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Predictions: Early June (Long Range)

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Stratus, May 12, 2012.

  1.  
    Stratus

    Stratus Addicted Member

    Going way out on a limb here, but ... around the end of the month the Spag Plot is showing some squiggily goodness (and has been for the last few days). A sexy node for sure.

    [​IMG]
    (will update)

    I'm sure others have noticed this too...could it be...could it be. ?
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  2.  
    cin

    cin Part of the Furniture Season Pass Holder

    Re: Predictions: May 27th - June 2nd ish (Long Range)

    it could
    and it may not be
    either one of those two scenarios
    IMO
  3.  
    loweee

    loweee Dedicated Member

    Re: Predictions: May 27th - June 2nd ish (Long Range)

    This has shown up and vanishesd a couple of times on extended GFS and EC. Will be one to watch over the next few days. Big dump these dates = season starter
  4.  
    Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room

    Re: Predictions: May 27th - June 2nd ish (Long Range)

    Now looking like it could be a couple of days earlier. LWT thinks there is potential on these dates.
  5.  
    Stratus

    Stratus Addicted Member

    Re: Predictions: May 27th - June 2nd ish (Long Range)

    Yep, it looks like it's been pushed back, now covered in the 22nd Thread.

    However, LWT tonight shows another system following it, coming through around these dates.

    The both look very impressive IMO.
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 26, 2013
  6.  
    Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve Dedicated Member

    Re: Predictions: May 27th - June 2nd ish (Long Range)

    Bears would like plain language speak on this please.

    Have we identified a possible group of days in which we can epect blizzard over a few days??

    Cos we are wondering if there will be any natural snow available on QBW in NE Vic.

    Have have seen that Baw Baw did well out of last system but are not holding our breath in regard to xc across any of Bogong Highplains yet.
    Last dump has probably all but gone.Was nice cold powder falling on us in Pretty Valley late saturday night and early sunday morning but so much had disappeared by the time we left Falls Ck late Sunday.
    Talk us thro the Spaggetti model please. [​IMG]
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  7.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator

    Re: Predictions: May 27th - June 2nd ish (Long Range)

    Has this system been merged with the 23-27th system? Because, IMO this period is in between systems.
  8.  
    Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator

    Re: Predictions: May 27th - June 2nd ish (Long Range)

    yep. What was there ain't there any more.. Next window with a sniff 9 junish IMO (i don't have any confidence in my precision so ish is pretty loose)..

    after another look GFS at +372 is giving a sniff for the end of this window..after some prefrontal but that's GFS.

    So maybe May31- Jun3
  9.  
    Stratus

    Stratus Addicted Member

    Re: Predictions: May 27th - June 2nd ish (Long Range)

    Still looks like some activity around 31st
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  10.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator

    Re: Predictions: May 27th - June 2nd ish (Long Range)

    Ok we you have more detail we can update the date range.
  11.  
    rocketboy

    rocketboy Well-Known Member

    Re: Predictions: May 27th - June 2nd ish (Long Range)

    This is the 10 day EC range - any comments from the bears and cooks. Plus there's another whole week of weather after this before QB LWE.
  12.  
    Stratus

    Stratus Addicted Member

    Re: Predictions: May 27th - June 2nd ish (Long Range)

    Hard to say for sure. IMO no action for these dates now, with a dominating high pressure system likely. LWT has gone off it. However ACCESS-G disagrees, showing something coming through around the 30th.
  13.  
    PG

    PG Old And Crusty

    Re: Predictions: May 27th - June 2nd ish (Long Range)

    The 12Z ACCESS-G run has a big fat high pressure system over Southern Australia for the rest of the month (after the weekend systems)
  14.  
    Katanga

    Katanga New Member

    Re: Predictions: May 27th - June 2nd ish (Long Range)

    Looks like something showing up around the 5th but it is a long way out so will wait a few days before starting a thread.
  15.  
    Donza

    Donza Old And Crusty Season Pass Holder

    Re: Predictions: May 27th - June 2nd ish (Long Range)

    This is on
    IMO

    spag says hello
  16.  
    Katanga

    Katanga New Member

    Re: Predictions: May 27th - June 2nd ish (Long Range)

    Noticed that as well. Spag is looking nice.
  17.  
    badabing

    badabing New Member

    Re: Predictions: May 27th - June 2nd ish (Long Range)

    Nothing until about 2nd IMO
  18.  
    Katanga

    Katanga New Member

    Re: Predictions: May 27th - June 2nd ish (Long Range)

    I am seeing some real goodness between the 6th and 10th. Dates may move slightly but the Antarctic rotation is looking sweet. Give it a few days and we should be able to lock in a reasonable date range.
  19.  
    Donza

    Donza Old And Crusty Season Pass Holder

    Re: Predictions: May 27th - June 2nd ish (Long Range)

    Spag still very interested....so am i
  20.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator

    Re: Predictions: May 27th - June 2nd ish (Long Range)

    Currently looking very wet around the 3 & 4th of June going on EC
    (IMO)
  21.  
    luvthabumps

    luvthabumps Addicted Member

    Re: Predictions: May 27th - June 2nd ish (Long Range)

    Donza & Katanga say it's interesting and you say it's done - you need to substantiate that - they have runs on the board.

    (or does the thread title ned adjusting?? )
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  22.  
    Stratus

    Stratus Addicted Member

    Still a bit of divergence on the models IMO.

    (I also removed the dates in this thread to avoid confusion)
  23.  
    luvthabumps

    luvthabumps Addicted Member

    ahh, snap Stratus ( re thread dates)
  24.  
    BenLomond Iceman

    BenLomond Iceman Dedicated Member

    Looking like a cold & wet (snowy ) southerly blast around the 9-10th June on today 16 days long range chart.. Will probably be gone tomorrow
  25.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator

    EC going for snow after a fair bit of rain.
    IMO I'm not really convinced of this one, temps seem variable. At this stage yr.no showing 30cm+ (hotham) on the 5th after 30mm rain.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  26.  
    mnemic

    mnemic New Member

    Re: Predictions: May 27th - June 2nd ish (Long Range)

    Latest BOM looks like a winner 31st or 1st June, as IMO the high off WA will force the front across. Just how far the cold gets squeezed southwards is anyones guess at the moment.
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  27.  
    badabing

    badabing New Member

    Re: Predictions: May 27th - June 2nd ish (Long Range)

    Looks like rain and no snow below about 1800m in the system that'll be over the alps on 2nd-somethin June. Then temps may drop lower after 1-2 days and snow a bit less that what we had 22-27th.

    IMO
  28.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator

    And pffft it's gone on the next run.
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  29.  
    Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator

    i think i change in dates for the thread is needed. can't see anything before the 4th/5th. More interested in something brewing around the 8th/9th
  30.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator

    The thread is already titled "Re: Predictions: Early June" so I guess it's fairly open-ended. [​IMG]
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  31.  
    kiter

    kiter Well-Known Member

    OMG the pressure is on . Snow all over the cams ,plenny of Ski.com.au tragics armed with season passes .Will the next system deliver or will it all be washed away .?
  32.  
    Cubed

    Cubed New Member

    IMO a bit on the 6th, maybe 5-10cm of snow flurry accumulation for NSW after a lot of rain mostly.
  33.  
    Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room

    Cant see much happening here. If you believe AXS (remember it's the best model, developed in AUS for AUS) VIC will get 3 days of 50mm+ each day rain, some areas of Gippsland will get even more. GFS is going less extreme and a low more in SA. There is a trough pumping hot feral moisture from North to South down the NT/QLD and SA/NSW borders, which I do not like one bit. It is a deep looking trough so it could potentially pump a lot of moisture in. It's so strong it helps flatten out the LWT over this period. In short, i'm finding it hard to see much snow out of this.
  34.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator

    And yet EC is showing 10cm snow form the 3rd to the 6th IMO

    Go figure.
  35.  
    Donza

    Donza Old And Crusty Season Pass Holder

    Spag looks interested aye

    So am I
  36.  
    Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator

    i discounted the 3rd because it looks too warm... The 4th looks more likely for snow.
  37.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator

    I'm not really convinced at the moment. EC has been consistent about the "shape" although temps have been a bit variable.
    Looks cold in NZ.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  38.  
    ice_man

    ice_man Dedicated Member

    Urghh... disgusting troughy system on the way from about 2nd June onwards... we don't need any more rain, we just want snow now! I'm seeing potential for some big falls yet again at this stage.
  39.  
    PG

    PG Old And Crusty

    This looks like a repeat of the last system. Roll the dice and see if the wandering cold pool will intersect with the tropical moisture.
    At +168 hours ACCESS-G is predicting Noah's Ark, GFS is onboard but the EC is much more subdued.
  40.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator

    3pm GFS sure has a lot of moisture , IMO

    [​IMG]

    Looks kinda similar to EC above

    [​IMG]
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  41.  
    slalom pete

    slalom pete Well-Known Member

    It'll be like the last system on the charts all over the place like a fart in a trance.
  42.  
    Mils

    Mils Dedicated Member

    CC the above chart reads like rain IMHO
  43.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator

    GFS certainly does. Although 850 hPa temps are zero over Tasmania for this period.
    IMO
  44.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator

    EC has sub-zero 850 hPa's from the 2nd through to the 7th over the alps.
    But very little moisture on this afternoon's run. Plenty of divergence between models.

    IMO of course.
  45.  
    badabing

    badabing New Member

    There won't be much, if any anow below 1800m IMO. But let's hope I'm wrong. Different models look different and we should get more accurate come the weekend.
  46.  
    Falls expat

    Falls expat New Member

    A relatively low snowfall month looks on the cards which is normal for this time of year. The long wave trough will be attracted towards the Indian Monsoon onset leading to down stream high pressure over S or SE parts of Australia. The only thing that may upset this is if the MJO breaks out and does a cycle, but current forecasts are looking a bit flakey for this to happen after an extended period of inactivity.
    MJO including seasonal changes

    Bias corrected EC MJO forecast with seasonal changes removed.
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 15, 2013
  47.  
    Katanga

    Katanga New Member

    As Falls said.

    If you look at the Polar MSLP you see some good systems brewing in the Indian SE of South Africa but the Highs around Aus seem to start to develope SW of Perth and then drift very slowly into the bite forcing all "good" systems south.

    This can change fairly quickly or can even lead to good snow as we saw last June, but at the moment, I cant see much to get excited about.

    [​IMG]
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  48.  
    Katanga

    Katanga New Member

    The current trailing High, as at the 2nd June, looks like stalling into the 13th June which is not good for fresh snow but is good for snowmaking. IF you trust the models.

    The cold fronts and low pressure systems are lining up south west of Perth so the big question is, when will the High Presure over Central Aus either weaken or move East???

    I can see a good burst of cold air and moisture starting as rain on the 14th and turning to snow for the 15th and 16th.

    Anyone running Sisfm may like to stard a thread for for the 13 to 18th June
  49.  
    Alfred14

    Alfred14 Well-Known Member

    [​IMG]

    EC showing similar except maybe the low forming a bit further south
    [​IMG]

    Something happening from the 13th to 16th not sure what to make of it though
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  50.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator

    yes, I think so. Looks wet initially but some snow perhaps 15th onwards?

    EC yr.no showing 5cm for the 14th at Hotham.