NZ Predictions & Observations 2017

Discussion in 'Weather' started by ScottGN, May 18, 2017.

  1. ScottGN

    ScottGN Dedicated Member
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    We're in a northerly flow this morning with rain about the Divide and scattered showers further east. The snow level will probably get a bit higher as the day goes on. TC and CP could see some rain at the base.
     
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  2. Red_switch

    Red_switch Part of the Furniture
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    Late this week could be bonkers for Southland/Otago.
     
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  3. Draizuh

    Draizuh Dedicated Member

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    #breadandmilk

    I might buy a D40 dozer. Does Japan sell second hand road blowers???
     
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  4. Secretcookie

    Secretcookie Active Member

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    Some nice turns at dobson this weekend
     

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  5. Rabid K9

    Rabid K9 Dedicated Member
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    Has NZ had a population boom?

    Don't think I've seen near that many cars at Dobson?
     
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  6. Rabid K9

    Rabid K9 Dedicated Member
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    The far north looks like it might blow right off the rest of the North Island!!
     
  7. col

    col Active Member

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    Canterbury should get 5cm or so today....Friday morning:

    [​IMG]
     
    #307 col, Jul 17, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 17, 2017
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  8. sbm

    sbm Dedicated Member
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    Another chart...hoo boy yes please

    [​IMG]
     
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  9. sbm

    sbm Dedicated Member
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    EC has the low further north and west

    [​IMG]
     
  10. col

    col Active Member

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    it could be another 50cm for Mt. Hutt on Friday
     
  11. Secretcookie

    Secretcookie Active Member

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    Nah just all the locals, and people from Queenstown, wanaka and Christchurch escaping their local tourist overrun resorts like hutt and coronet from what I could tell
     
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  12. col

    col Active Member

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  13. Froff Life

    Froff Life Dedicated Member
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    Another super storm coming later this week
     
  14. Froff Life

    Froff Life Dedicated Member
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    Wanaka and Queenstown resorts finally getting their share of the snow on Thursday/Friday
     
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  15. ajmit3

    ajmit3 Active Member

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    Cragieburn got rained on and I'm not sure its open now... :(. Going to face the hordes at Hutt.. :(

    The coming weather looks good.
     
  16. sbm

    sbm Dedicated Member
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    Yeah saw that, dislike.

    While it's school holidays, it is midweek, surely Hutt won't be too crazy for crowds. Could be worse, could be Perisher ha ha...
     
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  17. sbm

    sbm Dedicated Member
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    Yeah finally, but that also looks like another bullseye for Mt Dobson (and Roundhill/Ohau) they are looking fantastic this year.
     
  18. Froff Life

    Froff Life Dedicated Member
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    Very true, Lake Tekapo area has been smashed this July!
     
  19. ScottGN

    ScottGN Dedicated Member
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    Snow pencilled in for Queenstown early next week too on the long range.
     
  20. Draizuh

    Draizuh Dedicated Member

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    To be honest ive never seen some of the BC areas of the remarks so filled in so early in the season..
     
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  21. Crispy013

    Crispy013 Dedicated Member

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    TC claiming 30-40cm today....drool. Would love first tracks tomorrow.
     
  22. ScottGN

    ScottGN Dedicated Member
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    Get the picture?
    [​IMG]
     
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  23. Froff Life

    Froff Life Dedicated Member
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    I predict 80 cms for the Canterbury fields by Sunday, Craigieburn should be able to open up after that!
     
  24. Call_me_Ishmael

    Call_me_Ishmael Well-Known Member

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    Off topic sorry:
    @Draizuh @Red_switch @ScottGN
    Any recommendations for guiding(heli ok) into Doolan's?
    Did it once in the 90's as a hike but long story short was a bit of a balls up and I haven't ventured back
    Any suggestions welcomed
    Into QZN Monday for 10 days then back in September with the kids
     
  25. sbm

    sbm Dedicated Member
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    GFS

    [​IMG]

    And EC

    [​IMG]
     
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  26. sbm

    sbm Dedicated Member
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    Nah they'll still be shut, but for avy control instead!
     
  27. Call_me_Ishmael

    Call_me_Ishmael Well-Known Member

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    Rainbow!!!
     
  28. ScottGN

    ScottGN Dedicated Member
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    Metservice rainfall accumulation for the rest of the week. Friday looks pretty insane for Canterbury (again).
    [​IMG]
     
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  29. Draizuh

    Draizuh Dedicated Member

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    Its fairly easy to hike into if you have a bit of a clue about BC. If not, IMG based out of Smallplanet backcountry in Queenstown do guiding up there i believe.
     
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  30. sbm

    sbm Dedicated Member
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    Downgrade for Canterbury...now looking like the temps will be struggling and a bit of a washout before the snow arrives...

    (EC for friday. Light green is 0c at 850hpa aka 1500m

    [​IMG]
     
  31. Call_me_Ishmael

    Call_me_Ishmael Well-Known Member

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    Looked like temps were always going to be an issue but some of the early runs had a bizarre wandering coldpool sitting over the lower North Island
    That hasn't appeared in recent runs and the 5440 is struggling to get over Bluff Island
    Jury's still out but I think there may be some rain IMO
    Southern Lakes may escape the worst of the big moisture before it gets cold enough for snow though
     
  32. Red_switch

    Red_switch Part of the Furniture
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    Advection will likely be a factor in inland otago - not well resolved by models
     
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  33. Froff Life

    Froff Life Dedicated Member
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    My prediction has turned out to be horribly optimistic and all the models this morning have changed haha.
     
  34. col

    col Active Member

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    Metservice reckon 70cm for Mt Hutt and 143cm for Dobson on Friday.
     
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  35. Froff Life

    Froff Life Dedicated Member
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    Temps will be an issue for the first half of the day though, r**n below 1700m for a while
     
  36. Ajmit321

    Ajmit321 Active Member

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    Derailing the thread but Hutt was a bit crappy yesterday, arrived 9:10 top car park was full had a long queue for bus.

    Found the triple deserted though still a rock or two on it. Thought 6 seater at lunch would be OK but wasnt. Waited 30 mins. Best run on had was refrozen crud down black run chutes which was fun. Even with big snowfall coming up will not go back, if weekend or school holidays. 104 bucks not well spent. They need more lift capacity if they are handing out 300 season passes. Gives good numbers to management though for bonuses
     
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  37. Froff Life

    Froff Life Dedicated Member
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    Where they running the buses to pick people up from Rakaia Saddle?
     
  38. sbm

    sbm Dedicated Member
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    In backcountry conditions, I note Canterbury has a persistent slab problem at the moment. Yuck.
     
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  39. ajmit3

    ajmit3 Active Member

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    Yeah that's where we were, but worse they were sending empty buses down past us rewarding people who had got there later.... Touring is where it's at more and more. NZ twice a year 'powder' or club fields is where I'm gonna buy a ticket. Maybe Still want one day at TC.
     
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  40. sbm

    sbm Dedicated Member
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    @Call_me_Ishmael I also note there's a persistent slab avalanche problem in the Southern Lakes at the moment. Given that, I would say guiding is very highly recommend, and I would expect they would be taking you to pretty mellow terrain unfortunately.

    With the coming rain and snow, I wonder if we'll see a few monster deep slabs avalanches, either when the water percolates down to the buried weak layers, or when the snow directly overloads them.
     
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  41. Red_switch

    Red_switch Part of the Furniture
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    Yeah the snow coming in over the next few days is likely to be fairly dense which won't help with loading. Facets have been developing everywhere lately.
     
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  42. ScottGN

    ScottGN Dedicated Member
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    Updated Metservice Severe Weather Outlook issued a 3.11pm today
    [​IMG]
     
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  43. sbm

    sbm Dedicated Member
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    From what I can see, temps just barely cold enough. GFS 850hpa temp

    [​IMG]

    EC 850hpa temp (green is freezing)

    [​IMG]

    Now I don't really know what I'm doing with using "uppers" to help forecast snow, but the 500hpa temp on GFS also look like it has a big warm plume.

    [​IMG]

    Now, having said all that...Metservice still warning of heavy snow above 400m! Definitely their experience trumps my armchair model interpretation.
     
  44. Froff Life

    Froff Life Dedicated Member
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    It does look to be too warm tomorrow, with freezing temps during the day in Canterbury above 1800m
     
  45. col

    col Active Member

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    Metservice computer still thinks 150cm for Dobson.....100 cm for Roundhill and 66cm for Mt Hutt tomorrow
     
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  46. ScottGN

    ScottGN Dedicated Member
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    Snow level looks to be about 700m tomorrow now.
     
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  47. ScottGN

    ScottGN Dedicated Member
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    Latest Severe Weather Warning from Metservice

    SEVERE WEATHER WARNING.
    ISSUED BY MetService AT 11:44 am 20-Jul-2017
    Heavy rain for Bay of Plenty, Canterbury and eastern Otago. Also, strong winds for Auckland, Bay of Plenty and Gisborne.

    NOTE: THIS IS AN UPDATE TO INCREASE THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR SOUTH CANTERBURY, NORTH OTAGO AND DUNEDIN.

    A large complex low pressure system is expected to move over the country today and slowly move east during Friday and Saturday. An associated front crosses the North Island, bringing a period of severe gale northeasterlies and a burst of heavy rain to northern parts of the Island. The strongest winds are expected in Bay of Plenty and Gisborne where northeast gusts could reach 120 km/h in exposed places. Heavy rain is expected in Bay of Plenty and Rotorua from this afternoon to overnight tonight, and 100mm of rain could accumulate in 12 hours.

    Rain is also expected to become heavy over eastern districts of the South Island during Friday and continue into Saturday as the complex low pressure system moves east. The heaviest falls are expected in Canterbury south of the Rakaia River and eastern Otago where up to 200mm of rain could accumulate, with snow lowering to 800 metres about the Canterbury High Country and 600 metres in Otago during Friday evening.

    This is a significant weather event and the combination of heavy rain and strong winds is expected to cause widespread disruption to transport, localised flooding and slips. Winds of this strength can cause damage to trees, powerlines, unsecured roofs and structures, and make driving hazardous. Also in the South Island, wind chill due to cold temperatures and strong winds could cause stress to livestock.

    Note, large south to southeast waves may cause coastal inundation along south Canterbury and Otago coasts during Friday and Saturday.

    HEAVY RAIN WARNING
    AREA/S AFFECTED
    Bay of Plenty and Rotorua
    FORECAST
    Rain is expected to become heavy this afternoon, and ease overnight tonight.

    In the 12 hours from 2pm this afternoon to 2am Friday morning, expect 90 to 100mm of rain to accumulate. Peak intensities of 20 to 30mm per hour.

    AREA/S AFFECTED
    Canterbury north of the Rakaia River
    FORECAST
    Rain is expected to become heavy Friday morning and ease overnight Friday.

    In the 20 hour period from 6am Friday to 2am Saturday, expect 120 to 160mm of rain about the Foothills and ranges and 80 to 100mm towards the coast. Peak intensities of 15 to 20mm per hour. However, above 800 metres, rain turns to snow from Friday evening.

    FREEZING LEVEL: About 2000 metres, lowering to 1100 metres Friday evening.

    AREA/S AFFECTED
    Canterbury south of the Rakaia River and North Otago
    FORECAST
    Rain is expected to become heavy Friday morning and ease during Saturday morning.

    In the 25 hour period from 7am Friday to 8am Saturday, expect 150 to 200mm of rain to accumulate. Peak intensities of 15 to 20mm per hour.

    FREEZING LEVEL: About 2000 metres, lowering to 1100 metres Friday evening.

    AREA/S AFFECTED
    Dunedin
    FORECAST
    Rain is expected to become heavy around midday Friday and ease early Saturday morning.

    In the 18 hour period from midday Friday to 6am Saturday, expect 150 to 200mm of rain to accumulate. Peak intesities of 15 to 20mm per hour.

    FREEZING LEVEL: About 2000 metres, lowering to 1000 metres Friday evening.

    STRONG WIND WARNING
    AREA/S AFFECTED
    Auckland and Great Barrier Island
    FORECAST
    Northeast gales are expected to become severe this (Thursday) afternoon, gusting 100 km/h, then ease this evening.

    AREA/S AFFECTED
    Bay of Plenty, Rotorua and Gisborne
    FORECAST
    Northeast gales are expected to become severe this (Thursday) afternoon, gusting 120 km/h in exposed places, easing overnight tonight.

    NEXT SEVERE WEATHER WARNING WILL BE ISSUED AT OR BEFORE 9:00 pm Thursday 20-Jul-2017
     
  48. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    How is the discrepancy in the model output.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  49. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    The cold uppers are not showing on the MSLP and rainfall map
     
  50. Froff Life

    Froff Life Dedicated Member
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    The report from Metservice says freezing level up around 2,000m before lowering to 700m, so again, a lot of rain first, followed by some wet snow