Mega Thread The Autumn, winter's not far away thread!

Discussion in 'Weather' started by jwx, Mar 1, 2017.

  1. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    I disagree with you guys i think the last half of the month will see the season
    kickoff.
    Below Canuck ens @23rd+
    [​IMG]
    Extreme trough.

    [​IMG]


    EPS
    [​IMG]




    [​IMG]



    EC 12z D
    [​IMG]
    Three prong attack.




    edit added
    The anom i point on the plot to is what i usually would usually see in mid june.
    [​IMG]
     
    #1001 jwx, May 16, 2017
    Last edited: May 16, 2017
  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    I hear you @jwx ! I certainly see it as a potential system and one that will likely deliver some snow, but my logic is overriding the models here.

    The origins of the 24th MAY system are from a cut-off system that peaks in SW WA on the 19th/20th, which then intensifies and migrates East. Rarely do we see resort snow from such a transcontinental system.

    All models suggest a >1004hPa system – coupled with lack of cold air this says to me no substantial snow falls in the resorts.

    Models still need to verify this system as it hits WA in order to deliver credible expectation/forecast IMO.

    Happy to be proven wrong but my gut presides over what the models currently, yet vaguely indicate given the +200-odd hours to play with.
     
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  3. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    I know your v/astute pow. Different opinions is just the nature of the game.
    As you know the atmosphere is dynamic You also know i give more weight
    to ens with anything past 110hrs.
    We will see i guess, for me it reeks a broad scale change.
     
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  4. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Most models (EC, GFS and EPS Control, not GEM) predicts a dusting on the main range. There is certainly time for that to change, but at the moment too much prefrontal and a dusting of snow briefly. We need a big very cold node with decent moisture to start the season. A season starter would be the system that creates the natural snow base for the season. This could happen from now until Early-Mid July. Given that this system isn't very strong, it could give 10-20cm if it is colder and there is moisture behind the 540 line. At the moment, the models show that not happening.
     
  5. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Definitely. The website would be incredibly boring otherwise. Combining the information and knowledge of yourself and all the others here creates a much better forecast than a single person could produce. The 'wisdom of the crowd' as they call it. And disagreements make all the others reading it more knowledgeable and drives you to learn more.

    And with the winter only gang coming in to join in the fun, we will have bigger and better discussions.
     
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  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    Clipper/ridged out on GFS 00z run for the 24-26 period.
     
  7. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    Well guys if any cam jockey can post images over the 24th-3 June
    to look back on it will be appreciated either way.:)

    Tip dont' base a event on one D run.
     
  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    This cam jockey hasn't finished yet.;)
    CMC downgraded on 00z 24-26MAY.

    Just simply highlighting the (somewhat consistent) slide away of the D, run to run...
     
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  9. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    00Z GFS nice example of shortwave moving though the longwave.

    [​IMG] .




    [​IMG]

    Like that nice arctic jet stream on the precip plot.


    [​IMG]
     
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  10. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Have not looked at models today but am leaning towards what jwx is saying.
     
  11. Hermon

    Hermon Dedicated Member

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    I'm remaining somewhat pessimistic about the next few weeks. Too much tropical air in the mix. One glimmer of hope is that the polar vortex is colder than normal at present, thus I reckon it'll be cold and dry for much of June and July, IMO.
     
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  12. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    12z ens canuck runs were not to shabby.well parted ridge.

    [​IMG]
     
  13. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    [​IMG]
    Yes the polar vortex is slightly colder than usual.
    EC Deterministic says it will stick around -80 for the next two weeks.
    This would mean cold and dry cold fronts, but a good MJO can add some moisture into the mix.
     
  14. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    850 gefs zonal wind plots last time i looked were showing the rw/mjo anom on the plots,
    in the last week over lower aus and tasman and still are on levi plot.
    [​IMG]


    00z GEFS ens lead in to the last week.

    [​IMG]

    phew to much work.


    16th EC00z D extreme trough....low pressure

    [​IMG]


    EC monthly MJO ens.

    [​IMG]
     
    #1014 jwx, May 16, 2017
    Last edited: May 16, 2017
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  15. Cuddles

    Cuddles Active Member

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    Its going to snow!!!
     
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  16. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    It's picking up some pre-frontal via some troughing over NW WA, but still looking good for the 2nd-5th. Still worth keeping an eye on it IMO.
    [​IMG]
     
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  18. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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  19. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    Season starter if it was to verify IMO. Not much point looking until EC Demterministix weighs in, but 3-6thJUN looks even bigger on paper too.

     
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  20. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    Way better than big fat jellyfish highs sitting in the bight all month.
     
  21. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Interesting ECL for NZ as well.
     
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  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    A combo of MJO & cooking SSTA's NE of NZ IMO.
     
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  23. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    EC EPS falling into line for the 01JUN system, although much more risky in it's set-up and top-heavy frontal band.
     
  24. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    Wake me up in a fortnight.
     
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  25. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Putting your hopes on a forecast 360h out, that's brave!
     
  26. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    It's the vibe. I feel it :nerd:LOL
     
  27. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    NOAA headquarters here we come. The Ski.com ensemble.:confused:
     
  28. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Na I would prefer ECMWF headquarters. Reading has the better vibe.
     
  29. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    Well aware of the risks of flagging a system 2 weeks out, but certainly not hoping or banking on it.
    I wouldn't flag it if I didn't feel like it was worth mentioning.

    This node looks healthy and coupled with the consistent LWT next week I think it has potential. It's remained on both ensembles and deterministic for days now. I see it as big potential for either AuS or NZ and at the moment models are pointing more towards Aus mainland than NZ.
    Like I say, no point revisiting this until EC deterministic weighs in @240hrs out from the 1st June IMO.
     
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  30. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    [​IMG]
    Unfortunately that June 1-5 node has weakened back on EPS Control. But plenty of time to progress...
     
  31. rocketboy

    rocketboy Dedicated Member
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    Na - stay sleeping. It's back to neg 1 on my index.

    The only good news is that this weekend's rain dog is staying mostly north. But hard to think it's a oncer for this MJJ period. Has a bad vibe for what could be a succession of inland wet dogs heading east.

    Hopecasting is that the deep cold brewing down south heads our way - runs into a wet dog - and low and behold makes for the best season start in 20 years ...
     
    #1031 rocketboy, May 18, 2017
    Last edited: May 18, 2017
  32. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    [​IMG]
    East coast moisture is being enhanced at by a ER wave moving west along the EQ.
    Maybe jelly could post a bom wheeler er plot.


    [​IMG]

    Easy to see the mjo on the top plot. Should be some nice forcing happening in the swio
    as well as the nio. So what does this mean, it means something to me.
     
    #1032 jwx, May 18, 2017
    Last edited: May 18, 2017
  33. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    288 hrs and beyond just got a little more juicey.

    [​IMG]
     
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  34. rocketboy

    rocketboy Dedicated Member
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    ... swing the dog
     
  35. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    [​IMG]
    Found the link here's the ER atm progressing to the west. Moist unstable cell.
    The moisture from the coral sea is being drawn over the E by the Upper Level low
    over the SE. The 'dog' is not a east moving system over the eastern main land.

    [​IMG]




    [QUOTE
    So what does this mean
    ... swing the dog][/QUOTE]

    What it means to me is i expect to see a up tick in C/Fronts and likely LPA's
    in the lead up weeks into and including the first week in June.

    Deformations in the lower belt in the swio from the forcing.
     
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  36. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    MJO evidently ablaze in the equatorial IO. Wow.
     
  37. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    I see you found them :thumbs:
    Exciting times, these next couple of weeks.
     
  38. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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  39. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    Foreboding clouds over Melb this morn

    Could be in for a good one
     
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  40. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU Dedicated Member
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    Very mild too, haven't felt the need for a heater much this week
     
  41. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Be prepared to be disappointed. I think we'll get a little rain here in Melbourne, but nothing to get excited about. It's all going to happen north of the range. IMO
     
  42. Edgecrusher

    Edgecrusher Pool Room
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    Some good falls in the Mallee and Wimmera overnight. Nice band sweeping down through the Riverina and across the border this morning.
     
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  43. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    So now we are looking at a system around the 27-30 of May
    EC and GFS are both looking for 5-10cm of snow during this period, but under two different scenarios.

    EC Deterministic shows a 534 low, turning into a cutoff low over this period. There's the potential for a snow level of 1000-1100m. It has decent precipitation in it.
    [​IMG]
    GFS shows a weak clipper passing over Victoria and South NSW, with most of the snow out of this system falling at the Victorian peaks.
    [​IMG]

    GEM also looks to have something similar to EC (potential cutoff low) brewing in that same timeframe.
    [​IMG]
    Overall, the period looks to have potential and is defnitely something to watch, even though it is 10 days away.
     
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  44. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    Macedon force field currently in full force.

    22mm & 25mm in Swan Hill & Charlton (NW VIC) overnight, respectively. Any idea of when those places received that kind of rainfall last? Gotta be months ago, surely.
     
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  45. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    Unusual weather. Raining on both the western and eastern seaboards of Australia. Normally it's one or the other but not both.
     
  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    Just ironic I think. Not that unusual. One is frontal and other is upper level trough, both with pineapple influence.
     
  47. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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  48. Jacko4650

    Jacko4650 Active Member

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    You guys talk a funny language here and despite reading your respective posts over many years I'm still none the wiser; well perhaps a little bit; perhaps more confused than ever. Hence I like looking at the pictures http://www.yr.no/place/Australia/New_South_Wales/Perisher_Village/long.html and I see snow flakes Sunday 28th May. Not sure what models they use but at this stage, I like em!
     
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  49. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    Exclusively EC model for yrno. So it's snowflakes run in alignment with @Jellybeans1000 post above. Subject to change IMO.
     
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  50. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Try this in your spare time , or if you have trouble getting to sleep.:)
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jetstream/index.html