NZ Predictions June

Discussion in 'Weather' started by ScottGN, May 30, 2012.

  1.  
    ScottGN

    ScottGN Dedicated Member

    Looking quite promising for the first week of June for the whole country IMO. Models look to have backed off on moisture a bit (as usual) but if it comes off as currently projected we're looking at the first decent southerly system for winter 2012.
  2.  
    team_v

    team_v Active Member

    As i said in the May thread, 7, 11 and 13 June are my pics but anything more than 4 days out is extremely variable.

    Edit:
    Looks like it's now 2 and 8 June for a pretty fierce system.
  3.  
    Footguy

    Footguy Active Member

    So, I'm along way from being moderately competent of predicting snow in NZ, but the next 6-8 days looks pretty sweet potentially...IMO

    Whats the most ideal set up for Southern lakes area?
  4.  
    MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Part of the Furniture Season Pass Holder

    Models starting to merge favourably for Southern Lakes next week from the 5th on tonight's runs IMO
  5.  
    Kensington

    Kensington Active Member

    Models have backed off the last couple of days putting the more cold unstable air out to the SE of the SouthIsland next week , the ECMWF model looks more positive this morning.

    I think the best set up for snow over the Southern Lakes is the warm advective situation, sub tropical moisture moving onto the region from a northern low. Another very good set up is a polar west/southwest flow associated with a slow moving low system.
  6.  
    MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Part of the Furniture Season Pass Holder

    I think the sub-tropical moisture situation feeds Hutt to Ruapehu more often than not
    Southern Lakes benefits from cold Arctic air and a spinning low near the Chathams
    Agree that the models seemed to have backed off over the past 24 hrs, but I'm hoping this is the normal mid-cycle blues and they come back strong over the weekend
  7.  
    Telestrom

    Telestrom Dedicated Member

    Treble Cone often does very well from moist NWers.

    Was quite a temperature inversion last night. -3C at 8am this morning and around 7C-9C at Coronet Peak.
  8.  
    ScottGN

    ScottGN Dedicated Member

    Agreed s-p. IMO the whole Tasman/Northern Low scenario tends to benefit Mackenzie Country northwards. Mostly I reckon it's because Southern Lakes is quite far west in the scheme of things and 9 times out of 10 the warm moist northern front lands at the Lakes before the cold air arrives - last weekend was a painful case in point...A low near the Chathams can be quite good but like all east/south-east systems (for the Lakes) it needs to have a lot of punch to penetrate sufficiently to drop any meaningful snow.
    As for next week the main culprit I reckon is ECMWF which (as it often does) has progged the high to ridge in faster and more aggressively than the other models. This is affecting Metservice and other forecasters that use this model IMO, we had a similar situation a couple of weeks ago when Metservice forecast a week of sunny, frosty weather when in fact we ended up getting quite decent snowfall. AXS and to a lesser extent GFS have held pretty steady with the moisture and the days they have forecast it IMO. Actually I have been pretty impressed with AXS so far this winter - more accurate than last year.
  9.  
    MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Part of the Furniture Season Pass Holder

    Battle of the Models!
    Agree that AXS has been good for NZ this year...has had temps and rainfall fairly well under control from 72 hrs...no big surprises.
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  10.  
    Telestrom

    Telestrom Dedicated Member

    Just checked the latest Metservice forecasts, and as usual the Queenstown forecast and Remarkables forecast conflict. ATM I'm hoping the mountain forecast is correct.
  11.  
    Kensington

    Kensington Active Member

    Inland Canterbury is the sweet spot for the warm advective snow dumps, Otago/Southland seem to often end up under ridging with a northern Low.

    GFS/ECMWF bring next weeks Tasman low a bit further south now, always something to watch this time of year, sub tropical moisture meeting cold air.
  12.  
    MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Part of the Furniture Season Pass Holder

    Agree that the delivery of the Tasman moisture will be critical to outcome IMO.
    Models have been dropping it lower in recent updates
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  13.  
    Footguy

    Footguy Active Member

    Nz met service not really getting on board for tomorrow. 540 line well above southern lakes for 1/2 a day and they reporting freeze level of 1700m. What am I missing?
  14.  
    MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Part of the Furniture Season Pass Holder

    [​IMG]

    moisture progging lower
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  15.  
    Telestrom

    Telestrom Dedicated Member

    Woke up about 5am this morning feeling very warm. Was pretty obvious why when I checked my weather station.

    [​IMG]
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  16.  
    Kensington

    Kensington Active Member

    The snow chance is Tueday into Wednseday , after that the upper air support looks poor so precipitation tends to be shallow and more coastal.
  17.  
    Telestrom

    Telestrom Dedicated Member

    Issued: 11:24am Sunday 3 Jun 2012


    SPECIAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FIORDLAND, CANTERBURY, OTAGO, SOUTHLAND

    ISSUED BY METSERVICE AT 11:24am Sunday 03-Jun-2012

    COLD OUTBREAK TUESDAY
    AND WEDNESDAY. SNOW TO LOW LEVELS OVER SOUTHERN SOUTH ISLAND

    Forecast :
    A front is expected to cross the South Island on Tuesday preceded by heavy rain
    in western areas and strong northerlies. A very cold south to southwest
    airstream behind the front should spread over Fiordland, Southland and Otago
    Tuesday afternoon and reach Canterbury Tuesday evening. Snow is likely to fall
    to very low levels in the southerly outbreak, including the hills of Dunedin.
    Some heavy falls are possible inland. People in these areas should prepare for
    difficult driving conditions, strong cold winds and a significant wind chill.The
    weather should clear on Wednesday but severe frosts are likely Wednesday night.
    More detailed forecasts will be issued on Monday.
  18.  
    Footguy

    Footguy Active Member

    Oh yes. [​IMG]

    Pretty much perfect setup by the looks.
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  19.  
    ScottGN

    ScottGN Dedicated Member

    Metservice has also issued a severe weather outlook this afternoon detailing where they think this system will impact most. Interestingly models tonight are suggesting a slightly more northerly track for the Tasman Low.

    Severe Weather Outlook
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 15, 2013
  20.  
    Centago

    Centago Active Member

    Well the metservice have rolled out their warnings, 40cm+ expected above 400m in north Canterbury/Marlborough, 25-40cm above 100m.
  21.  
    Footguy

    Footguy Active Member

    Hmmm, looks like most of the moisture is going to miss the Southern lakes. Boo. IMO.
  22.  
    Telestrom

    Telestrom Dedicated Member

    Should be great for the Canterbury fields and in particular Mt Lyford and Hanmer Springs should do very well.
  23.  
    ben4386

    ben4386 New Member

    Looks like we are good to go, only question is how much the Cantebury fields will get

    GFS (via Snowforecast.com) suggesting 60cm for BR, 40cm Mt Hutt. Cooler air predicted to arrive Late tuesday/ very early wednesday.

    EC - more rain before cooler air arrives Wednesday morning, 40cm BR, 35cm Mt Hutt

    ACCESS-R cooler air not until Wed morn, bulk of the precipitation further west, looks like around 20-30cm for both.

    I think Qtown resorts would be lucky to get 10-15cm out of this one.



    Given that temperatures should also remain negative for the rest of the week, you would think that Mt Hutt would be able to open this weekend.
  24.  
    Red_switch

    Red_switch Part of the Furniture

    Yea, looking gnarly good for Canterbury, although it is a lot of snow right on top of a lot of rain, not my preferred scenario for snowpack longevity.

    Southern lakes should get a good flick towards the end of the week, looking reminiscent of opening weekend 2010.
  25.  
    Footguy

    Footguy Active Member

    Latest runs show moisture moving lower.

    Let's hope Bom is right on this one for southern lakes.
  26.  
    Old Navy

    Old Navy New Member

    Looking positive for a good start in Canterbury - I miss being there during these sorts of storms. Reminds me of early June 06

    Canterbury and Marlborough south of Seddon
    FORECAST

    In Canterbury north of the Rangitata River and Marlborough south of Seddon rain is expected to turn to snow overnight Tuesday to Wednesday. In 24 hours from 9pm Tuesday 50cm to 100cm of snow may accumulate above 300 metres and 10 to 40cm may accumulate above 100 metres. Lesser amounts may fall to near sea level. South of the Rangitata River, in the 9 hours from 9pm Tuesday to 6am Wednesday 10 to 20 cm of snow may accumulate above 200 metres and lesser amounts to near sea level.
  27.  
    ben4386

    ben4386 New Member

    Mt Hutt temp now sitting at 0, Radar starting to light up, interestingly cold air not due for a couple of hours, remarks and coronet still above 0 although definitely cooling down.

    Still good for 40-50cm in W to NW Canterbury Fields, 30cm for Mt Hutt IMO.
  28.  
    Telestrom

    Telestrom Dedicated Member

    Remarks and Coronet Peak now below zero.

    The front got a little delayed. Hit Queenstown around 6pm.

    Currently 4.6C at my place, so the coldest air hasn't come through yet.
  29.  
    Red_switch

    Red_switch Part of the Furniture

    The whole system seems to be moving pretty slowly. Down below 2 deg here in Invers, we aren't really in the firing line, but might see the odd flurry tonight (currently clear skies, with a big bank of cloud to the south). It's dry out, so anything we get should hang around for a couple hours tomorrow morning. Can't wait to see what goes down in canterbury overnight...
  30.  
    Telestrom

    Telestrom Dedicated Member

    The system was a bit of a disappointment around Queenstown. I wasn't expecting much from it, but definitely was hoping for more than we received.

    No snow in Queenstown or even on the hills. There's a sprinkle on the mountains, but would be <5cm at best.

    Temperature in the valley only dropped below zero at 7am this morning.

    Still, good cold temps up on the mountains between -7C & -10C.

  31.  
    James B

    James B Dedicated Member

    Woke in Christchurch to a wee dusting around the, but it became more solid and delivered a few inches to the driveway over the next couple of hours. I have just come in from shovel duty and it is still snowing lightly. SNOW-FORECAST called for 50-60 cm for Broken River from this storm. [​IMG]
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  32.  
    Telestrom

    Telestrom Dedicated Member

    Mt Hutt have done pretty well and the fields out west will have done even better.

    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 29, 2013
  33.  
    Red_switch

    Red_switch Part of the Furniture

    We largely missed the snow down here, a skiff overnight, and it's hanging around so far. Was -6 when I arrived at work in Winton this morning, icy as shit out there.
  34.  
    MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Part of the Furniture Season Pass Holder

    It was always about how low the low would go for the Southern Lakes...not quite low enough..but Cardrona looks nice
    AXS 3 day is forecasting some snow maybe 10-15cm for Friday IMO..so with snow making on the M1 at CP and some follow-ups they should make opening
  35.  
    ben4386

    ben4386 New Member

    looks like Mt Hutt actually did the best out of this. Must say it was pretty accurately predicted in terms of area and amount by the majority of the models 4+ days out
  36.  
    Red_switch

    Red_switch Part of the Furniture

    Yeah it was never really going to be a major precip event for the southern lakes, but some bloody cold air is certainly being dragged over the south of the south island. Friday looking good, opening day should be a hoot.
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  37.  
    Telestrom

    Telestrom Dedicated Member

    Couple of pics of the Remarkables taken this morning from Arrowtown. More snow on the Remarks than CP.

    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  38.  
    MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Part of the Furniture Season Pass Holder

    Is it frosty in Arrowtown today Tele?
    Looks like the snow guns are firing on CP from the cams at least
  39.  
    Athletic_Walrus

    Athletic_Walrus New Member

    Been snowing in CHCH solid for about 5 or 6 hours now. Some lovely big dry flakes. Canty ski fields should be getting hammered! Hopefully around 80cm for the storm up there.
  40.  
    Athletic_Walrus

    Athletic_Walrus New Member

    Evidence.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  41.  
    ben4386

    ben4386 New Member

    Craigieburn saying 65cm of snow, on top of what they already had and still snowing, could be certainly be looking at an 80cm snow depth by the end of this

    Mt Hutt reporting upper mountain snow depth of 70cm, 60cm lower mountain.
  42.  
    Telestrom

    Telestrom Dedicated Member

    Not really frosty as it didn't get below zero until this morning, but quite a lot of black ice around.

    Funnily enough around Frankton the roads and paths were completely dry. You wouldn't have known there was any precipitation.
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  43.  
    MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Part of the Furniture Season Pass Holder

    It looked that way from the first photo of the Reamrks
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  44.  
    ben4386

    ben4386 New Member

    pics from mt hutt facebook

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  45.  
    Telestrom

    Telestrom Dedicated Member

    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 15, 2013
  46.  
    Mils

    Mils Dedicated Member

    Its hilariously sad for mainlanders [​IMG] We squeel at the thought of 20cms and the same system pounds NZ for 60cm+ [​IMG]

    Congrats lads go hit it!

    Dammit maybe I should have taken that job in NZ....

    (sorry totally off topic)
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  47.  
    Red_switch

    Red_switch Part of the Furniture

    Arthurs Pass...

    [​IMG]
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  48.  
    gareth_oau

    gareth_oau Old And Crusty Season Pass Holder

    thats a great pic Red Switch
  49.  
    Red_switch

    Red_switch Part of the Furniture

    It's not mine, came from the snow.co.nz fb page.
  50.  
    Red_switch

    Red_switch Part of the Furniture

    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 15, 2013