Mega Thread The Autumn, winter's not far away thread!

Discussion in 'Weather' started by jwx, Mar 1, 2017.

  1.  
    Rabid K9

    Rabid K9 Dedicated Member Season Pass Silver

    Sadist. Perfect weather starts at minus 9!!
     
  2.  
    Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Season Pass Gold

  3.  
    tele-whippet

    tele-whippet beard stroker Season Pass Gold

  4.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Surf. Wait in traffic. Pay toll bills. You know all the fun shit you country folk can't always take advantage of...
     
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  5.  
    jwx

    jwx Active Member

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  6.  
    jwx

    jwx Active Member

    [​IMG]
    Mel forecast precip cm's
     
  7.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Some big-ole towers passing through Nambucca Heads/Coffs. Steering winds forcing most of it onshore.
     
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  8.  
    jwx

    jwx Active Member

    [​IMG] Beastly on the end of the run. Ark time if this verifys the low out to the east, would ride the ridge west a double whammy.




    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Mar 18, 2017
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  9.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    That's a good ridge-clearer.
     
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  10.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    Question is will it verify? I hope it does.
     
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  11.  
    jwx

    jwx Active Member

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  12.  
    tele-whippet

    tele-whippet beard stroker Season Pass Gold

    Only 74 mm here yesterday.
    Still raining - heavier and more consistently than yesterday, with storms forecast also.
    Wet.
     
  13.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    As far as the snow season goes I am certainly ok with a mild La Nina phase, although it's somewhat going against model outcomes.
    That said, we can find solace in the fact of the model's have low accuracy at this time of year.
     
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  14.  
    MickM

    MickM Dedicated Member Season Pass Silver

    Very summery & dry near Ballarat atm. Even the nights are mild. Looking forward to the cooler Autumn weather when it arrives.
     
  15.  
    Bluebird

    Bluebird Old And Crusty Season Pass Gold

    Nothing but clear blue skies in Melbourne again today
     
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  16.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    And we're back!

    Tropical Tidbits now has soundings/skew-Ts for Worldwide GFS.
    [​IMG]
    This is a forecast sounding for Melbourne 10am today. Pretty awesome!
     
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  17.  
    Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Season Pass Gold

    yep was going to throw that ^ in the links thread..
     
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  18.  
    Hermon

    Hermon Dedicated Member

    Humid as this morning in Central Vic (DP currently 20c). Feels primed to go Boom this afternoon/evening.

    Looking forward to seeing some cooler weather soon.
     
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  19.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    Done.

    Very muggy in Melbourne. Waiting for the proper front to clear the crap out.
     
  20.  
    Xwing

    Xwing Active Member

  21.  
    jwx

    jwx Active Member

    consensus btw ens cold shot mid n/week. If the lower heights push further
    N could even get frosty on the ranges in nsw.
    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]
    Canuck ens break away cutoff/polar low .
     
    Last edited: Mar 20, 2017
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  22.  
    Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture Season Pass Gold

    pissing down in Dubbo again.
     
  23.  
    Edgecrusher

    Edgecrusher Pool Room Season Pass Gold

    Some cells now popping up on the Melb Metro radar. One in the Yarra Valley, and a couple over Melton and Meredith. A line of cells has crossed over from the Riverina and over the Murray, now heading south into Central and NE Vic.
    STW out for a large swathe of Victoria, including Melbourne:
    [​IMG]
     
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  24.  
    nfip

    nfip Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Crikey , time to dust off the big boards again Pow !!!!
     
  25.  
    nfip

    nfip Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Yass and Cbr district also in the firing line.

     

    Attached Files:

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  26.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    I would suggest not very good.
     
  27.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Trough line building to the NNE of Melbourne, moving S. I am thinking the arse will fall out of it as nightfall takes hold.
    Should reach the city limits in the next 1.25 hours.
    But it does look to linger until later into the week which is quiet unique for Southern Vic.
     
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  28.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    This is handy but use with some degree of caution (the above is actually for 11am local, using 6 hour old data), as you can see it can never be reliable as BOM's obs which clearly slow some variance:
    [​IMG]
     
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  29.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    It might not make it to Melbourne. Seabreeze is killing most of the storms that come near Melbourne and the coast. Tomorrow is going to be a soaker for Melbourne, 20-35mm with the front
     
  30.  
    nfip

    nfip Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Are you terming the front of this Northerly feed , for want of better term ?
    [​IMG]
     
  31.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Trough
     
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  32.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Hotham just picked up 13mm in the last hour, 18mm in the last 90 mins.
     
  33.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    This @nfip

    Seabreeze is weakening as we speak, maybe the skyline will be lit up tonight.
     
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  34.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Seems localised and shallow (bay breeze?).
    I think Eastern Burbs will get a little soaking out of this. Firing up over Flowerdale.
     
    Last edited: Mar 20, 2017
  35.  
    jwx

    jwx Active Member

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]


    Lines appear to be coming off the pv streamer off the low/trof.
     
  36.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    This particular tropical feed taps into a MJO above Australia before it weakens completely.
     
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  37.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    Yeah a bay breeze. Some are calling it a Melbourne and particularly SE Suburbs forcefield
     
  38.  
    Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Coupla months to go . Geopot goodness will be upon us.
     
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  39.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    BOM Warning issued.
    [​IMG]
     
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  40.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    Nope, Buller has snow already. If that's what you are talking about;)
     
  41.  
    Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Little bitta fetch .
     
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  42.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Squal line starting to weaken and break up around Northern outer subs of Melbs.
    ~5mm in some locations still possible, IMO.
     
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  43.  
    jwx

    jwx Active Member

    stevie wonder could see the avection along the streamer.
    Fluids show quite clear.
    [​IMG]
     
  44.  
    Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Yep.
     
  45.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    [​IMG]
     
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  46.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    Bloody seabreeze
    Edit: It might hit me in Box Hill if it doesn't weaken too much.
     
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  47.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    Hence comment about MJO. That feed has to come from somewhere.
     
  48.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Ridge be gone. GFS showing a weak polar vort during early April. EC kinda keen on it too.
    I see exactly where Andrew's coming from in that statement.
     
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  49.  
    Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    This Madden Julian stuff has me somewhat perplexed. Worth investigating ?
     
  50.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    GFS Polar Vortex Forecast looking really juicy IMO. Andrew is onto something. We'll see where SAM goes and the stratosphere set up. Nothing is locked in, but it looks like Autumn is coming.
    [​IMG]
     
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