NZ Predictions & Observations 2017

Discussion in 'Weather' started by ScottGN, May 18, 2017.

  1. ScottGN

    ScottGN Dedicated Member
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    Maybe time for a Predictions and Obs thread for NZ this winter.
    Metservice has issued a heavy snow warning across the south for Friday and Saturday

    SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR HAWKES BAY, TARARUA, WAIRARAPA, NELSON,FIORDLAND, NORTH OTAGO, CENTRAL OTAGO, SOUTHERN LAKES, DUNEDIN,CLUTHA,SOUTHLAND, STEWART ISLAND ISSUED BY METSERVICE AT 0958hrs 18-May-2017

    WEST TO SOUTHWEST GALES FOR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW ZEALAND, AND HEAVY SNOW FOR SOUTHERN NEW ZEALAND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY

    A strong, west to southwesterly flow over New Zealand strengthens for a time during Friday and Saturday as an embedded front moves northwards. Very cold air follows this front, and snow is expected to fall to low levels over southern New Zealand for a time, with significant accumulations possible on the hills above 400 metres, which will also likely affect some higher roads.

    This WATCH is for the possibility of heavy snow above 400 metres in the following areas...

    STEWART ISLAND, FIORDLAND, SOUTHLAND, CLUTHA, DUNEDIN, AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL OTAGO AND SOUTHERN LAKES: From Friday afternoon until Saturday evening.

    This WATCH also covers the possibility of severe west to southwest gales in the following areas...

    DUNEDIN AND NORTH OTAGO: From mid-morning Friday until early Friday evening.

    NORTHWEST NELSON: From Friday evening until the early hours of Saturday.

    WAIRARAPA, ESPECIALLY THE TARARUA DISTRICT, AND HAWKES BAY SOUTH OF NAPIER: From Friday evening until around dawn Saturday.

    People in these areas are advised to keep up to date with forecasts in case parts of this WATCH are upgraded to WARNING or further areas are added.

    Note, the threat of heavy rain for central parts of New Zealand has has now passed so all Watches for heavy rain are lifted. Also, the threat of northwest gales becoming severe about South Taranaki across to Taihape, and Hawkes Bay today has passed, so these Watches are also lifted.

    This Watch will be reviewed by 9:30pm Thursday May 18th
     
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  2. ScottGN

    ScottGN Dedicated Member
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    Updated Weatherwatch
    [​IMG]
     
  3. Zimboo

    Zimboo Addicted Member

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    What do we think? 1ft storm for the lakes?
     
  4. ScottGN

    ScottGN Dedicated Member
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    Remarks could easily get that.
     
  5. Froff Life

    Froff Life Dedicated Member
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    But will it stick around until winter?
     
  6. ScottGN

    ScottGN Dedicated Member
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  7. ScottGN

    ScottGN Dedicated Member
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    Southland rain radar shows the initial front moving in
    [​IMG]
     
  8. ScottGN

    ScottGN Dedicated Member
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    Midnight Friday when the coldest air is set to move in. Metservice is forecasting freezing level lowering to 200asl at this point.
    [​IMG]
     
  9. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    The Southern South Island coast will get a freezing level from 500-700m, but inland FLs of 200m are very possible.
    [​IMG]
     
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  10. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Interesting thought. Longer Term GFS isn't predicting any FLs for South Island above ~2800m. So the higher peaks around Aoraki would be fine for keeping snow. But you'll lose snow below that, including at the resort level. But temps shouldn't go too high.

    As for the forecast, the freezing level forecast on GFS doesn't go below 1200m beyond this current event. Not much snow in the foreseeable future beyond Sunday. EC 10 day snow accum is below. All of this falls between now and Sunday, except for a moderate snow event on Mt Cook and the peaks on the Western side of the ranges next Thursday. But remember early days, but this incoming system would be the big opener for the NZ season, if temps don't increase too much in the next week or so.
    [​IMG]
     
    #10 Jellybeans1000, May 18, 2017
    Last edited: May 18, 2017
  11. ScottGN

    ScottGN Dedicated Member
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    Cardrona started snowmaking last night.
     
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  12. ScottGN

    ScottGN Dedicated Member
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    From the ODT this morning
    [​IMG]
     
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  13. Dumph

    Dumph Active Member

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    Can't understand why they would make snow so far out still? Just asking for a warm nor'west rain front to come through?
     
  14. ScottGN

    ScottGN Dedicated Member
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    Maybe they're hoping that a bit of durable manmade mixed in with natural will get them through to opening day? I guess they have to start sometime.
     
  15. ScottGN

    ScottGN Dedicated Member
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    Southland rain radar starting to pop. Snow is apparently falling in the Maniototo.
    [​IMG]
     
  16. ScottGN

    ScottGN Dedicated Member
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    Dunedin currently on 4c with some pretty chunky showers. The northern motorway is expected to close later this evening.
     
  17. Red_switch

    Red_switch Part of the Furniture
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    Bit of snow in the hill suburbs already. Though this shouldn't really close the northern motorway... Oh wait, central govt slashed road maintenance funding
     
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  18. Kenziepettit

    Kenziepettit Active Member
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    Any reports from Queenstown? 8pm jetstar was cancelled so I'm guessing it must be pretty wild
     
  19. ScottGN

    ScottGN Dedicated Member
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    I had hardly any snow overnight. It's been snowing steadily for the last hour or so this morning though, proper fat flakes too, settling nicely.
     
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  20. craighelo

    craighelo Active Member

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    Similar in Cromwell, no wind at all
     
  21. Roarkie

    Roarkie Active Member

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    40cm and counting, from The Remarks Facebook.
     
  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    This is why you make snow in May. If the resorts can maximise it to hang around for 4-5 weeks, then why not? The season could be all over by August and then they'd be wishing they made more, and earlier.

    Believe it or not, it costs more (and I am not talking just financial costs) to have infrastructure sitting there unused and staff on standby than if it was all put to work.
     
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  23. SnowBound

    SnowBound Dedicated Member

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    Was sent these photos from a mate this morning. (Jack's Point looking to Remarkables).

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  24. ScottGN

    ScottGN Dedicated Member
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    Ruapehu getting some too
    [​IMG]
     
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  25. ScottGN

    ScottGN Dedicated Member
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    Another one from Jack's Point
    [​IMG]
     
  26. Red_switch

    Red_switch Part of the Furniture
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    Yeah, nah.

     
  27. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    Do tell.
     
  28. ScottGN

    ScottGN Dedicated Member
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    GFS + 168 looks ok for the end of next week.
     
  29. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    [​IMG]
    EC seems to be on par with GFS with a week to go with pressure and temperature. That shows we are coming into more predictable times... well supposedly.

    The EC solution shows 10-40cm across South Island. Snow levels should be in between 1000-1300m, according to EC. This system with the previous system now look to be the season starters, if the models follow through.
     
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  30. Roarkie

    Roarkie Active Member

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    Late may into Early June looks promising. Will be interesting to see how it shapes up..

    [​IMG]
     
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  31. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    NZ got a nice early dump over this past weekend

    I see Remarks got a solid 50cm+ dump
     
  32. craighelo

    craighelo Active Member

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    and had the access road closed
     
  33. ScottGN

    ScottGN Dedicated Member
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    Ski touring on Bank's Peninsula via facebook
    [​IMG]
     
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  34. ScottGN

    ScottGN Dedicated Member
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    Another one from Jack's Point Golf last weekend
     
  35. Roarkie

    Roarkie Active Member

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    Looks like rain for the rest of the month. Might get something going into June.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  36. Red_switch

    Red_switch Part of the Furniture
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    See current outlook.
     
  37. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    You're missing the point. It's like saying "why do you make ANY snow in Australian Resorts when you know it's going to rain...?"
     
  38. ScottGN

    ScottGN Dedicated Member
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    Coronet Peak has started snowmaking.
     
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  39. Red_switch

    Red_switch Part of the Furniture
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    If I see another media release about early snow cover cooling the ground, I will lose it. Ha.