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Discussion in 'Weather' started by Claude Cat, Dec 3, 2012.
That's the one.
Still looking like a nasty (or awesome) period from later Friday to Sunday morning. Big potentials for big hail in VIC too.
In terms of today there was predictions of showers but IMO the wind is already too high for too much shear to be generated so if there are going to be showers my guess would be that they would be light and not as crazy as the next few days. That's not to say in the West they wont potentially get some solid cells forming, looks very active over there.
EC still showing around 50mm (Melbourne) for this event over Friday & Saturday.
GFS has Melbourne right in the firing line.
Storms have arrived in Melbourne.
Temp has dropped 10deg in the last hour or so.
Naturally just after I bought a fan. But I hazard a guess I will need it again before long!
Not many storms at the moment.
Or at least not much lighting.
Good thing I bought a rubber raft for the kids if that GFS comes off. 100mm is bigtime for the urban jungle
GFS tends to get a bit excited in these scenarios. Perhaps divide the figure by 2 and it's more realistic.
EC has significantly downgraded tomorrows event.
Is there still a high chance of a BIG storm??
That stormcast chart has downgraded the chance of big ones.
Tomorrow morning is a chance.
With a cooler day today, we just don't have the same energy levels.
That is sad.
Brewing up in the west of Victoria.
Not sure it will make it to Melbourne.
BOM has done a long range christmas forecast for Melbourne - indicating it's going to be warm and stormy.
Weatherzone not BOM!
This is what Bureau of Meteorology senior forecaster Rod Dickson said. (from your link.)
'the forecast was "too far ahead to be considered reliable".
"We issue seven-day forecasts because that is, really, the limit of reliability," said Mr Dickson.
"Some of the models can see a little bit beyond that ... but at those sort of timescales, things can change quite markedly. So we stick to seven days."'
I agree with the BOM. Give it a couple of days and we'll be in the EC window ...
Some nice storms this morning!
Edit: enough to put out a warning according to BOM!
snow777, you worry me! You like storms?
Yes, I like storms - just as long as they don't score a direct hit on the top of my head with a large amount of electricity (or cannon-ball sized hail)!!
EC suggesting a damp Christmas for the SE
Looks like Christmas Eve in Melbourne and Christmas day in NSW will be damp. Coolish too.
Looks warm to hot in Perth.
Some good rain and storms possible tomorrow in VIC.
Good. No fires
30c here in Jindy today. The lake looks primed for a dip this afternoon.
I'll be down next week loweee... along with cold air..
Weather in Sydney has been plain shit for the last few days. Overcast and cold.
not so cold in melbourne today
been on the pushy doing some shopping in sydney road, a tad warm
cloud mass seems to be moving over
NSW going to get smashed for the next few days.
Was still just over 40Â°C here in Adelaide at 6:30pm. Dropping away quite quickly now though, 11 degrees cooler within the hour, now sitting around 29Â°C. Needed the cool, plants were suffering, giving the tomatoes a soaking now.
Holy bat balls...Look at NSW explode
yep it's coming.
Nothing much here in Melbourne today, only the odd very light shower. At least it's cooler after a horrible night. Hottest night in December on record (27.4)
btw Santa just went across the radar.
A bit early isn't he?
I'd suggest Norad Santa tracking is more accurate.
will get Poppy onto Norad
Looks like a winter day here - all drizzly and cloudy - but the temp is about 15c! The soil is getting very dry so I'm hoping that we will get some proper rain soon.
(I'm near Narbethong, Vic at the moment)
This looks hot!
Yep, Thursday looks warm in the SE and Friday ddeidedly hot!
No significant rain for VIC in the next week at least.
Stinking hot (40+) for the next 5 days. Just had the warning so that I can organise fire crews.
? not quite according to WZ
we've just had 7 consecutive days > 37 Â°C topped off by a 42 Â°C day on NYE your are getting that now
Queenstown reached a high of just 14 degrees today. We've had pretty torrential rain since New Year's eve. Parts of Fiordland and Westland have had near record rainfalls totals of around 400mm in the last day or so. Around 120 hikers are stuck in huts on the Milford Track waiting for DOC Rangers to guide them out through waist deep water. A cold front is expected to sweep through the Southern Lakes tonight with heavy showers falling as snow to about 1000 metres. Hello summer!
Nothing like embellishing it a little bit though, eh? The scaremongering going on in VIC at the moment about a couple of hot days is off the richter, people need to calm down a little bit.
Embellishment? I was warned by DSE, not some local yokel.
Further, what goes on in Coldstream or Yarra Glen has very little relevance to what goes on here weatherwise - there's a dirty big mountain range in between. Oh BTW, that mountain range is called the Great Dividing Range.
Next 6 days for this area - 37, 40, 35, 38, 41, 41
Ok, 3 of them under 40, (2 of them under 100 deg F) but not by that much. Very similar to Perth's heatwave.
pool will get a good workout and be lovely tomorrow.
So it's not 5 days in a row, it's only 2 days. I'm not disputing that the next 6 days will be hot in VIC, but the way the media is going on about it being a prolonged scorching heatwave is just over the top IMO. Yes it will be hot, yes it will nudge 40 on a couple of days, but it's not a cause for mass-hysteria. This is summer in the SE of AUS, and it normally goes like this.
I haven't heard the media - no idea what they've been saying.
interesting, where is that forecast from? Anyway it aint a pissing comp. I'm sure it will be quite warm and unusual, bad fire conditions!
Been revised since I posted, especially that last day, but here - http://www.weatherzone.com.au/vic/north-central/seymour/forecast
There's no point in looking for a forecast for Narbethong. There is no official weather station anywhere near us (closest about 40km away in totally different topoggraphy and conditions, and the closest ones there are have a totally differeent climate to us. No one attempts to forecast for this area either - apparently the population is too small.
It sure ain't a pissing comp! I remember that week we had in early Feb 2009 where it was over 40 every day for a week gradually getting hotter every day and culminating in a 48. There is no way you'd wish for that or even wish it on your worst enemy.