North America's 2016-2017 season. (USA/Canada)

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Born2ski, Aug 12, 2016.

  1.  
    jeffx@stormwise

    jeffx@stormwise Active Member

    So much more to it than just trof's and lpa's.
     
    :thumbs: Jellybeans1000 likes this.
  2.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    The problem is most people need a degree in meteorology to fully understand it. Not that I have a degree...
     
  3.  
    jeffx@stormwise

    jeffx@stormwise Active Member

    Check the JMA dam run jellybeans all the hallmarks of a likely ice storm in the mix. And look @ dam off the east coast day 10 wow. And yeah you get your head around the picture i notice.

    Cant post graphic unfortunately severs slow, being unkind.
     
  4.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    There's your lee-side troughing surprise. How much did Bozeman itself receive? UW suggests only a few mm, but one could assume it may not have been collecting much @ -6C. Going on google maps Bridger will collect a lot orographically.
     
    :thumbs: neck_deep likes this.
  5.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    In layman's terms for this weekend.
    [​IMG]
    Damn it looks cold by Tues/Wednesday from The Rockies to mid-west.
     
    :thumbs: neck_deep likes this.
  6.  
    jeffx@stormwise

    jeffx@stormwise Active Member

    http://fltwx.db.erau.edu/get_loop2.php?&cnt=27&delay=80&dir=model_erau/NAM/FDTEMP/US/

    http://fltwx.db.erau.edu/aviationfcst.php
    Add.
     
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  7.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

  8.  
    neck_deep

    neck_deep Active Member

    Bozeman must have hadv5cm plus throughout the day. Bridger admittedly would have been loaded to the nines with the nw wind but they must have had 30cm as it was easily waist deep.
     
    :thumbs: POW_hungry likes this.
  9.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    Happy to post it for you.
    [​IMG]
    Wow what a storm ready to be whipped up. Wait for the mesoscale forecasts to show us the practicalities of this, me thinks.
     
    :thumbs: jeffx@stormwise likes this.
  10.  
    Wardy

    Wardy Active Member

    Jackson and Targhee like
     
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  11.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    8/9thDEC system still looking large for coastal BC. It's of tropical origins and bears a good moisture feed.
    GFS & EC both suggest it intensifies offshore giving it some chance of cold air advection.
    Whistler looking to receive +80cm out of this one.
    Pac NW resorts in the 50-90cm range.

    IMO, snow from Thursday night (8th) through to Monday 12th (but potentially right through into late next week).
     
    Last edited: Dec 5, 2016
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  12.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    [​IMG]
    Snow in Hawaii in the last couple of days! A couple of feet on the peaks of the volcanoes.
     
  13.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    Looks like 10-30cm in Utah, Colorado and Wyoming. Will wait for mesoscale...
     
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  14.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Amazingly from the same moisture feed as the one influencing this deep low to form in the Pacific, mid-week.
     
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  15.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    :thumbs: Wardy and Chowder11 like this.
  16.  
    jeffx@stormwise

    jeffx@stormwise Active Member

    [​IMG]
    A frigid high affects all the north, and the high and cold intensifies as it drifts into the yukon
     
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  17.  
    jeffx@stormwise

    jeffx@stormwise Active Member

    The official

    Alert: Special Weather Statement issued December 04 at 6:10AM AKST until December 05 at 3:00PM AKST by NWS Fairbanks

    ...COLD WAVE HITS INTERIOR ALASKA...
    TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR ALASKA HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
    20S AND 30S BELOW THIS MORNING WITH FAIRBANKS DOWN TO 33 BELOW.
    TEMPERATURES IN FAIRBANKS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 20 TO 40
    BELOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AND POSSIBLY INTO NEXT
    WEEKEND. PATCHY ICE FOG CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEK AS WELL.
    A STRONG INVERSION HAS NOW FORMED AND WILL BECOME STRONGER THIS
    WEEK. RIDGETOPS AROUND FAIRBANKS WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE
    TEENS BELOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND THEN WARM SLIGHTLY BY
    MID-WEEK.
    THE COLD IS THE RESULT OF A COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT MOVED OVER
    THE INTERIOR LAST WEEK...COMBINED WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT
    IS NOW BUILDING OVER THE INTERIOR AND CAUSING CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT.
    THE NEW SNOW ON THE GROUND AND CLEAR SKIES ARE CAUSING ADDITIONAL
    COLD AIR TO FORM AND DRAIN INTO VALLEY LOCATIONS.
     
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  18.  
    jeffx@stormwise

    jeffx@stormwise Active Member


    [​IMG]

    You should will be able allowed to invoice powH
     
    :thumbs: POW_hungry likes this.
  19.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Ha. I'll let the moderators know.

    It should deliver some great totals. On the verge of being a bombing low now (was progged down to 948hPa late last week)
     
    Last edited: Dec 5, 2016
  20.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    I don't understand...
     
  21.  
    jeffx@stormwise

    jeffx@stormwise Active Member

    Yeah should have proof read, to many tasks open and going. What i meant was his assessment
    was invoice worthy.
     
  22.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    His is better than much of the commercial forecasters for sure.
     
  23.  
    jeffx@stormwise

    jeffx@stormwise Active Member

    agree but not better than me:)

    You also should be able to invoice sandy jelly for your good work and time on japan thread.
    models are about future snow no the past.



    For public links there is no better than, http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewall.html
    if you cant find what you need on ewall you need a labrador.
     
    :thumbs: POW_hungry likes this.
  24.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    Let's not get too self-centric ;)
    Can't make that out. I do love some of Sandy's work though.


    Great link, the typical university 'look' though.
     
  25.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Hours of fun right there!
     
    :thumbs: Jellybeans1000 likes this.
  26.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    By this time next week, West Coast resorts BC to CA, and partly Rockies resorts are progged to have large snow depth anoms (record breaking starts to the season for some, perhaps?)
    Marker below is for Garibaldi NP region, with a ~70" snow depth anomaly by next Monday.
    Solid, yet somewhat lighter, anomolies are progged for Sierra Nevada and CO, WY resorts by mid-next-week.

    EC, GFS & The Canuck all start to deviate from about 200hrs out. But GFS puts some severe cold temps across the US with a deep arctic air mass in Western US from next Thursday.
     
    Last edited: Dec 5, 2016
    :thumbs: Jellybeans1000 likes this.
  27.  
    jeffx@stormwise

    jeffx@stormwise Active Member

    [​IMG]
    EC polar vortex over hudson bay.
     
  28.  
    Born2ski

    Born2ski Part of the Furniture

    :thumbs: Wardy and POW_hungry like this.
  29.  
    FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

    Have you ridden the new Polar Peak chair? It's already open! Must be plenty of snow up there already.....
     
  30.  
    Born2ski

    Born2ski Part of the Furniture

    Give me four weeks and I'll be there. :)
     
    :thumbs: FourSquare04 likes this.
  31.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Its been a week of Alberta Clippers this week. Whistler has only picked up 10-15cm.
    I bet the snow has been, by in large, lighter and drier than it's prevailing systems.
     
    :thumbs: Chowder11 likes this.
  32.  
    luvthabumps

    luvthabumps Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    so this happened in Van today
     
  33.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Good fall. But the real surprise lies around; did it snow in downtown Seattle/Portland?
     
  34.  
    luvthabumps

    luvthabumps Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

  35.  
    luvthabumps

    luvthabumps Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    bus got stuck at the bottom of the 4th Ave hill in West Point Grey = chaos. Amazing how many people don't have winter tires yet still think they can tackle hills covered in snow
     
  36.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

  37.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    :thumbs: jeffx@stormwise likes this.
  38.  
    jeffx@stormwise

    jeffx@stormwise Active Member

    Freezing air comes down the centre of the vortex 'subsidence' after a vortex breakdown/split like a waterfall into the troposphere, A split is what is displayed on those charts.

    Fronts and trofs are important now to add moisture to the p express.
     
    Last edited: Dec 6, 2016
    :thumbs: POW_hungry likes this.
  39.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    As long as the P express doesn't overrule it's frozen business as usual!
     
  40.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    Freezing Cold from vortex + nice moisture in fronts ATM ... these are things you don't get from just looking at ENSO and gang.
     
  41.  
    Wardy

    Wardy Active Member

    So is the corollary of this warmer temps in Scandanavia and Western Europe?
     
  42.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    Yep
     
    :thumbs: Wardy likes this.
  43.  
    jeffx@stormwise

    jeffx@stormwise Active Member

    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]


    Up until now, the polar vortex has been weak and fluid with PV splits positioning favourably for Arctic air delivery into Europe and even the UK. This has in turn slowed the mean trans Atlantic westerly flow between United States and Ireland such that a mean high pressure system has been positioned near Iceland since mid-October, resulting in little Atlantic influence.
     
    :thumbs: Wardy likes this.
  44.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    So it's only going to get worst for Europe...
     
  45.  
    jeffx@stormwise

    jeffx@stormwise Active Member

    The models are indicating a strengthening polar vortex and regrouping near the pole which would favour stronger westerlies and zonal flow into europe.

    There's indication that with the strengthening PV comes a neutral or positive AO but above normal heights over or near greenland indicates a -NAO. So there's a great deal of confliction.
    Leave any further posting to you guys. Concentrating on euro weather.
     
  46.  
    oldgeezer

    oldgeezer Active Member

    Is this because of the story in news.com.au about Artic temps being 22C above average this winter.
     
  47.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    In general terms, for the PACNW over the next 48 hours:
    [​IMG]
     
  48.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    [​IMG]
    Mesoscale looks Tasty for next 3 days.
     
  49.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    [​IMG]
    Time to put 15-17 December on the watch list, looks big. What comes after that front is even better, but give it a few more runs.
     
  50.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    GFS is about the only one going for this scenario, closely followed by CFS. It has some uphill battles against the Arctic High over the Yukon.
    EC puts PacNW on notice around 18-20th date range.
    But it's wide open after mid-next week IMO. I think all models will clear the cache, so to speak, after the system make landfall this weekend.
     
    Last edited: Dec 7, 2016