Mega Thread The Autumn, winter's not far away thread!

Discussion in 'Weather' started by jwx, Mar 1, 2017.

  1. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    worth watching the ec runs over the weekend Sunday's run.

    Tassie looking a good thing for weather, and if the systems can
    punch a few hundred km's N then vic will benefit.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
    Thinking Sundays 00Z wil sort this 23rd period out once and for all.

    .
     
    #1051 jwx, May 19, 2017
    Last edited: May 19, 2017
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  2. telecrag

    telecrag Part of the Furniture
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    Entire east coast lighting up on the radar now, looks cool.
     
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  3. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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  4. rocketboy

    rocketboy Dedicated Member
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    meanwhile, in Boulder CO today ...

     
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  5. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    1-3 feet in the Colorado mountains today. Very impressive for Late May.
     
  6. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Thinkng this based on the current system(s) will be clear and the models will have done a clean refresh ?
     
  7. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    Bom model nailed the timing of the k/wave over the eq @80e
    Strong wwb is also associated with this mjo cckw.

    [​IMG]



    [​IMG]
     
  8. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    I'm thinking maybe there is noise with the current tropical flow in the modelling.
    The east coast mess is forecast to clear on Sunday thus the reason.
     
  9. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    Melb delivered (all but) nothing so far

    Big effin tease thus far...
     
  10. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    Same for Canberra so far.
     
  11. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    Since 9 am
    [​IMG]
     
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  12. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    So a Kelvin wave is associated with a WWB?
     
  13. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    There was a bit of a light rain at various points of the day here in Box Hill.
     
  14. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    indeed the kelvin wave is due to westerly wind forcing in the equatorial IO.
     
    #1064 jwx, May 19, 2017
    Last edited: May 19, 2017
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  15. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

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    23.6 mm at Tumba , hardly worth the news time is occupied over the past few days.
     
  16. Rush

    Rush Pool Room
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  17. SMSkier

    SMSkier Dedicated Member

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    Getting hammered with heavy rain at Moonbah on the lee side of the MR. If Perisher is getting it as well then goodbye to that little snow pile.
     
  18. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    Didn't get the rain the clouds seem to threaten early in Melb

    Certainly nothing I would remotely call a storm
     
  19. shauno

    shauno Active Member

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    Not much in Canberra but 42mm at Mt Ginini nearby.
     
  20. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Hmmm. Whats happening with the IOD ?
     
    #1070 Kletterer, May 19, 2017
    Last edited: May 19, 2017
  21. kimberlee81

    kimberlee81 Dedicated Member

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    Appears to be some white stuff on the steps and vegetation of the Village Square cam at Buller...
     
  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    at +5C, I strongly doubt it
     
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  23. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    [​IMG]
    The majority and average of models are going for Warm Neutral or Borderline El Niño. CFS has cooling conditions to about 0.2. There needs to a bit of distiguishment here.
    These show the ENSO forecasts for the last 2 years.
    [​IMG]
    So you can see what happened (the black dots) last El Niño about +2.7. Current model average for the height of this one is +0.7. You can see the forecasts for La Niña in Late 2016. And you can see the current El Niño forecasts for later this year...

    However OLR around the date line has decreased and the SOI is lowering to El Niño levels. Need to see a decent WWB or two though. Not seeing any decent WWBs on GFS, but a mild one in the Eastern Pacific.
    [​IMG]
     
  24. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    A non event in Melbourne. As I expected.
     
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  25. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    After a late start, Canberra ended up with 31mm and Mt Ginini 88mm.

    Perisher had 33mm, but the base of the magic carpet is hanging in there ;)

    [​IMG]
     
    #1075 DidSurfNowSki, May 20, 2017
    Last edited: May 20, 2017
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  26. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    [​IMG]

    The 12z run looked a tad further N with the embedded lows slingshoting around the
    vorticity within the trough.
     
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  27. woggybot

    woggybot Dedicated Member

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    LOL
    Tanks gods!! LOLLOLLOL
     
  28. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    SIO data when low pressure has been over the region ie mt is unreliable.
    The plot you posted depicts quite strong cooling easterlies out past the date line,
    As you know its the opposite to what is seen when a nino is forthcoming.

    Current sst don't support .any nino logic and certainty the atmosphere is
    not even close to nino.

    [​IMG]

    If sst plots keep follow this trend you will likely see the models swing back to lanina
    forecasts.
     
    #1078 jwx, May 20, 2017
    Last edited: May 20, 2017
  29. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    Does look like a little southerly push on EC for Wednesday PM. You're right.
    Some snow above 1800m Wednesday perhaps and maybe another shot Friday AM.

    1st still looks on track with EC Ensemble still going with it also.
     
    #1079 POW_hungry, May 20, 2017
    Last edited: May 20, 2017
  30. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    And a strengthening +IOD trend.
     
    #1080 POW_hungry, May 20, 2017
    Last edited: May 20, 2017
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  31. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    Freezing level is lower on Friday IMO.
     
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  32. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    Sure is, but it's also further away and a little drier with some Tassie shadowing IMO.;)
     
  33. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Appologies if this sounds silly but Is this an example of a Coriolis-Divergence balancing act ? Or is there some occlusion involved ?
     
    #1083 Kletterer, May 20, 2017
    Last edited: May 20, 2017
  34. stridercdh

    stridercdh Active Member

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    Any updates on the June 1 - 6 event forecast?
     
  35. Kieran

    Kieran Addicted Member

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    Pretty sure I saw their stage show in Vegas once.
     
  36. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    example of a Coriolis-Divergence balancing act ?

    Definitely yes with a warm core system. Not sure with these
    planetary positive vorticity upper level cold core lows.
     
    #1086 jwx, May 20, 2017
    Last edited: May 20, 2017
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  37. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    [​IMG]
     
  38. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    I observe that this is Post of the Year, in my opinion.
    :clap:
     
    #1088 DidSurfNowSki, May 20, 2017
    Last edited: May 20, 2017
  39. stridercdh

    stridercdh Active Member

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    Not exactly the answer I was looking for, but I'll take it...:p
     
  40. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    Could be a snowy week (for May) for next week. Although no real large accumulations, GFS 00z run looks like some high-elevations snow every few days from Wednesday through the 2nd JUN. Some good snowmaking potential too.
     
    #1090 POW_hungry, May 20, 2017
    Last edited: May 20, 2017
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  41. stridercdh

    stridercdh Active Member

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    Seriously though, I have been reading this forum with interest and was asking a genuine question. As someone inexperienced in reading weather patterns, I just wanted to know from someone more knowledgeable if there was any new data for outlook of early June.
     
  42. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    I think the first week in June will likely see a dump.
     
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  43. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    GFS has it a tad earlier . More green please
     
  44. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    Given EC00Z run plays it down I am expecting GFS to down grade the 29th event. The node due around the 2-3rd of JUN still looks the goods IMO.
     
  45. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Even those at the top of their game have to have a laugh ;)
     
  46. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Been all over the shop today, but Melbourne's beautiful weather has stayed perfect. Hopefully some actual cold fronts are on their way, so we stop getting that Macedon rainshield crap.
     
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  47. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    There is weather about.
    It is looking promising.
    I'll spare us posting all the usual models for the 8 or 10 days time span and beyond....
    there's better here previously and not worth it till todays tropical feed has cleared from the table.
     
  48. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    [​IMG]
    31 May to 2 June looks tasty on EPS Control. Nice and cold airmass, a Baw Baw type of system with the SSW-S flow.
    [​IMG]
    5-10cm for the Alps on EPS Control.
     
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  49. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Yes I do realise that it was the daily SOI that has been negative recently. You would need to wait until it's consistently under -7 for a 90 day average. That certainly hasn't happened. we can't base ENSO predictions over daily measurements, more a 1-3 month period. And as you said the winds are nowhere near El Niño levels.

    My original post wasn't really to say El Niño would happen, just looking at the various factors. But I did kinda misrepresent the SOI, will try harder :thumbs:
     
  50. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Jet moving north ever so slowly. Cant gif whole sequence from -168 to + 192 but the vibe is there.
     

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