a naturally colder weather environment in Hokkaido.

    That 1000km south is more like 850km. However it is 850km closer to the tropics, and it doesn't take much to suck the warmth up to Nagano and Niigata. Both are parts of Japan that teeter on the border between arctic north and tropical south, and hence very sensitive to the weather patterns, particularly as deep winter comes to an end.

  10.  
    randomlyred

    randomlyred New Member

    Should I be canceling then? I can't go to Hokkaido but if it's going to be this bad on honshu maybe I should be cutting my losses and staying home?
  11.  
    Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator

    Hmmmmmm....... as luck would have it, it's hovering just above zero at Hakuba weather station this morning, and precipitating, so it might be snowing there!!!!! And if it's snowing down there, it MAY be snowing up on the mountains!!!!!!

    However, I think there must be a temperature inversion, as I'm sure the Freeze level should be up around 2000m this morning.

    Smitty will be able to tell us more.....
  12.  
    Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator

    What do you consider to be bad?

    Generally speaking, central Japan resorts will get a few episodes of powder during March.....there will also be some warm weather. If you booked for early March originally, then this is what you should expect.
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  13.  
    Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator

    ############################

    forget it.

    There was somethinng wrong with the JMA data this morning!!!!!!!
  14.  
    damian

    damian Addicted Member

    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  15.  
    randomlyred

    randomlyred New Member

    If its going to be icy and raining, I might reconsider going.
  16.  
    Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator

    I think the whole site was not updating this morning. I just looked again and the data is different. [​IMG]
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  17.  
    smitty484

    smitty484 Old And Crusty

    Pouring rain here this morning. It's nasty out there. Funny though, there was about 1cm of snow last night, but it is al rain rain rain rain now.

    Edit: ok, not pouring Brisbane style, but still very steady rain out there.
  18.  
    Ppk

    Ppk New Member

    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  19.  
    skichanger

    skichanger Dedicated Member

    Very light rain here at Akakura. Might be heavier further up the mountain. A good day to do chores or be a tourist and not ski. The little ray of sunshine for me is that the snow on my roof is reducing.
  20.  
    Pelm1

    Pelm1 Active Member


    Not much rain here in Nozawa about 1 mm if that... very windy though.. good day for a rest day.... that and the bad head from last night .
  21.  
    damian

    damian Addicted Member

    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  22.  
    Ppk

    Ppk New Member

    Not a meaningless comparison, if like me, you are trying to choose where to go right now... [​IMG]
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  23.  
    Chuck Norris

    Chuck Norris Dedicated Member

    Looks like some wild weather Sunday/Monday for Hokkaido at least.
  24.  
    damian

    damian Addicted Member

    Very meaningful in that case! [​IMG]

    Happy travels.
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  25.  
    Go Native

    Go Native New Member

    Arrived in Hirafu today. It was pretty mild, getting up to around 2 degrees but there's been no rain at all. It started snowing in the afternoon and has continued fairly lightly into this evening. It's only just below freezing though so it's not the driest snow at village level. Hoping it continues to cool off and snow throughout the night.
  26.  
    smitty484

    smitty484 Old And Crusty

    moist warm humid aussie like mid mountain fog conditions in hakuba today... super windy tonight as well, reminds me of a ECL type weather in aus... though it must be below zero now as the guns looked on at 47 -goryu. yes this is Donza posting on smitty sans outer ..stupid swedes poach ip addresses like they poach lines
  27.  
    Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator

    Snowing here in Hakuba this morning [​IMG]
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  28.  
    bobly

    bobly Active Member

    ^ what they said! I'm about a day away from booking two weeks at Niseko. Hoping to get some decent conditions. [​IMG]
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  29.  
    Go Native

    Go Native New Member

    Surprising amount of snow today in Niseko. Surprising because no one was forecasting it.
  30.  
    fletch

    fletch Dedicated Member Season Pass Holder

    Quote Rod White
    "There was easily 30 --40 cm up high of very dry powder. These Feb guests calling it the best powder day of their lives....and I would have to admit ...it was prety darn sweet.
    We came in with still huge areas of untouched paddocks and lines in the trees going begging. Tomorrow's morning program is looking good !"
  31.  
    Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator

    Snowing heavily here in Yokohama this morning!!!!
  32.  
    fletch

    fletch Dedicated Member Season Pass Holder

    Looks like we are back on .....
  33.  
    smitty484

    smitty484 Old And Crusty

    The current forecast certainly looks a lot more promising for Hokkaido than Honshu
  34.  
    damian

    damian Addicted Member

    Fletch, you reek of vested interests. Got any?

    Are you in Niseko right now?

    This is a weather forum, all you needed to say was "30-40cm dry powder" to be objective. The rest was irresistible [re]spin marketing on your behalf.
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  35.  
    Donza

    Donza Pool Room Season Pass Holder

    This
    btw "paddocks and lines" made me larf...has rod run outta adjectives.
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  36.  
    damian

    damian Addicted Member

    For the record I have and would continue to say the same thing when there is Hakuba spin in the weather forum as well.

    And yes, "paddocks" is not a word I'd use to describe a ski or snowboard environment if I were a spin spruiker like this RW character. I guess when the season is getting on and your pretenses are not as robust, you let your guard down and reality starts to slip through in your language.

    It is snowing lightly again in Hakuba, has been on and off for a few days since the rain for little more than 20-30cm as of yesterday.

    In that same time period you could have gone 2 hours drive to Charmant Hyuchi and had 50cm. Or to Seaside Valley for a similar amount.

    Next week looks a bit warm for lower elevations in Nagano/Niigata?
  37.  
    Donza

    Donza Pool Room Season Pass Holder

    Yeah next week (sunday onwards for 72 hours) looks dire for honshu
    a moist warm and tight system born in Taiwan slides up the side of Honshu.....bringing rain..moist SE winds and high humidity...
    In Australian terms it would be similar to a ECL sliding down from Norfolk island.
  38.  
    smitty484

    smitty484 Old And Crusty

    50cm is too much for seaside, we tried [​IMG] [​IMG] (in resort anyway)
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  39.  
    smitty484

    smitty484 Old And Crusty

    What's nasty about next week is that once that rain event rolls through the high behind it doesn't look strong enough to deliver good follow up snow (at this stage anyway) IMO
  40.  
    Go Native

    Go Native New Member

    Snowing very lightly this morning in the village in Hirafu. Conditions will be excellent this morning but it is expected to get slightly above freezing later today so lower slopes will get a little heavy. I have to have a rest day today though. Been 6 days straight now and did a pretty big backcountry trip yesterday, legs are shot.
  41.  
    Donza

    Donza Pool Room Season Pass Holder

    I think it might have been closer to 90 [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  42.  
    Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator

    2cm of accummulated snow on the streets of Yokohama so far!!!
  43.  
    bobly

    bobly Active Member

    Hmmmmmmmmmmmm......

    Would you guys blow $5-6k on 14 days in Niseko from next week with the current weather predicitions? I'm just a bit worried that for the amount I'm going to spend I'm not getting ideal conditions.

    Yes or no is fine.... I know it's a judgement call, I just don't have past experiences to use as a guide.. so interested in hearing what you think.

    b.
  44.  
    Donza

    Donza Pool Room Season Pass Holder

    well 5-6 k would last me 6 weeks nearly in Niseko...but i digrees...


    Niseko will be pretty good...IMO
    all of Hokkaido will be
  45.  
    Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator

    Now 3cm in Yokohama.
  46.  
    Donza

    Donza Pool Room Season Pass Holder

    [​IMG]

    Tokyo
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  47.  
    bobly

    bobly Active Member

    Sorry that includes Prem Economy flights, nice apararment with ski in / out and a decent budget for food. I could go cheaper if I wanted to I guess.. but I need spoiling.

    [​IMG]
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  48.  
    Donza

    Donza Pool Room Season Pass Holder

    I would go
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  49.  
    damian

    damian Addicted Member

    It is a little hard to forecast 14 days starting from next week. With Niseko, the odds of ok conditions based on weather are in your favour. Go for it, with fingers crossed knowing that mean reversion has so far not dogged them.
  50.  
    Donza

    Donza Pool Room Season Pass Holder

    times two
    If I have the option if going skiing I do
    and let the weather work itself out
    Niseko can snow 50cm overnight yet show insipid model projections
    just ask rod white
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013