Mega Thread The Autumn, winter's not far away thread!

Discussion in 'Weather' started by jwx, Mar 1, 2017.

  1. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture
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    Looks like it should be pissing down inc central NSW based on the sat pic but in Dubbo we only managed a decent 20 mins for about 5mm around midday. Perhaps more coming this evening.
     
  2. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

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    Cloudy day with a few gusts of wind but no rainfall in Tumbarumba so far today.
     
  3. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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  4. rocketboy

    rocketboy Dedicated Member
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    Sure looks like something is brewing out around the 15th on GFS - anyone seeing similar on the other forecasters?
     
  5. nfip

    nfip Addicted Member
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    Yes looks impressive , here's EC 240
     
  6. nfip

    nfip Addicted Member
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  7. nfip

    nfip Addicted Member
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    Canadian not so.
    Blocking Highs.
     
  8. rocketboy

    rocketboy Dedicated Member
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    Where would be without a blocking high or better yet a ridging high.
     
  9. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    The frontal surface low is looking some what better. The gradient winds on the western side are stiffening up.

    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]
     
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  10. nfip

    nfip Addicted Member
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    Knee deep rather than boot deep.
    2 meter parties ....
     
    #60 nfip, Mar 5, 2017
    Last edited: Mar 5, 2017
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  11. nfip

    nfip Addicted Member
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    Yes spot on the winds have really picked up through out the day .
     
  12. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    Its credit to you and pow you guys called it, warm waters and humid sub tropical easterlies flowing into to the low have kicked it on.
     
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  13. SMSkier

    SMSkier Active Member

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    Hey Rocket. All I can do is look out the window at home and gaze upon Crackenback Range and Perisher. I'll give you a heads up on the 15th. The charts confuse me.
     
  14. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture
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    after it looked like rain all day yesterday afternoon nothing happened. Today had the odd cloud about but was mostly sunny. UNTIL - id ecided to wash two cars. Then we get a pretty heavy sun shower. FFS!
     
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  15. benchives

    benchives Part of the Furniture
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    Squally all day in Sydney now getting the kids to sleep and quite consistent rain at times and Cool
    Love autumn
     
  16. rocketboy

    rocketboy Dedicated Member
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    Might be a few of us around that weekend. Missed the last minty day by a few hours. Last time we had a good March cold burst in 2012 it didn't all melt until December. So I'm calling it the five year cycle for 2017.
     
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  17. SMSkier

    SMSkier Active Member

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    Great. Let me know if you make it over here. I'll buy the first beer
     
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  18. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    Shore-line erosion looks a reasonable possibly over the coming days going off the ec solutions

    [​IMG] .


    [​IMG]
     
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  19. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    Yes, it's been there a while on EC EPS & GFS (I mentioned it last Monday HERE).
    Since then both models now say it's due to get ridged to oblivion and forced southwards.
     
  20. nfip

    nfip Addicted Member
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    By comparison NOAA/NCEP model from WZ .

     
  21. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    Latest runs on GFS & EC show swell well into next weekend.
    It's chopped and changed a bit in the last 48 hours but that ridge is cradling it nicely.
     
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  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    Looks like it's virtually copied GFS from yesterday, both EC & GFS have moved on from that North/South fetch scenario IMO.
     
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  23. nfip

    nfip Addicted Member
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    Not quite what we saw on the CMC and EC above.
    Repeat of this current system.

     
    #73 nfip, Mar 5, 2017
    Last edited: Mar 6, 2017
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  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    Geeezus, @nfip. That's as ECL as it gets.
    Although AXS is very much so on it's own there @ 216hrs out
     
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  25. nfip

    nfip Addicted Member
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    Check it at 240 hrs
     
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  26. nfip

    nfip Addicted Member
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  27. nfip

    nfip Addicted Member
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    35 South. Again.
    Watching this with some concern , again.
    We got lucky (on the coast) last few days with the precip.
     
  28. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    It's the only model (of 5) that show anything remotely like this. It's got <20% chance of turning out like that IMO.
     
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  29. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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  30. nfip

    nfip Addicted Member
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    Yeah AXS G not to be relied on & 216 hrs
    More so as its on its own , as you mention , per EC and GEM #56 & #57 ^^
     
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  31. Hermon

    Hermon Dedicated Member

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    Still looks all very ridgey and boring this morning for North Central Vic. A bit over all this endless heat tbh.

    We had some slow-moving storm cells on Saturday evening. Very hit and miss with some places copping 30mm+ and marble sized hail, and 0mm just a km or two away. Crazy.
     
  32. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    Decent looking cold shot anom. Cut/off tasman low ruining amuk.

    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]
     
    #82 jwx, Mar 7, 2017
    Last edited: Mar 7, 2017
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  33. Hermon

    Hermon Dedicated Member

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    All I see is a persistent ridge of High pressure over the Bight and Bass Strait with shallow trough rubbish over inland Australia. Isn't that EC map out-of-date already?
     
  34. nfip

    nfip Addicted Member
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    Correct me if I am wrong.
    I think it may be that jwx is showing an Ensemble rather than just the individual EC forecast model. ?
    and yes there is a 12Z / later model
    EC here for same time stamp.
    [​IMG]
     
    #84 nfip, Mar 7, 2017
    Last edited: Mar 7, 2017
  35. nfip

    nfip Addicted Member
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    Waaay out of my depth here.
    jwx image are an Ensemble control
    Time for some research later
    [​IMG]
     
  36. Hermon

    Hermon Dedicated Member

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    Certainly some cooler air from late Saturday into Sunday for Vic. Still on the warm side for March though. Warm Sea Surface Temps in Tasman Sea doing their thing IMO.

    It's rather strange to be in a strongly -ve AAO at present with no decent cold front around here. But some pretty decent cold fronts in the South Atlantic atm.
     
  37. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Yep it's the Control.
    Your image is the Ensemble mean.
    And then you have the op run, which is your normal EC forecast.
    I think...
     
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  38. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

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    March weather.....................boring as batshit as usual
     
  39. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve Dedicated Member
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    DSE have planned burns lined up within next ten days....so if this weather continues or becomes a little more subdued then conditions will be good for fuel reduction burning soon.
     
  40. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Nah- single digit minimums overnight bro . Bike, climb,paddle, swim
     
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  41. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    The ecmwf ensemble prediction system consists of one control forecast starting from the best guess initial conditions, and 50 members starting from slightly perturbed initial conditions. The run i post was the latest EPS available. The solution is for a current low in the Tasman @37.33S 20.50E.The data is propriety. If you are confident enough on ridge building in then take a tinny out for a spot of fishing over that period in the strait.
     
  42. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    I wouldn't take a tinny out in Bass Strait any given day;)
     
  43. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    I did it all the time ;)
     
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  44. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    #nfip
    Whats interesting on this run is the low appears to gets picked up by a developing easterly dip over the continent.
     
  45. nfip

    nfip Addicted Member
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    Test upload GIF of the next few days.
    Activity everywhere from the Bight , Vic and hint of an ECL.
     
  46. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU Dedicated Member
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    Lovely cool morning in Melbourne town today. Touch of autumn in the air.
     
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  47. nfip

    nfip Addicted Member
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  48. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    GIF doesn't work @nfip
     
  49. nfip

    nfip Addicted Member
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    yea I know tech challenged sorry.
    Saved it on pc ... and uploaded pic/file.
    Help !
     
  50. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Animated GIFs don't play here anymore.

    http://forums.ski.com.au/xf/threads/how-to-post-images-on-these-forums.76538/#post-3215588
     
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