Predictions September 15 - 18th

Discussion in 'Weather' started by 7wombathead, Sep 9, 2016.

  1. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Been looking at this for a few days.

    Almost enters the four day rule Too.

    I am frothing, and the new Tent should be here by then too.

    It just has that lovely shape about it. I couldn't resist.

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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  2. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Still keen.

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  3. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Finishing off with a bang. LWT is back.


    [​IMG]
     
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  4. jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

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    EC say's [​IMG] talk to the hand.



    [​IMG]



    [​IMG]



    [​IMG]

    :deadhorse:
     
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  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Don't see much for this date range. Big divergence in the models. Following system (20-21Sep) looking better IMO.
     
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  6. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    I am backing GFS on this one, I think the 14th needs to be included too.
     
  7. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    [​IMG]

    Date is Saturday Night 10 pm. 17th September.
     
    #7 7wombathead, Sep 11, 2016
    Last edited: Sep 11, 2016
  8. jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

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    [​IMG]

    52 ens members=wet NE tropical 850hpa warm mix.
     
  9. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Backed up by a fair amount of cold air behind it. It beats an ECL in terms of probability of delivering good snow and clearing conditions.

     
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  10. jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

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    indeed

    [​IMG]
     
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  11. jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

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    [​IMG]
    Horse's for course's, i guess.i find tracking a upper level low for development more interesting than garden variety
    fronts. :)
     
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  12. jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

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    [​IMG]

    not looking any better @that date, dont like it wombat myself but if you prove me wrong i will be happy.
     
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  13. jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

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    That will do me zzzzzzzzzzz time until the cyclone season starts.:)

    [​IMG]





    [​IMG]
     
    #13 jeffx, Sep 11, 2016
    Last edited: Sep 11, 2016
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  14. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Back on deck.

    Yep EC not really interested but still hanging in there on GFS, but loosing the shape, but it does have that wandering cool pool influence.

    [​IMG]

    Saturday Morning 4am

    [​IMG]

    Sunday Night

    But maybe its gearing up for the next front behind it next Wednesday.

    [​IMG]
     
  15. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Should we update the date range to the 14 to the 21 CC.
     
  16. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Chunky system on the 14th to 15th .

    [​IMG]
     
  17. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    EC and GFS get nodal later in the week.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  18. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    You
    What about all the deep southern ocean vortexes down at 55 south through the summer.
     
  19. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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  20. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    that doesn't inspire me in the slightest at 240hrs out.
     
  21. Kimski

    Kimski Well-Known Member

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    Is chunky good?
     
  22. summit_32

    summit_32 Active Member

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    even if they get 20cms out of this in NSW - its just too late IMHO. Too much damage done in the past week or so with rain and high temps
     
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  23. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    i dunno.

    but it is something.

    o_O
     
  24. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Looking good on latest GFS.

    [​IMG]
    Time to Hike.
     
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  25. Vandans

    Vandans Active Member

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    BOM charts IDG00074.gif
     
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  26. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    Meanwhile, on the nicely loaded leeward faces in the BC, those with time season ends a good 6 weeks later give or take.
    Late September system's be good.
     
  27. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    20cm top ups on a rock solid and stable base. what's not to like!
     
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  28. seekingpow

    seekingpow Dedicated Member

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    whats the weekend for canberra looking like - BOM still doesnt have much precip but some of those models shjow fair bit of rain - nervous as I have a mountainbiking trip ROFL
     
  29. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    The question is, when is it going to clear????
     
  30. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    The 15th looking bomber. Maybe a cutoff system that will deliver.

    [​IMG]
     
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  31. Funky

    Funky Dedicated Member

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    Heard that before... But I'd be happy seeing as I get there Thursday night. May even have to fit chains! note I've never had to fit chains heading to the Bo before.
     
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  32. GnuDad

    GnuDad Active Member

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    Even if it doesn't rain. Trails will be very muddy.
     
  33. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    528 Action on saturday

    [​IMG]
     
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  34. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    Our collective inability to ditch young families?
     
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  35. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    Definitely would want to be there during the sweet spot in the middle.
    Either side be wet then after rapid warming gloop -until the next system anyway.
     
  36. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Yeah, Its hard to see more than 24 hrs of clearing conditions in the next 360 hrs.
     
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  37. CarveMan

    CarveMan aussieskier.com
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    :tany:
     
  38. Funky

    Funky Dedicated Member

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    To be honest... I'm just the other side... just... better than the alternative though!
     
  39. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    I'd be looking more at the weekend after. Timing better.....but 10 days out
     
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  40. Funky

    Funky Dedicated Member

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    And there will be another 1m of fresh snow for you then CM...
     
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  41. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Looking solid on access R.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  42. IAB

    IAB Addicted Member
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    Well called 7wombathead :clap:
     
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  43. Tanuki

    Tanuki Dedicated Member
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    Was thinking of camping on Stirling Saturday and Sunday night, now looks like steady rain below 1900m all Sunday, any predictions?
     
  44. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage
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    I reckon GFS got the stall. The others had this pushing through 12 hours + earlier.
     
  45. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    I think it looks better late next week. Its still a bit unsettled and snow/rain/cloud mix. Need some sun to corn it up.
     
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  46. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope Dedicated Member
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    Can anyone comment on the likelihood of snow vs rain tomorrow in the NSW resorts? BOM calling snow above 1800m, some others 1600. Of course this is the day I am heading up ;)
     
  47. telecrag

    telecrag Part of the Furniture
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    Looking at the radar, its lineball for the start, moisture coming from the north again, cold air pushing up. I was going to go tonight, but am going tomorrow, ski afternoon, hope it turns, and get Monday morning. Of course this may have just guaranteed the cold air winning.

    I cant remember a season with such flip flopping predictions, 4 day rule not working even. Models not coping. Armageddon?
     
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