Predictions Predictions - June 21-24th System

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Claude Cat, Jun 13, 2016.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    10,036
    Likes Received:
    5,181
    Upgrade on cold air and downgrade on warm/moist trans-continental prefrontal. That 140kts West to East jetstream may have helped there.
     
    7wombathead likes this.
  2. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Silver

    Joined:
    Jul 31, 2015
    Messages:
    533
    Likes Received:
    626
    Baw Baw looking good on this IMO.
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  3. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    10,036
    Likes Received:
    5,181
    Just needs the freeze level to come in with it as that's for 7-10pm tonight and temps are marginal for BB at the moment. I think it will do very well overall this system, being Southerly and all.
     
    glengary likes this.
  4. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
    Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    91,246
    Likes Received:
    27,968
    IMO not sure that Baw Baw will do much good until tomorrow morning, but it should be on after that right through Saturday morning.
     
  5. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Silver

    Joined:
    Jul 31, 2015
    Messages:
    533
    Likes Received:
    626
    In the negatives at the moment and dropping so hopefully it will be all snow when it hits.
     
  6. SnowBound

    SnowBound Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2007
    Messages:
    1,070
    Likes Received:
    802
    How's it currently looking for CT's tomorrow?
     
  7. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 7, 2004
    Messages:
    16,963
    Likes Received:
    6,994
    Very good. The AXS R 48 hr chart is showing 30-40mm for elevated areas around Orange.
     
    SnowBound and Claude Cat like this.
  8. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
    Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    91,246
    Likes Received:
    27,968
    Yeh, but will be in rain shadow until it turns SW, so even though it's cold enough, moisture levels will rather low. IMO
     
    skiingtk and mick chopps like this.
  9. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Silver

    Joined:
    Jul 31, 2015
    Messages:
    533
    Likes Received:
    626
    Still looks pretty good to me. Time will tell.
     
    skiingtk likes this.
  10. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2014
    Messages:
    4,109
    Likes Received:
    5,125
    Sheep Graziers Alert - Check

    Warning to Sheep Graziers
    for the Northern Tablelands, Illawarra, South Coast, Central Tablelands, Southern Tablelands, South West Slopes and Snowy Mountains forecast districts

    Issued at 3:27 pm EST on Thursday 23 June 2016.

    Sheep graziers are warned that cold temperatures, heavy rain and showers and strong westerly winds are expected during Thursday and Friday. Areas likely to be affected include the Southern Tablelands, South West Slopes and Snowy Mountains forecast districts and parts of the Northern Tablelands, Illawarra, South Coast and Central Tablelands forecast districts. There is a risk of losses of lambs and sheep exposed to these conditions.
     
    Ozgirl and Kelpieboy like this.
  11. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
    Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    91,246
    Likes Received:
    27,968
    Melbourne forecast for tomorrow

    Min 6
    Max 10
    Showers.
    Possible rainfall: 1 to 5 mm
    Chance of any rain: 80% [​IMG]
    Melbourne area

    Cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Snow falling about the nearby hills above 500 metres. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning and afternoon. Possible hail from the late morning. Winds northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h turning westerly 25 to 40 km/h in the morning then decreasing to 15 to 20 km/h in the evening.
     
    skiingtk and Karicta like this.
  12. SnowBound

    SnowBound Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2007
    Messages:
    1,070
    Likes Received:
    802
    Central Tablelands
     
    skiingtk likes this.
  13. SnowBound

    SnowBound Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2007
    Messages:
    1,070
    Likes Received:
    802
    So, based on what we've got so far vs what's to come, anyone wanna make a call for total amounts by saturday arvo/night? I'm going for a total of 70cm for majors (tuesday to saturday)
     
    skiingtk likes this.
  14. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    10,036
    Likes Received:
    5,181
  15. skiingtk

    skiingtk Active Member

    Joined:
    Aug 5, 2011
    Messages:
    15
    Likes Received:
    4
    Mt Dandenong might get some snow?????
     
  16. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
    Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    91,246
    Likes Received:
    27,968
    Almost a certainty. IMO
     
    skiingtk, Vermillion and Karicta like this.
  17. absentskier

    absentskier Old And Crusty
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2010
    Messages:
    20,251
    Likes Received:
    9,256
    Possible.
     
  18. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
    Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    91,246
    Likes Received:
    27,968
    Come on, put your nuts on the line.
     
  19. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
    Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    91,246
    Likes Received:
    27,968
    skiingtk, DidSurfNowSki, AJS and 2 others like this.
  20. Rush

    Rush Pool Room
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2000
    Messages:
    41,965
    Likes Received:
    9,638
    Guy at work reckons this system is good for 50 cm in total.
     
  21. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Silver

    Joined:
    Jul 31, 2015
    Messages:
    533
    Likes Received:
    626
    That is showing sleet on the Warbies, just west of Wang. I remember snow on them in 1966
     
    snowblowa likes this.
  22. skimax

    skimax Old And Crusty
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 25, 2000
    Messages:
    30,035
    Likes Received:
    2,969
    Is his name Guy , or a generic guy ?
    Im liking what he says
     
    24 likes this.
  23. derwent

    derwent Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 13, 2014
    Messages:
    651
    Likes Received:
    383
    Will be snow of some sort there in the arvo, whether it settles I'm not too sure. Work is at 470m asl.
     
    Claude Cat likes this.
  24. Jeffb

    Jeffb Active Member

    Joined:
    Jun 23, 2016
    Messages:
    99
    Likes Received:
    234
  25. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2015
    Messages:
    1,118
    Likes Received:
    1,050
    Have been moving my stock to the better protected areas since monday in anticipation of a warning. Good to see someone post it up anyway , good man DSNS.:cheers:
     
    Ozgirl likes this.
  26. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2001
    Messages:
    4,560
    Likes Received:
    1,661
    Has there been a sheep grazier's warning issued yet @Kelpieboy ?
     
  27. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2015
    Messages:
    1,118
    Likes Received:
    1,050
    Highest point of my property is 860m approx so , yeah , might have my own snowfield for a day :woohoo:. I moved an old rope tow up there just in case , ..........well you never know;)
     
    whether, zac150, PowWow and 5 others like this.
  28. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2015
    Messages:
    1,118
    Likes Received:
    1,050
    Today at 3.27
     
  29. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Silver

    Joined:
    Jul 31, 2015
    Messages:
    533
    Likes Received:
    626
    BOM saying up to 10mm for Hotham tomorrow, that equates to about 5cm of snow. 20cm will be a big bonus.
     
  30. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    49,460
    Likes Received:
    26,118
    10mm of rain will be more like 10cm+ at tomorrow's temps.
     
  31. jungfrau

    jungfrau Active Member

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2013
    Messages:
    479
    Likes Received:
    240
    It will snow*
     
  32. snowblowa

    snowblowa Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Jun 15, 2010
    Messages:
    872
    Likes Received:
    746
    Sorry CC, off topic but can I just say, geez Fallen, that's awesome man! We arrived Sunday evening too, the freeze level was progged for like 1500 and about 5 mins after the last resort entry booth, I said to the lads, 'well, I reckon this rain has gotta go white soon boys'.... 3 turns later it sleeted it's melons off, and the rest my man was farkin history! We did laps off inter into cabbage patch, rock garden, gully glades non stop, dry as Oz gets, freakin special man :D
     
  33. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2001
    Messages:
    4,560
    Likes Received:
    1,661
    Doesn't take into account tonight either
     
    glengary likes this.
  34. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2001
    Messages:
    4,560
    Likes Received:
    1,661
    Back in the day, before cams and Jane's weather, this used to be the go sign for snow.
     
    Ozgirl likes this.
  35. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2001
    Messages:
    4,560
    Likes Received:
    1,661
  36. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    49,460
    Likes Received:
    26,118
  37. Bloke

    Bloke Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Oct 21, 2011
    Messages:
    712
    Likes Received:
    1,007
  38. CarveMan

    CarveMan aussieskier.com
    Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    May 12, 2000
    Messages:
    66,605
    Likes Received:
    21,215
    climberman and benchives like this.
  39. the133448

    the133448 Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2015
    Messages:
    56
    Likes Received:
    45
    Can i ask why bom have cancelled the warning?
    Cancellation of
    Severe Weather Warning
    for people in the North Central, North East, Central, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland forecast districts

    Issued at 9:05 pm EST on Thursday 23 June 2016.

    Weather Situation
    A cold front over eastern Victoria will clear the State early on Friday.

    The Severe Weather Warning for the North Central, North East, Central, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland forecast districts has been cancelled, but the situation will continue to be monitored and further warnings will be issued if necessary.
     
  40. skimax

    skimax Old And Crusty
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 25, 2000
    Messages:
    30,035
    Likes Received:
    2,969
    Amazing low stall last night
     
    mick chopps likes this.
  41. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    49,460
    Likes Received:
    26,118
    yep. stopped on a dime. Sat pick looks awesome, you can see it stop and start sucking the moisture from that central QLD trough.
    [​IMG]
    spin baby, spin!
     
  42. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
    Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    91,246
    Likes Received:
    27,968
    The warning was for winds. The winds have eased.
     
    Vermillion likes this.
  43. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Silver

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2014
    Messages:
    768
    Likes Received:
    1,297
    Is this good or bad for snow falls?
     
  44. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    49,460
    Likes Received:
    26,118
    good. IMO. especially for the Northern resorts who will continue to get snow from the NW throughout the morning. This is their best aspect for bulk snow falls.
     
    Lady Penelope likes this.
  45. skimax

    skimax Old And Crusty
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 25, 2000
    Messages:
    30,035
    Likes Received:
    2,969
    well ill leave that one to the experts ,
    but my laymans view means the cold air will hang round longer provided there is moisture with it all good
     
    Lady Penelope likes this.