Mega Thread Sizzling Summer Thread!

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Jellybeans1000, Dec 3, 2016.

  1.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    GFS Parallel is now out on Tropical Tidbits, and has a higher resolution.
     
    :thumbs: Claude Cat likes this.
  2.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator Season Pass Gold

    It's still GFS though ;)
     
    :thumbs: POW_hungry likes this.
  3.  
    nfip

    nfip Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Saw this interesting explanation just now on a fb feed.
    Combo of rye grass pollen , wind and water.

     
  4.  
    The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Season Pass Gold

    Was a ripper.
    Watched that from Mt Eliza
     
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  5.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Doesn't cover Australia yet.
     
  6.  
    IAB

    IAB Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Revoltingly warm week coming up for southern states. Sydney has a forecast minimum on Tuesday of 25C. Yuk.
     
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  7.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Yeah, that heat trough won't be doing any favors for humidity either.
     
  8.  
    nfip

    nfip Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Quick peek at xmas day.
    The Low will be of interest up in the NW.
    Long way to go yet tho.
    [​IMG]
     
  9.  
    nfip

    nfip Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Tracks SW parallel along the WA coast and intensifying .:eek:
    [​IMG]
     
  10.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    Cyclone Tracy all over again
     
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  11.  
    nfip

    nfip Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    950 hPa ........
    My Dad was in it , we wheren't told about it but we saw it on the News......
    [​IMG]
     
  12.  
    IAB

    IAB Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Tomorrow night could be the warmest December night in Sydney for 44 years. Lovely.
     
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  13.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Unsurprisingly, gone off the 06Z & 12Z runs.
    But BOTH GFS and EC are now progging tropical disturbances on the NW shelf over the next 7-10 days but neither suggest too much risk for the mainlaind.
    BOM pointing to a Low Risk scenario by the week's end. BOM hinting at a shift by next week though.

     
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  14.  
    nfip

    nfip Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Yes I noticed that last night also.
    Nothing like what modelled earlier runs.
    Long way out a lot can happen.
    12z run for Wednesday.
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Dec 13, 2016
  15.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    Looking at charts today, there is still a chance for a White Christmas but relatively low
     
    :thumbs: DiscoStuAU likes this.
  16.  
    nfip

    nfip Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    The mercury has hit 41 in the back yard NSW South Coast .
    Going to be all sorts of records broken today , as forecast / anticipated.
     
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  17.  
    Yakski

    Yakski New Member

    Hey guys,
    First time poster here.
    Are any of you guys long term snow forecasters? Is snowatch or snowcast or mountainwatch long term snow forecasters? What about that guy who used to sell his seasonal forecasts to Aussie ski resorts?
    Thanks in advance
     
  18.  
    Yakski

    Yakski New Member

    John Moore is the other fellow, is he any good?
     
  19.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    ROFL
     
    :thumbs: Claude Cat likes this.
  20.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    I can't speak for the others, but I consider myself a long term forecaster. But that doesn't really imply much accuracy.
     
  21.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator Season Pass Gold

    I think you get as good or better advice here than those websites IMO
    Gerg is very good too.
     
  22.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    Greg is great. His yearly snowfall predictions are the best of the bunch and his analysis of climate trends and the like is incredible. Too bad he left here :(
     
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  23.  
    nfip

    nfip Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Welcome to the black hole !
    as per @Claude Cat above.
    Further to that a great place to expand your own knowledge if you're keen and want to spend the time.
    And the Commercial forecasts you mention above , delete any amphibians and you're on your way. IMO.
    Looky here for the latest knowledge bank.
    http://forums.ski.com.au/xf/threads/weather-links-thread.76664/
    :cheers:
     
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  24.  
    IAB

    IAB Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    The BOM have upped the ante again. Sydney reached 37.8C today and there's now a forecast minimum of 26C tonight.

    Hottest ever December night is 26.3C so there could be a record broken (the hottest ever is 27.6C set in February 2011 but I think we'll dip below that).

    Then tomorrow another 38C day is forecast before a strong southerly arrives and demolishes the temperature.

    :nerd:
     
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  25.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Who needs a record book when we have you! Cheers for the update. SYD station still sitting on 28.8C with a light Easterly puffing away. I think the light easterly may just save that record.
     
    :thumbs: IAB likes this.
  26.  
    IAB

    IAB Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Yeah I think we may dip below unless the wind swings round to the NW. Sydney Airport is currently at 29.8C and Penrith a toasty 32.2C!
     
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  27.  
    nfip

    nfip Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Copy , that little puff of E & NE sure saved us.
     
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  28.  
    rocketboy

    rocketboy Dedicated Member Season Pass Gold

    Local seaside temps on the NSW south coast at Kiama in the Illawarra and all down the Shoalhaven coast have smashed annual minimum overnight temp records by 7 degrees.

    It is currently 30C at BOM's Bombo Headland AWS (Kiama). The previous min record was 23C set in Oct 1981. This is way beyond anything seen before. The mean min for Dec is 16C.

    Most houses in these parts have no aircon installed. Hopefully this is all over later today - one more night of this and the oldies will be dying by the dozen.
     
    Last edited: Dec 14, 2016
  29.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Looks like Sydney had it's second hottest night ever overnight at 27.4C. Just 0.2C off the record. But I'll wait @IAB for verification.;)
     
    :thumbs: IAB likes this.
  30.  
    nfip

    nfip Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    We still have 30 in the yard and in the House.
    BOM sying 31 at Ulladulla.
    Yes all eyes will be looking South for the change today.
     
  31.  
    seekingpow

    seekingpow Dedicated Member

    Already 28c in Cronulla
     
  32.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    *still

    FIFY
     
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  33.  
    nfip

    nfip Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Last edited: Dec 14, 2016
  34.  
    nfip

    nfip Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

     
    :thumbs: Claude Cat likes this.
  35.  
    nfip

    nfip Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Incoming .
    Relief is in sight
     
  36.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Cool change moved in over Melbourne around midnight.
     
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  37.  
    rocketboy

    rocketboy Dedicated Member Season Pass Gold

    On further reflection - this is wrong. As the min temp in the current 24 hour period was 21.5C at 10.30pm last night. So the record stands. I'll try and find the detailed hourly data for the record in Oct 1981 and see if it followed a similar weird mid night heatwave. This will be probably the case for all south coast readings. The Sydney temp record is also 'technically" questionable as Sydney is nowadays so heavily influenced by UHI effects and the overall static temps overnight may suggest there was no dip in temps earlier in the evening as we saw elsewhere in so many places before the warm air hit again around 1am. All those aircons in Sydney would have kept the place cooking after sunset.
     
  38.  
    Chowder11

    Chowder11 Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Very welcomed also
     
  39.  
    Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Season Pass Gold

    I had a upper level come through my area about 4-5pm, dropped the temp from the mid 30s to the mid 20s, but then it slowly crept back up towards 30C again before the second one came through. Much nicer 15C this morning.
     
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  40.  
    rocketboy

    rocketboy Dedicated Member Season Pass Gold

    Cold front just passing Gabo now - heading up the coast - relief is on the way ...
     
    :thumbs: nfip likes this.
  41.  
    Chowder11

    Chowder11 Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Yeh it was still very warm when we went to bed, had the fan on most of the night.
     
  42.  
    davidg

    davidg Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    35c here in Penrith at 9:30am! Forecast minimum of 27c didn't eventuate, we ended up with a breif min of 23c after hovering around 24-25 for most of the night.

    Observatory Hill ended up with a min of 27c which is a record for December. Previous record was 26.3c way back in 1868!
     
  43.  
    jeffx@stormwise

    jeffx@stormwise Active Member

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  44.  
    nfip

    nfip Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Montague Island / Narooma and counting it down ....
     
    Last edited: Dec 14, 2016
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  45.  
    Zimboo

    Zimboo Addicted Member

    Was talking to a mate in Sydney this morning.
    He said he got suckered into taking his daughter and a friend to Wet N Wild in Sydney yesterday (which is out west and a few more degrees warmer).
    He said he can't walk today as the soles of his feet are red raw (burnt) from having to walk/run on the pavement yesterday from ride to ride. LOL
     
    Last edited: Dec 14, 2016
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  46.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    Like it. I don't think that paper says what a Hadley cell actually is. So for those who don't know... a Hadley cell is warm air rising at the equator, moving south and then dropping to the surface and moving north again. Correct me if I'm wrong jeff.
    [​IMG]
    It does affect the jet stream and trade winds. If anything, it suggests we are moving to warmer conditions. Pic is straight off Wikipedia.
     
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  47.  
    nfip

    nfip Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Had a look too .
    Not the paper , too much in there ...maybe tonight.
    Really interesting .
    Low pressures at the Eq due to rising warm air and the higher pressures caused at 30 as the air cools and sinks back down.
     
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  48.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    [​IMG]
    Monsoon trough over Indonesia. This is the one that is forecast to come over the Top End in the coming days.
     
  49.  
    davidg

    davidg Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Still a ways to go for us Sydney dwellers. I'm guessing around 6-7pm or so.
     
  50.  
    jeffx@stormwise

    jeffx@stormwise Active Member

    Its the hadley cell jelly that drags the monsoon trof you showed on that plot above down into the shem.
    Happens every year with the arrival of the monsoon. Do you notice also the wwb across the EQ +cold air moving over china. And the big SE flow in the south china sea.
     
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