Predictions: 3rd - 7th June system (SiSFM market - Frida - AU)

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Claude Cat, May 29, 2012.

  1.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator

    IMO latest runs of GFS have the cold air delayed until later tomorrow.

    [​IMG]

    AXS too. Perhaps 10am in the south and 4pm in the North.

    [​IMG]
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  2.  
    filski

    filski Old And Crusty

    Know you know why it's called the pub run - that one had its back teeth floating [​IMG]
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  3.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator

    [​IMG]. 3am run actually has more rain than that.

    Interesting AXS, UKmet & EC has the low bombing around 989 hPa just off Eden on Monday night, while GFS has it well into the Tasman.
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  4.  
    filski

    filski Old And Crusty

    Nah, still early morning transition for temps IMO. Those 850's have low heights ~1400m at 10am on Tuesday.
  5.  
    Hermon

    Hermon Dedicated Member

    Jane Bunn is going for 30-40cm above 1700mm or so. Very optimistic IMO, but I hope she's right.
  6.  
    snowpyro

    snowpyro Active Member

    she has been spot on for the last two systems...
  7.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator

    Vic BOM has issued flood watches and warnings.

    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 29, 2013
  8.  
    skiflat

    skiflat New Member

    Bom saying 30-40mm for Melbourne, 100mm for Eastern Vic
  9.  
    Snorkler

    Snorkler Addicted Member

    It's looking like the incoming is wet.
  10.  
    viswin

    viswin New Member

    Severe Weather Warning
    for damaging winds, heavy rain and damaging surf
    for people in the Snowy Mountains, Metropolitan, South Coast, Illawarra, Hunter and Southern Tablelands forecast districts

    Issued at 11:08 am EST on Monday 4 June 2012.
    Weather Situation

    HIGH WINDS AND LARGE WAVES TO AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN NSW FROM TONIGHT

    A deepening low pressure system is expected to move along the southern NSW coast Monday night and Tuesday.

    Damaging winds with peak gusts around 110 km/h are forecast for the following forecast districts from tonight: South Coast, Illawarra, Metropolitan, Hunter, Snowy Mountains.

    Very heavy surf, combined with water levels above the highest tide of the year, may lead to flooding of low lying areas and coastal erosion, particularly around the time of high tide, on the southern half of the coast. High tides are at around 8pm tonight, then around 9am and 9pm on Tuesday. Forecast districts to be affected include: South Coast, Illawarra, Metropolitan and Hunter. Beach conditions in these areas will be dangerous and people should stay well away from the surf and surf exposed areas.

    Very heavy rain may also lead to flash flooding in the South Coast and Snowy Mountains forecast districts tonight.

    Major communities to be affected by this system include:

    * Bombala, Eden, Merimbula & Batemans Bay (from tonight),

    * Wollongong (from overnight tonight for winds, and from later Tuesday morning for waves),

    * Sydney (from later Tuesday afternoon)

    * Central Coast and Newcastle (from Tuesday evening).

    The State Emergency Service advises that people should:

    Move vehicles under cover or away from trees.
    Secure or put away loose items around your house, yard and balcony.
    Keep clear of fallen power lines.
    Don't drive, ride or walk through flood water.
    Keep clear of creeks and storm drains.
    If you are trapped by flash flooding, seek refuge in the highest available place and ring 000 if you need rescue.

    For emergency help in floods and storms, ring your local SES Unit on 132 500.

    The next warning will be issued by 5:00 pm EST Monday.

    This warning is also available through TV and Radio broadcasts; the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 218.
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 15, 2013
  11.  
    Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room

    Been raining lightly all morning here. By lightly I mean the raindrops themselves are light but you are getting soaked very quickly. As it's coming from the E/SE I am skeptical about the amounts, a lot of the time you will see fronts and rainbands die out just to the East of Westernport when they come up across Gippsland.
  12.  
    Stratus

    Stratus Addicted Member

    I can't see Falls getting too much snow from the East / South East. Falls generally doesn't pick up heaps from that direction due to the Topography of mountains to the east.

    IMO
  13.  
    mr

    mr Part of the Furniture

    i was hotham one november about 5 years ago when we got 30-40cm overnight from an ECL
  14.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator

    "3pm" 00z GFS run not much change from 9am run. Low is now the same as the other models (mostly) IMO.
    Cold air not expected till later tomorrow (as per GFS chart above).
  15.  
    skiflat

    skiflat New Member

    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 15, 2013
  16.  
    Mils

    Mils Dedicated Member

    Ack its genna get smashed... I hope some repair can be done from the follow on (imho)
  17.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator

    yr.no has it snowing earlier than that. IMO
  18.  
    filski

    filski Old And Crusty

    Going to continue to back my Tuesday morning call. Looks safe for a transition between 6am-10am IMO
  19.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator

    Vic BOM going for heavy snow for Hotham tonight before clearing with snow showers tomorrow. Sadly it's only got heavy rain for Buller & Falls, before snow showers tomorrow. So I guess that's 1800m & above for snow.
  20.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator

    Yeh, I think this about right. Although above 1800m should see snow a fair bit earlier, IMO
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  21.  
    Dacer

    Dacer Active Member

    Question: places above about 1750m asl seem to be snowing atm, is that level expected to increase during the night before the real cold air arrives or is this gonna be the approx snow level until then?
  22.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator

    I wouldn't have thought it would go up. At a guess slowly lowering.
  23.  
    Dacer

    Dacer Active Member

    3.2 at perisher...oh well. either a rise because the rain has eased (and stopped pulling cold air down) and it'll drop when the next band comes through or a legitimate increase in temperatures which means we have to wait for the low to suck in some cold air from the south [​IMG]
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  24.  
    Mils

    Mils Dedicated Member

    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 15, 2013
  25.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator

    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 15, 2013