Mega Thread Sizzling Summer Thread!

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Jellybeans1000, Dec 3, 2016.

  1.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    A little insignificant capped inversion, a little dry in the mid-levels. I'd love to see another sounding for this arvo.
     
  2.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator Season Pass Gold

    It's brewing up over Mt Macedon central areas now.
     
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  3.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator Season Pass Gold

  4.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Hot in NSW coastal next 3 days.

    [​IMG]
     
  5.  
    Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Melbourne storm watch updated, 3 cells over Bellerine and Mornington.
     
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  6.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    Lucky you guys (looking at a snowy balcony)
    Looking at afternoon storm forecast, I wouldn't want to be in South Gippsland.
    Property might cop a little of wind.

    Enjoy your wet ;)
     
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  7.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Central areas all blowing up.
     
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  8.  
    Edgecrusher

    Edgecrusher Pool Room Season Pass Gold

    Looks like I'm right in the sweet spot for that :(
     
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  9.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    good outflow of the line of cells (microburst?) moving through Seymour. I can see ~30km/h outflow on the Doppler Wind radar.
    Could be one to watch as it hits West Gippsland.
     
  10.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    It's not a tumor....
     
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  11.  
    Edgecrusher

    Edgecrusher Pool Room Season Pass Gold

    Just got a txt from my mum in Seymour. Is positively belting down up there
     
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  12.  
    Bluebird

    Bluebird Old And Crusty Season Pass Gold

    I'm starting to hear some good rumbles in South Yarra and the sky over the 'G looks very foreboding...
     
  13.  
    Edgecrusher

    Edgecrusher Pool Room Season Pass Gold

    Station Street, Seymour
    [​IMG]
     
  14.  
    Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Looking at radar looks like a solid run of it from the NW. Should be Williamstownisjh about now.
     
  15.  
    Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Cairns comes to South Melbourne
     
  16.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Looks like some Westerly/Nor-Westerly convergence around Melbourne CBD.
     
  17.  
    glug1

    glug1 Active Member

    Have had 31mm so far in my gauge today (Bendigo) 6mm in 5 minutes earlier which wet the ground nicely then, just before, I got another 25mm in 20 minutes. Flash flooding through the yard and water only a couple of inches from entering the house. Got a little busy there for a moment J
     
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  18.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Has been fairly persistent here in Canterbury last 45 minutes. Looks to be clearing off from the west.
     
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  19.  
    teckel

    teckel Old And Crusty Season Pass Gold

    Hasn't hit Narby yet. Wonder if I should close the shop early and get home before it starts
     
  20.  
    Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Kids had a ball in the downpour.. Probably should have put them in swimmers first. ;)
     
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  21.  
    GS

    GS Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    The storms missed us but now have very pleasant steady rain....great after a hot and muggy day.

    Should be a mountain in all that white
     
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  22.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator Season Pass Gold

    55mm at Ferny Creek, 54mm at the AP.
    52mm at Mt Macedon.
     
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  23.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    The ECMWF model was bang on the money with this one, I reckon.
     
  24.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator Season Pass Gold

    [​IMG]

    SE suburbs.
     
  25.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Templestowe

    [​IMG]
     
  26.  
    Seafm

    Seafm Dedicated Member

    Next to nothing happening up here ATM.
     
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  27.  
    GS

    GS Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    78mm at Viewbank....that's some serious rain
     
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  28.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Still a few cells building in the NW so it's not entirely over yet.
     
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  29.  
    bdenny4

    bdenny4 Dedicated Member

    Not as "big" as I thought it was going to be, especially for the Nth Central.
    Friends with the property in front of ours in Yea reported that there has just been a few showers only.
     
  30.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Locally, severe falls was always how it was going to pan out.
    A feast or famine scenario IMO.
     
    Last edited: Dec 29, 2016
  31.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Case in point... Shepparton picked up 2mm earlier today, whilst Tatura (20km down the road) picked up 14mm.
    Kilmore picked up 4mm, whilst Redesdale 50 km away picked up 25mm!
     
  32.  
    Tanuki

    Tanuki Dedicated Member Season Pass Gold

    Brutal here in St Kilda East earlier. Flooding in Elwood, Prahran and SY.
     
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  33.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator Season Pass Gold

    EC was suggesting a lot more late into the evening, which doesn't appear to be materializing. Still it was pretty good.
     
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  34.  
    jungfrau

    jungfrau Active Member

    Not sure of the science but may nocturnal cooling come to play??
     
  35.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    This is where a meso-scale (NAM-like) model would be helpful for Aus! AXS wasn't even close from memory.
    EC was only out maybe 1-3 hours in precip timeframes. Totals on avg seemed pretty good for a non regional resolution.
     
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  36.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator Season Pass Gold

    GFS was reasonably close within 48 hours of the event.
     
  37.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator Season Pass Gold

    There's a cell over Sunbury heading towards the city.

     
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  38.  
    MarkV

    MarkV Member Season Pass Gold

    View of Baw Baw this evening from my verandah.



     
  39.  
    mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Season Pass Silver

     
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  40.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Myriad of reasons but yeah looks diurnal cooling 'aint exactly helping. Moist NW (ex-tropical) feed is drying up and progressing east thanks to the inbound system West of Tas. Mt Gambier & Adelaide SkewT is indicative of this drier atmosphere.
     
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  41.  
    jungfrau

    jungfrau Active Member

    I was thinking/hoping about the exact opposite where the warm moist air down low and cooling above would enhance lift ..
    Thanks for the response, I love learning here :)
     
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  42.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    In general it would, that's your lifting mechanism. But if you have imbalances such as dry layer inversions (at elevation) in the atmosphere; that humid parcel of air is invariably going dry out as it rises. Warm, moist air rising quickly into moist cool atmosphere is often a better incubator for severe weather.

    I am no pro either, mate. But I do enjoy learning by reading/watching Skew-T charts. They tend to help me understand the atmosphere's depth in terms of moisture and temp and where they interact.
     
    Last edited: Dec 29, 2016
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  43.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Pouring rain in Canterbury.
     
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  44.  
    DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU Well-Known Member Season Pass Gold

    Landslide up at Hotham - all unnecessary travel stopped
     
  45.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    Was AXS-R poor in this case? Or where you meaning AXS-G? If you don't like AXS, there is always ADFD.
     
  46.  
    SurlyJoe5000

    SurlyJoe5000 Member

    Hi all. I thought I'd make my first contribution a report from Thredbo. It's basically tropical here today. Warm, torrential rain, steamy. It's all very much not like Thredbo
     
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  47.  
    nfip

    nfip Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Cupple images Of Brush Island this morning.
    Looks like some type of inversion causing the mirror image .
    I'm thinking its due to high moisture / humidity in the air ?
    Any theories or explanations folks ?

     
  48.  
    nfip

    nfip Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    and Bullseye....
     
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  49.  
    nfip

    nfip Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    With Lightning....
     
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  50.  
    nfip

    nfip Addicted Member Season Pass Gold