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Predictions: May 23rd - 27th (SiSFM Market - Emma)

Discussion in 'Weather' started by FourSquare04, May 14, 2012.

  1.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator

    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    I can't see the low level love either. IMO freeze levels will be 1400m+ for most of this event. And most of that in NSW. Over Victoria it seems to be 1600m.
  2.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator

    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    Vic BOM has just put out flood watches.

    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 25, 2013
  3.  
    woggybot

    woggybot Dedicated Member

    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    It's amazing how much difference a few hours makes.

    Re the sat loop this morning, I'm amazed at the appearance of the NW tropical feed and the block it seems to have made on the progress of the cold air to the Alps.

    It appears that the formation of a L just west of the Alps is just starting; hopefully this will aid cold air penetration from southern front...because it is there!

    Fingers crossed, I hope the L forms and deepens....
  4.  
    Alexski

    Alexski Well-Known Member

    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  5.  
    Donza

    Donza Old And Crusty Season Pass Holder

    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    umm where?
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  6.  
    skiflat

    skiflat New Member

    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    Agree - There are no snow predictions besides general chat for NSW BOM. They predict this http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/forecasts/thredbo.shtml

    Mountain watch is computer generated

    Weatherzone - Where ?
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  7.  
    Donza

    Donza Old And Crusty Season Pass Holder

    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    Friday 25 May

    Summary
    Min 1
    Max 4
    Rain then a few snow showers.

    Alpine Area area

    Cloudy. Areas of rain, tending to showers during the morning and tending to snow from about the middle of the day. The chance of thunderstorms from the late morning until late afternoon. Winds north to northeasterly 20 to 30 km/h tending northwesterly 20 to 35 km/h around dawn.
    Saturday 26 May

    Summary
    Min -2
    Max 2
    Rain easing. Wind easing.

    Alpine Area area

    Cloudy. Snow, easing during the afternoon. Winds west to northwesterly up to 45 km/h.
  8.  
    ice_man

    ice_man Dedicated Member

    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    I'm expecting more than 50mm in some areas, oddly enough. While I'm not confident about snow, I'm definitely confident in some big rain totals, at least one location above 100mm (and looking at current charts I'm willing to bet on that!). Where tbe heaviest rain falls, though, is anyone's guess. Could be anywhere between the Otways and Sale IMO.
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 25, 2013
  9.  
    skiflat

    skiflat New Member

    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th


    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  10.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator

    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    3pm GFS accumulations

    [​IMG]
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  11.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator

    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    3pm GFS suggest's freezing levels around 2000m midnight tonight, lowering to 1600m early am tomorrow, and by midday down to 1400m.
    Freeze level at least 1600m until Saturday afternoon.

    IMO

    Looks good.

    [​IMG]
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  12.  
    woggybot

    woggybot Dedicated Member

    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    Agree with IceMan ^^^

    Tropical moisture feed trumps stalled southerly front every time [​IMG]
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  13.  
    Karicta

    Karicta Well-Known Member

    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    Temps at Buller colder than predicted ATM IMO

    Snow showing on summit cam now

    If this trend continues we may see some big accumulations IMO
  14.  
    badabing

    badabing New Member

    Re: Predictions: May 22nd - 25th

    There will hopefully be about 10-20cm of natural snow in the NSW resorts by Sunday and coupled with the snowmakers probably 30+ on some runs. Spencers Creek: 20cm
    IMO
  15.  
    Katanga

    Katanga New Member

    Re: Predictions: May 22nd - 25th

    Infortunately, it looks like all of the cold air has been stalled over SA and the Alps are getting smashed by the tropical moisture.

    IMO, we will see some snow early in the weekend but the main band of moisture and the cold pool will arrive at different times meaning some low snow totals.
  16.  
    Donza

    Donza Old And Crusty Season Pass Holder

    Re: Predictions: May 22nd - 25th

    what is happening now is exactly as EC progged
  17.  
    facethefront

    facethefront Well-Known Member

    Re: Predictions: May 22nd - 25th

    Are people thinking fizzer now?
  18.  
    Donza

    Donza Old And Crusty Season Pass Holder

    Re: Predictions: May 22nd - 25th

    This system is panning out exactly as progged
  19.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator

    Re: Predictions: May 22nd - 25th

    Stay on topic. Predictions only.
  20.  
    Katanga

    Katanga New Member

    Re: Predictions: May 22nd - 25th

    The optimist in me can see a lot to keep me interested and excited about this system but I have gone conservative with my predictions simply because of the time of year and the multiple variables that need to come into line for this one to deliver in big snow totals.

    I definitely like the actual MSLP showing that the trailing high has not ridged to the SE as quickly as forecast yesterday which meant the cold air injection has lasted longer allowing the cold pool to grow and remian a bit further south than I thought it would.

    The WZ GFS for Friday also shows the cold pool hitting the Alps in conjunction with the Western edge of the tropical feed

    See here http://ski.com.au/weather/cola/mslp/24.html

    If this happens, we could well see some big totals tomorrow.

    Timing is very important with this one so it is definitely worth watching tomorrow.
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  21.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator

    Re: Predictions: May 22nd - 25th

    9pm GFS has amplified totals. Melbourne looks like it's going to cop it.

    [​IMG]
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  22.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator

    Re: Predictions: May 22nd - 25th

    Weatherchaser experimental GFS forecast has this for Hotham (based on 3pm GFS run)

    Thu 24/05/2012 30mm rain, 1cm Snow Min -3, Max 4 1450m Strong to Light to Strong, NW/N/S/NW
    Fri 25/05/2012 12cm Snow Min -4, Max 0 1300m Strong to Fresh to Storm, NW/W/SW
    Sat 26/05/2012 5cm Snow Min -2, Max 1 1600m Strong to Fresh, SW/S
    Sun 27/05/2012 1cm Snow Min 0, Max 1 1800m Fresh to Moderate, S
  23.  
    kiter

    kiter Well-Known Member

    Re: Predictions: May 22nd - 25th

    Fizzzzzerrrrrr ,but I reckon Selwyn will be coppin it out of this one
  24.  
    Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture

    Re: Predictions: May 22nd - 25th

    Its raining from the tropical feed. This was always forecast to happen. The fun bit is the low centred over western vic. It will end up mixing some of that tropical moisture with the cold pool. I think we will see 30cm at 1800m in NSW. AXS and GFS both showing that the low results in >30mm along the mountains and anything that falls after the low moves across will be snow above 1500m IMO, even though thickness is above 5400m. Totals will depend where the low wanders and how long it hangs around.
  25.  
    Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator

    Re: Predictions: May 22nd - 25th

    far from a fizzer, as SB says the fun bit ain't started yet.
  26.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator

    Re: Predictions: May 22nd - 25th

    yr.no showing another 20cm for Hotham today/tomorrow and similar for Thredbo.
    If Baw Baw temps stay down low, they could do really well this afternoon. At this stage the models are saying it will be too warm, but they have underestimated how cool this system is so far.
  27.  
    PG

    PG Old And Crusty

    Re: Predictions: May 22nd - 25th

    Unsure if you are trolling or not, but IMO the system has developed a lot faster than forecast, and it will all be over by Sunday.

    Whereas the general consensus (for Victoria at least) seemed to be rain for Thursday/Friday and snow on the weekend...the snow is now with us and it looks like it will be fairly dry by Sunday.
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  28.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator

    Re: Predictions: May 22nd - 25th

    I'd agree with that. No models were prediction snow, for example at Buller yesterday afternoon. A couple of the models suggested snow from midday today, but it has certainly stayed cooler than expected.
  29.  
    Donza

    Donza Old And Crusty Season Pass Holder

    Re: Predictions: May 22nd - 25th

    You agreeing with me CC or PG?

    I suggested marginal snow conditions -using AXS-R around 48-72 hours ago for thursday..
    but the progress of the cool pool and moisture has been pretty consistent with EC for days.
  30.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator

    Re: Predictions: May 22nd - 25th

    PG - this system has developed faster than expected.
  31.  
    Donza

    Donza Old And Crusty Season Pass Holder

    Re: Predictions: May 22nd - 25th

    Really?
    Maybe faster than we predicted a week ago...not faster than 3 days ago IMO

    anyways- my reply to someone who said fizzer etc...
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  32.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator

    Re: Predictions: May 22nd - 25th

    Understood.
    even yr.no (EC derivative) was not predicting snow until midday today (until yesterday's run)
  33.  
    D_Dog

    D_Dog Well-Known Member

    Re: Predictions: May 22nd - 25th

    will that blob over Melbourne reach the mountains? and if it does will the temps be good for it to fall as snow?
  34.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator

    Re: Predictions: May 22nd - 25th

    IMO I can't see it warming up today.
  35.  
    Snorkler

    Snorkler Part of the Furniture

    Re: Predictions: May 22nd - 25th

    That's the big question, what will The Blob do?
  36.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator

    Re: Predictions: May 22nd - 25th

    Some of the weather nerds are suggesting falls of up to 200mm in the East out of this one (100mm in eastern 'burbs Melbourne). Hope you have good drainage Verm.
  37.  
    Prokasaurus

    Prokasaurus Well-Known Member

    Re: Predictions: May 22nd - 25th

    I predict that snow in may........could very well stay!!

    Heres hoping for some mega falls today into tomorrow!
  38.  
    wrxbouy

    wrxbouy Well-Known Member

    Re: Predictions: May 22nd - 25th

    I predict that it will snow all day today. IMO
  39.  
    stridercdh

    stridercdh Well-Known Member

    Re: Predictions: May 22nd - 25th

    Looks like Baw Baw did well after all, freeze level to 1200m. Still a little while to go, let's hope it keeps up :)
  40.  
    stridercdh

    stridercdh Well-Known Member

    Re: Predictions: May 22nd - 25th

    Any guesstimations on how much has fallen on the little mountain? Charlie? I wonder how much we can expect by tomorrow?
  41.  
    Nidecker

    Nidecker Dedicated Member

    Re: Predictions: May 22nd - 25th

    Is the timing of this system significant? ie: it is more likely to be over the mountains tonight rather than during today? Is it better at night ie: colder?
  42.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator

    Re: Predictions: May 22nd - 25th

    IMO no. It's been plenty cold enough during the day.
    In terms of Baw Baw, if the temps stay low enough (indications are that the freeze level will rise to 1400m overnight), we could be looking at 20 to 30cm (IMO).
    yr.no is saying 10cm
  43.  
    MickM

    MickM Dedicated Member

    Re: Predictions: May 22nd - 25th

    I am no expert but the models seem a little confused this morning. One thing though, there is potential for a sustained cold period IMO
  44.  
    FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

    Re: Predictions: May 22nd - 25th

    Wrong thread there Mick, this one is long gone....