Predictions September 9th - 14th

Discussion in 'Weather' started by GTB, Sep 3, 2016.

  1. kiter

    kiter Active Member

    Joined:
    Sep 21, 2002
    Messages:
    634
    Likes Received:
    137
    Yeah nah perisher gives some hope that r**nfall totals for this fri sat might not be too bad and that snow is possible sat . A forlorn hope but they got it right last week when many were moping around here getting ready for "season ending" r*** event. Jane gives sat a more positive appraisal for snow too
     
    Snowy Joey likes this.
  2. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Silver

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2003
    Messages:
    14,032
    Likes Received:
    3,765
    im going to be bullish too......because all we have is hope. pressure forecast for tomorrow night is good. we havent had a decent september system for a few years iirc
     
    Snowy Joey likes this.
  3. jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

    Joined:
    Aug 17, 2016
    Messages:
    261
    Likes Received:
    462
    [​IMG]



    [​IMG]

    540-543 mix filtering in on the stream lines, been showing this for days. 700mb EC looks
    on the money.
     
    #103 jeffx, Sep 8, 2016
    Last edited: Sep 8, 2016
  4. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
    Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    91,246
    Likes Received:
    27,968
    Vic BOM SWW updated





    The following Watches/Warnings are current:

    Minor Flood Warning for the Kiewa River

    Flood Watch For Greater Melbourne Catchments (Werribee, Maribyrnong, Yarra, Dandenong And Bunyip)

    Flood Watch for North East Victoria (Upper Murray, Mitta Mitta, Kiewa, Ovens and King Catchments)

    Flood Watch for the Campaspe, Loddon, Avoca and Wimmera Basins

    Flood Watch for the Glenelg and Hopkins Basins

    Flood Watch for the Goulburn and Broken Basins
     
  5. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2005
    Messages:
    64,227
    Likes Received:
    16,996
    Yeah it looks big.
     
  6. jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

    Joined:
    Aug 17, 2016
    Messages:
    261
    Likes Received:
    462
    Maybe a lot of localised hailstorms about when this moves in, helmet if your out and about.;)
     
  7. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    May 30, 2015
    Messages:
    392
    Likes Received:
    987
    Heading out to Creswick early afternoon today through Friday evening , if i can snap any shots and post commentary i shall do.
     
    Claude Cat, Vermillion and POW_hungry like this.
  8. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
    Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    91,246
    Likes Received:
    27,968
    outlook for Melbourne for tomorrow has backed off significantly.
    I think the west and north will see most of it.
     
  9. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
    Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    91,246
    Likes Received:
    27,968
  10. jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

    Joined:
    Aug 17, 2016
    Messages:
    261
    Likes Received:
    462
    Cant find any newer official Bom, so this has to do atm.


    Forecast issued at 5:40 am EST on Thursday 8 September 2016.

    Weather Situation
    A large high pressure system is over the Tasman Sea and will drift eastwards towards New Zealand on Thursday. A cold front will weaken just west of Victoria early Thursday but a stronger cold front and upper level trough will reach western Victoria Thursday evening before developing into a low pressure system as it crosses the remainder of the State during Friday. A weak high pressure ridge quickly moves over the State in the wake of the low on Saturday. Another cold front will approach western Victoria during Sunday.



    Forecast for the rest of Thursday
    Partly cloudy. Areas of fog near the New South Wales border early this morning. Medium (40%) chance of rain, most likely this evening. Winds north to northeasterly 25 to 35 km/h. Daytime maximum temperatures between 14 and 21.



    Friday 9 September
    Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of rain. Possible heavy falls. Snow falling above 1800 metres during the evening. Winds north to northeasterly 30 to 45 km/h tending east to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h in the evening then becoming light in the late evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 9 and 12 with daytime temperatures reaching between 9 and 15.



    Saturday 10 September
    Partly cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers in the east, medium (50%) chance elsewhere, easing during the morning. Snow falling above 1600 metres. Winds south to southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h tending west to southwesterly during the day then becoming light during the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 4 and 7 with daytime temperatures reaching between 9 and 16.
    ...................................................................................................................................................
     
    #110 jeffx, Sep 8, 2016
    Last edited: Sep 8, 2016
  11. jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

    Joined:
    Aug 17, 2016
    Messages:
    261
    Likes Received:
    462
    @POW_hungry hot off the press ink still drying :)hi/res regional.;)



    [​IMG]




    [​IMG]
     
  12. jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

    Joined:
    Aug 17, 2016
    Messages:
    261
    Likes Received:
    462
    If you was referring to the vorticity charts ie EC/GFS/CMC yes indeed each model is calibrated before release.
    EC model data i believe is 240k pa.:)
     
  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    10,036
    Likes Received:
    5,181
    Like clockwork!
     
  14. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Feb 11, 2005
    Messages:
    1,007
    Likes Received:
    1,171
    GFS solution looks a bit wacky to me next week.

    EC on the other hand.. cold and moist!

    PS great to see new EC charts on Weatherzone (just need some thicknesses in there ;) )

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  15. jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

    Joined:
    Aug 17, 2016
    Messages:
    261
    Likes Received:
    462
  16. Cuddles

    Cuddles Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2015
    Messages:
    324
    Likes Received:
    240
    That's interesting, what estimate for start of snow and how much rain?
     
  17. jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

    Joined:
    Aug 17, 2016
    Messages:
    261
    Likes Received:
    462
    #117 jeffx, Sep 8, 2016
    Last edited: Sep 8, 2016
    C:'s likes this.
  18. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Feb 11, 2005
    Messages:
    1,007
    Likes Received:
    1,171
  19. jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

    Joined:
    Aug 17, 2016
    Messages:
    261
    Likes Received:
    462
    That's just my opinion not the BOM or Jane, hence the quote to refer to the Bom. let it play out and look @the obs on Friday/Sat.:),how can anyone say how much?who knows @ what rate the c/low will deepen ↛=satellite watching.
    As i quoted before :headbang: i' have been relying on genesis of the ull low→ occluded cyclone,with the low at least down@700mb.

    I don't mind eating crow just pass the tabasco sauce :)

    Not selling anything here or even trying too,its just my 2cents.

    your opinion as why not?
     
    #119 jeffx, Sep 8, 2016
    Last edited: Sep 8, 2016
  20. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage
    Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1970
    Messages:
    27,041
    Likes Received:
    7,937
    will be waiting for the next couple of Melbourne balloons with interest :)
     
    Vermillion, POW_hungry and jeffx like this.
  21. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
    Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    91,246
    Likes Received:
    27,968
  22. wangster

    wangster Addicted Member

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2008
    Messages:
    5,870
    Likes Received:
    300
    BOM forecast for NSW Snowy Mtns reads like a season ender

    "Very high (90%) chance of rain, most likely from the late morning. The chance of a thunderstorm about the ranges. Heavy falls possible about the ranges in the west"

    Below 5% chance of snow at 1800m
     
  23. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage
    Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1970
    Messages:
    27,041
    Likes Received:
    7,937
    good chance of thundersnow... not a good weekend to be camped high on the MR
     
  24. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Feb 11, 2005
    Messages:
    1,007
    Likes Received:
    1,171
    Way too warm especially Friday morning! I can't see cold till early Saturday morning.
     
    Vermillion and jeffx like this.
  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    10,036
    Likes Received:
    5,181
    [​IMG]
    Go the movies, play scrabble with your dog, just tune out for 48 hours if you can.
     
  26. Little Austria

    Little Austria Just Registered

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2016
    Messages:
    7
    Likes Received:
    2
    I predict good snow from 1700m, perisher will be the winner, should see 20-40cm starting Saturday.
     
  27. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    10,036
    Likes Received:
    5,181
    EDIT: Well at least under 1600m where we'll start to see some accumulation above that on Saturday IMO.
     
  28. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2005
    Messages:
    64,227
    Likes Received:
    16,996
    Dis
     
  29. Cuddles

    Cuddles Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2015
    Messages:
    324
    Likes Received:
    240
    I agree, but the BOM have been such a conservative mob this year.
    Air will be cold above , cold enough at -20 to be interesting (500) I think rain on Friday but not above 50, and where on earth does this talk about season ender come form, it depends on the force of the rain. 50mm over hours then 20cm of snow, good result. Any less and its a plus. The Perisher temp is slated to hit 0 at Saturday 12pm. That's the snow from then till Wednesday morning with the second front hitting. Perisher should do well. 40, but more is possible. You guys have stated the possibility above, Just be enough at 40 to see the season out. Be there from 12 pm Saturday and I always bring the snow, 3 times this year, lol
     
    Snowy Joey likes this.
  30. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2005
    Messages:
    64,227
    Likes Received:
    16,996
    Western VIC is going to be absolutely hammered. Jesus. Anywhere elevated and not in a rain shadow is going to see serious totals.
     
  31. Cuddles

    Cuddles Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2015
    Messages:
    324
    Likes Received:
    240
    Yes how they cam up with 133cm is beyond me, maybe it was 93.. or 73.. rumour of BC & Guths and Smiggns shutting on Sunday, but if it snows.. maybe longer.
     
  32. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2015
    Messages:
    1,118
    Likes Received:
    1,050
    Rain , only rain , nothing else in this timeframe ( with the exception of wind of course). Sorry people but I just cannot find any reason to be more positive. How much rain ............. too much tbh.
     
  33. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2005
    Messages:
    64,227
    Likes Received:
    16,996
    Lots of saturated areas that are going to be even more saturated after this. I heard of lots of water storages releasing bulk quantities today in preparation for this event.
     
  34. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    8,660
    Likes Received:
    6,787
    Some scours perhaps ?
     
  35. jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

    Joined:
    Aug 17, 2016
    Messages:
    261
    Likes Received:
    462
    Get them if you can from the E edge of the front, the blue tinge is a cold airmass in lower tropopause

    [​IMG]

    Not the latest satpic but good enough 3 cold streams
     
    Edgecrusher, nfip and Kletterer like this.
  36. The Fallen

    The Fallen Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 7, 2015
    Messages:
    288
    Likes Received:
    428
    Adelaide still at 15c.Melb at 20c.

    Adelaide copped close to 30ml, all above 17c.

    Where is the Love? Where is the Cold?

    Another Western to Mid Main Range System IMO. Dramatic Cooling pushing early snot for the western slopes
    but not much past Charlets. Nothing but pain for Vic.
     
  37. The Fallen

    The Fallen Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 7, 2015
    Messages:
    288
    Likes Received:
    428
    Into a La Nina with above ave SST off NT and early Monsoon setup. Big Flood Season IMO. See Spring weather thread
     
    rocketboy likes this.
  38. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage
    Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1970
    Messages:
    27,041
    Likes Received:
    7,937
  39. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,452
    Likes Received:
    994
    It looks like lots of precipitation in September, with 50/50 rain snow mix. Need a forecast thread.
     
    Kappy likes this.
  40. tele-whippet

    tele-whippet beard stroker
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2006
    Messages:
    10,552
    Likes Received:
    11,047
    BOM going for snow above 1100M NSW CTs Tuesday in this evening's forecast
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  41. rocketboy

    rocketboy Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2010
    Messages:
    1,607
    Likes Received:
    1,315
    BOM just bombed in this afternoon's update.
     
  42. Mils

    Mils Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Jun 3, 2011
    Messages:
    1,050
    Likes Received:
    11
    Any chance of some snow today? It looks like rain again....

    It looks so very bare....
     
  43. PowWow

    PowWow Active Member

    Joined:
    Aug 26, 2010
    Messages:
    138
    Likes Received:
    40
    Temps dropping and almost 0 up high at Perisher. As per other predictions above expect any precip to fall as snow after lunch IMO.
     
  44. Cuddles

    Cuddles Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2015
    Messages:
    324
    Likes Received:
    240
    Snowing at top of mt p, and temps heading below zero , it seems a low is spinning of coast here, this could be a surprise
     
  45. cookieman

    cookieman Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Silver

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2013
    Messages:
    1,383
    Likes Received:
    954
    I predict very much precipitation over the alps over the next 7 days with snow beating the rain this time.
    If we are lucky we could see over 30cm of snow...IMO
    [​IMG]
     
    rocketboy and Seafm like this.
  46. jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

    Joined:
    Aug 17, 2016
    Messages:
    261
    Likes Received:
    462
    Not seeing any model support now just H hpa.

    [​IMG]






    [​IMG]
     
  47. The Fallen

    The Fallen Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 7, 2015
    Messages:
    288
    Likes Received:
    428
    September Thread/ Spring started reluctantly. But its lookin wet and nazty
     
  48. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,452
    Likes Received:
    994
    It would be true of the whole winter. It seems to come back and never die. Been some great days out the main range but.
     
  49. jungfrau

    jungfrau Active Member

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2013
    Messages:
    479
    Likes Received:
    240
    Sat pic looks good IMO.. Are we expecting much still?