Mega Thread Sizzling Summer Thread!

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Jellybeans1000, Dec 3, 2016.

  1. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Time for a Thread!

    Another bout of Thunderstorm Asthma due in Victoria tomorrow. All the sudden this has come...
     
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  2. benchives

    benchives Part of the Furniture
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    What exactly is thunderstorm asthma?
     
  3. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Something to do with unstable air and pollen.
     
  4. benchives

    benchives Part of the Furniture
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    Could it not be a media catch all designed to maximise traffic through painless thinking that actually doesn't mean anything at all?

    The people who died - how are they different from the other eight people who died from respiratory infections last year?
     
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  5. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    [​IMG] [​IMG]
    This is crazy. There is actually a consensus between EC and GFS for Tasmanian Snow on the 8th December to possibly 1300m. Go to the Northern Hemisphere already.
     
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  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    Looks more like the 9th, and chiefly TAS IMO.
    -26C @500mb is very impressive for December in Aus. That's midseason upper-level temps.
     
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  7. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    This is good a start as any.
    Cheers and thanks for all your sharing and input folks.
     
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  8. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Here's the aerological-diagram.
    [​IMG]
     
  9. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    And Moree to compare.
    [​IMG]
     
  10. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Yeah it does look more like the 9th and it probably won't snow on the mainland.
    Now a White Christmas is now a very slightly increased chance...
     
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  11. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    Beautiful structure to it.
     
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  12. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU Dedicated Member
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    Surprisingly it is a real terminology used not just in Australia but globally. Something to do with the winds associated with a thunderstorm and how quickly it kicks up the pollen, explodes it and then buggers off. Of course it sounds fantastic on the news as well.

    Sultry day in Melbourne town today, been building up heat consistently all day.
     
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  13. benchives

    benchives Part of the Furniture
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    Sultry Sydney today too ending in great afternoon beach sit
     
  14. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU Dedicated Member
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    Finally raining in Melbourne city now after threatening to all afternoon.

    23c and 68% humidity. Sticky.
     
  15. snowduck

    snowduck Dedicated Member
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    179 days to the Australian winter

    Hurry up
     
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  16. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Up at Bendigo today. Has been rain since about 4pm.
     
  17. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Cold front at 3am ish
     
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  18. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    Snow this Thursday?

    [​IMG]
     
  19. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Yeah haven't been looking out for it but looks possible, on AXS G, up around 16- 1800 m.
    Thursday night Friday morning.
     
  20. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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  21. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    Yep, Still good for snow on Thursday night/ Friday morning in Tasmania most likely...
     
  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    Yeah, Thursday PMs system looks very frontal, with cold, dry air trailing. Cold air swings in late for the mainland, early on Friday AM.
    TAS to see snow down to 1200m early Friday morning (2-3cm) IMO. Dusting on the mainland above 1700m IMO.
    Vigorous system for December, nonetheless. Sure looks windy.
     
    #22 POW_hungry, Dec 5, 2016
    Last edited: Dec 5, 2016
  23. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    Sydney radar lighting up now!
     
  24. SnowBound

    SnowBound Dedicated Member

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    Just had a couple of storms sweep through Frenchs Forest. Nothing major. Some nice flashes over towards Chatswood though!
     
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  25. Undies

    Undies Part of the Furniture
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    Must be a good storm.
     
  26. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Southerly just hit South Coast .
    26kt and 5 degs cooler.
     
  27. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU Dedicated Member
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    17c forecast for Melbourne Friday. Jumper weather.
     
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  28. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Refer posts #18 - #22 above.:thumbs:
     
  29. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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  30. Seafm

    Seafm Dedicated Member
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    Hot and dry in FNQ at the moment with no relief in sight. In my old hometown of Townsville the primary water storage is sitting at 15%. Plus there is a large scrub fire burning between Cairns and Mareeba at the moment. Thankfully fires up here are nowhere near as extreme as what happens down south.

    Hurry up wet season.
     
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  31. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    BOM calling for snow above 1900m Friday in KNP, I expect that to be around 1700m Friday 3-6AM, IMO.

    -24C @ 500 over TAS says to me snow below 1000m on Friday AM for parts of Tasmania.
    Sure is a deep air mass for December:
     
  32. jeffx@stormwise

    jeffx@stormwise Active Member

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    they finally woke up to the mjo and NW mt trof.
     
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  33. Bluebird

    Bluebird Old And Crusty
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    My parents are up in Cairns at the moment. They can't believe how dry it is. To quote Mum: 'It's just like Townsville at the end of September - brown!'

    Hopefully the monsoon kicks in soon (and has a break in mid-January when I'm planning to go up there!)
     
  34. Seafm

    Seafm Dedicated Member
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    It does look pretty sad at the moment, my sprinklers are doing their best to keep the yard green.
     
  35. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    ?
    mt trof , you lost me there jeff
    (mjo I was sweet but if you could explain please , yes I was tempted with a Pauline H :))
     
  36. jeffx@stormwise

    jeffx@stormwise Active Member

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    ITCZ monsoon trough has been in shem NW indo now for 4days.
     
  37. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    So the monsoon trough is NW of Australia + the MJO = heaps of rain and cyclone opportunity
     
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  38. Beerman

    Beerman Dedicated Member
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    I had last week in NT, about 600k NW of Alice, edge of Tanami. Thermometer out of the sun showing 49C on Thurs at 2.30pm.
    Midnight Thursday was 38C.
    Bring on Japow.
     
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  39. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    [​IMG]
    Looking at it, it should start snowing in Tassie at about 5-7pm at the peaks. The mainland will probably have snow at midnight. Tassie should get to 1100m with 1000m in the South possibly. Mainland should get down to 1600-1700m around Main Range, 1500m further south in Victoria.
    The event should be over by 6pm Friday, only expecting about 5cm on the mainland and similar in Tassie...

    Elsewhere on the Eastern Seaboard, a large part of it is in for a soaking, thanks to the MJO.
     
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  40. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    and the North Coast lights up again.
     
  41. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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  42. jeffx@stormwise

    jeffx@stormwise Active Member

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    [​IMG]

    EC looking good big high in the tasman,the current heat trough from the NW to the SE cleared out and the MT across all the TOPEND.
     
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  43. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    SEVERE WEATHER WARNING for DAMAGING WINDS
    For people in the Central, South West, North Central and parts of the East Gippsland, Northern Country, North East, West and South Gippsland and Wimmera Forecast Districts.

    Issued at 4:29 pm Wednesday, 7 December 2016.

    WEATHER SITUATION:
    Winds are expected to strengthen on Thursday ahead of and with the passage of a strong cold front. The cold front is expected to enter western Victoria early Thursday morning and reach eastern Victoria during the afternoon. Winds are expected to remain fresh to strong in the wake of the front on Thursday, but the strongest gusts will then be confined to the coast.

    DAMAGING WINDS, averaging 40 to 60 km/h with peak gusts of around 90 km/h are expected to develop across southern and mountain areas of Victoria from the west during Thursday, particularly over elevated areas where gusts may reach 110 km/h. Winds are expected to decrease a little from the west during the day, although gusts around 90 km/h will remain a risk near the coast.

    Locations which may be affected include Horsham, Warrnambool, Seymour, Maryborough, Ballarat, Geelong and Melbourne.

     
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  44. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    Nope, not looking pretty in the high country tomorrow.
    +60 knots for places like Baw Baw....
    [​IMG]

    Baw Baw & Buller could easily end up with 3-5cm though.
    [​IMG]
     
    #44 POW_hungry, Dec 7, 2016
    Last edited: Dec 7, 2016
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  45. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    All major models are signalling an even deeper, colder (yet drier) airmass over TAS next Wednesday PM. It's been drifting in and out of runs and will struggle to endure the 174hrs, but these back-to-back systems are clearly out of season.
     
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  46. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    On topic sizzling summer.
    Rain on the Rock.
     
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  47. jeffx@stormwise

    jeffx@stormwise Active Member

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    [​IMG]

    Rare to see almost identical twins ,with different fathers.
     
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  48. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Actually maybe not... Access is based on UKMO which is very similar to EC....
     
  49. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Current models are not talking dry, they are talking wet. Some parts of Tasmania are looking like 10, 15, even 20cm of snow :thumbs:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  50. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    Sorry, wasn't very clear here. Dry for Victoria & Mainland! Tas will largely be the only region affected by the winter-like influence here if it verifies. A very tight thermal, moisture gradient indeed.
     
    #50 POW_hungry, Dec 7, 2016
    Last edited: Dec 7, 2016
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