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NSW Flood Thread 2011-12

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Snow Blowey, Nov 24, 2011.

  1.  
    Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture

    Good to see ABC news showing footgae of north coast floods in the story on Moree floods.

    At 7.00am river was at 10.6m. Supposed to go a little higher than predicted now and getting close to 1955 flood.
  2.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator

    GFS going for a drier spell for the next 7 days which is just as well.
    BOM is showing a still a bit of rain for QLD, but at least there's nothing massive showing up

    [​IMG]
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  3.  
    Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture

    Not NSW but the flooding at St George is huge. To exceed the previous record by 0.6m is a massive increase in the total flow involved with the flood. Thats 0.6m of water over a very wide area. Un believeable.

    A while back i was able to download rating charts (height vs flow) for gauging stations but now i can't find it on the BOM site. Anyone know how i can find them?
  4.  
    Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator

    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  5.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator

    Looks like more rain over the next few days.

    [​IMG]

    I assume the ground will already be very damp so this will run off quickly.
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  6.  
    Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator

    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  7.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator

    wow.
    Could be southern / central NSW turn next week.
  8.  
    Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator

    they are big floodfronts in what I guess are the paroo and warrego and they look like they will pulse down the darling behind this current lot.

    and I suspect some of the "bare earth" is silt drop.
  9.  
    Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture

    tonights GFS is bad for western NSW. like previous events looks like heaps of moisture on the way. We'll find out where it hits in a few days time i guess. I'm on the gold coast at the moment and its pissing down and feral here.
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  10.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator

    Yeh, see the summer weather thread. Going to need some arks, lots of them.
  11.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator

    morning GFS run, only saving grace it's it looks a bit further south than before.

    [​IMG]
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  12.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator

    Looking at the 9am GFS run there are two major events here. One Monday through Wednesday, and another late Thursday / Friday. Could be really nasty as there are massive quantities of water, and the second event will be on top of already saturated soil, IMO
  13.  
    davidg

    davidg Dedicated Member

    +1 CC. Hoping for the SE and Inland NSW's sake that this one does not come off as progged. GFS has been pretty adamant for a few days now though so its looking quite likely, i dont think i have ever seen a chart that comes close to the area and forecast amounts of rainfall in the SE. Wonder if the BOM will issue any flood watch advices for NSW. VIC BOM have already issued some for West and South gippsland.
  14.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator

    Victorian BOM has issued flood watches across the board.
  15.  
    Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture

    Those rainfall totals falling in the western area of NSW would really exacerbate the existing flooding on the Darling. On the slopes and plains hings could get interesting in the lachlan, macquarie and murrumbidgee. A good one to watch.
  16.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator

    Let's hope the 12z GFS run is incorrect.
  17.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator

    BOM expected rainfall for the week.

    [​IMG]

    Spells trouble whichever way you look at it.
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  18.  
    Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture

    Biggest falls have shifted further south in recent forecasts. Now looks like a Murray-Murrumbidgee event. And some good potential for Sydneys water supply dams to reach 100%.
  19.  
    davidg

    davidg Dedicated Member

    Latest EC http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/animate/c...2012300!!!step/

    Wow. Maybe a little bit further north than the latest GFS?

    Seriously NSW BOM need to start posting some flood watch advice bulletins, this event has already begun in the far west and NE SA. Further to that both Vic and SA BOM have the foresight to release some flood watch bulletins. NSW BOM are generally fairly proactive with these sort of things IMO.
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  20.  
    Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture

    they are on to it now.

    Interestingy they have a flood warning for the Nepean. Haven't seen one of those for a long while. A few out in western Sydney may get a surprise when they realise the Nepean actually floods. Plenty of new suburbs have been built out there since the last major flood.
  21.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator

    Impressive - seems to show that NSW will be under a fairly constant rainfall stream for 10 days. A massive amount of moisture coming down from tropical areas.
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  22.  
    Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture

    hey CC. Where do you find those fancy GFS plots?
  23.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator

    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  24.  
    Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator

    the nepean was up the other week so it is primed. if the dams begins spilling and you get one or more of the major downstream tribs well up then things could get interesting....
  25.  
    Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture

    sorry. link is on bottom right. Must open eyes in future.
  26.  
    davidg

    davidg Dedicated Member

    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  27.  
    Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture

    and burrugarang at close to 90%. didn't realise it was that high.
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  28.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator

    You're right - must have been a glitch, I'm certain it was showing 00z run, but it's not now. Perhaps I was the glitch .... [​IMG]
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  29.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator

  30.  
    Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator

    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  31.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator

    EC's take on things for Canberra from Wednesday onwards (there should be a fair bit of rain today too)

    [​IMG]
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  32.  
    Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator

    new flood watch as at 1004 EDT has editted minor- moderate for the HN to moderate otherwise couldn't pick up any other change.
  33.  
    davidg

    davidg Dedicated Member

    Hmmm reckon a few business on castlereagh road will be getting a little worried if both avon and warragamba go over.

    Latest gfs has shifted things about 50ks north. Other than that its almost a carbon copy of the 12z run.
  34.  
    Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture

    i am very surprised about the watch for Murrumbidgee. IF GFS is anywhere near correct then you'd have to think it will be major along the Murrumbidgee. I'd be guessing close to record levels. I guess they don't want to be alarmist. There is some buffer in dams (all about 80%) but not much and Blowering and Burrinjuck don't have any flood mitigation capacity (ie. cannot go above 100%).

    The murray doesn't get a mention but with predictions in the mountains you'd have to be thinking its up for a major flood also. The inputs from VIC alone from the last 24 hours will be pretty decent.
  35.  
    Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator

    Wagga and environs getting heavy falls now according to the radar.
  36.  
    Undies

    Undies Part of the Furniture Season Pass Holder

    As a kid on the Nepean i remember when we had floods almost annually. I recall them being Spring/Autumn events, and they would block the lower entrance to Camden as the bridge there went under, meaning traffic chaos on the Macarthur bridge, and the dream of school being shut until it subsided.

    Re Burragorang, is it actually at 90%? I make it a bit lower than that, with Nepean/Avon being chockers, giving us a cumulative for the Sydney catchments of around 87%:
    http://www.iliveinsydney.com/water/damstats.php

    Still, more than capable of filling up if the predictions for the next week come true.

    Also, BOM has issued a severe warning a few mins ago:

    http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/warnings/severe.shtml
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  37.  
    Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture

  38.  
    Louie

    Louie Addicted Member

    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  39.  
    rugbyskier

    rugbyskier Dedicated Member

    On the basis of those figures I think that Canberra and Queanbeyan are in for serious flooding. All the dams are full and with 600mm in the upper catchment of the Molonglo and Queanbeyan rivers there's going to be a lot of water go over the Googong Dam spillway.
  40.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator

    3pm GFS run virtually unchanged from the previous few runs. Hard to see it changing now.
  41.  
    Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture

    BOM media release this afternoon souynding a little more serious also. They are talking record event now.
  42.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator

    There's talk that this will be the biggest rain event southern New South Wales has ever seen.
    The reaction has been remarkably low key (at least from a distance), given that it's been pretty clear for a few days that there was big trouble afoot.
  43.  
    PiniPowPow

    PiniPowPow Dedicated Member

    I'm meant to be driving through Cooma tomorrow and flying out of Canberra, could be interesting.
  44.  
    Undies

    Undies Part of the Furniture Season Pass Holder

    Yep, it seems to have been outsung by all sorts of other headlines the last few days, but it could be worth the media making a bit of a hoo-har about it soon.

    [​IMG]
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  45.  
    Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator

    and so it begins..
  46.  
    Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture

    In the next week i guarantee we will see idiots on the tv news saying "it just came out of nowhere" or "it happened so fast we didn't have time to prepare".

    It's ok that joe average living in suburban Sydney doesn't know anything about the weather but quite often its farmers saying they were caught by surpirse. These people's livelihoods depend on the weather so they have no excuse for not knowing and no excuse if they get caught out.
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  47.  
    dawooduck

    dawooduck Old And Crusty

    IMHO the Murray system with the slow feed down the Darling is going to flush a hell of a lot of water out to Goolwa
  48.  
    Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture

    There was already 1.5-2GL heading into Menindee Lakes from the last flood. this one will probably be more like 3GL. Then we have more water coming from the current setup. Menindee Lakes were full before any of the recent stuff started.

    They should be letting every irrigator along the Murray and Darling system fill every storage they have. Would be good compensation from all the years they went without water and the river would still get a huge flush - and has already had a big flush over the last two years.
  49.  
    Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture

    Latest GFS is out. I was going to say that the totals had backed off but then i realised lots of gauging sites in the ACT snowies region already had 50mm odd today. Still showing big numbers.

    Going by recent forecasts we may even get some action in Dubbo. Poor buggers in Nyngan could be wiped off the map - similar to the 1990 flood.
  50.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator

    Doesn't look any better this morning. If anything, the deluge is now right on the outskirts of Sydney now.