North America's 2016-2017 season. (USA/Canada)

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Born2ski, Aug 12, 2016.

  1.  
    luvthabumps

    luvthabumps Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Forecast in Van is for snow next Wed (maybe Thursday)
     
  2.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    With no agreement on the models anything could happen at +144hrs out...
    GFS back on board with cold air advection over the PacNW, suggesting snow for places like Van, Seattle etc. as early as Monday morning - albeit light. The thing to highlight here is there's no substantial alignment until the tail end of next weekend IMO - even then it's crystal ball stuff.
     
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2016
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  3.  
    G0Z

    G0Z Just Registered

    [​IMG]
     
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  4.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    Interesting you say that, most other weather folk I have met have said the opposite.
     
  5.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    All the models are universal on that air mass ATM.
     
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  6.  
    G0Z

    G0Z Just Registered

    Yeah they are picking up on the 10mb strat anom layer filtering down to the trop.
     
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  7.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Yep, but swinging run to run. Needs time in order to be a little more assuring IMO.
     
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  8.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    CFS is a medium to long range forecasting tool. It is what is.
    Not saying discount it but in the context of forecasting 1-5 days there's more specific modelling than CFS IMO.
     
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  9.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    I was talking about ensembles in general, not CFS which is poor performing in short term.
     
  10.  
    Chowder11

    Chowder11 Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Latest models has it getting really really really cold.
    Sea level snow in Vancouver/Seattle next week.
    Eastern rockies resorts going to get to -15 whilst snowing. Thats pretty rare for this time of the year to get that cold with moisture.
     
  11.  
    G0Z

    G0Z Just Registered

    Double dose hit in one week by both the polar vortex siberian express.
    .
     
  12.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    It's winter! If that can really make the base bigger, I will have some great action in Aspen.
     
  13.  
    G0Z

    G0Z Just Registered

    There should be plenty of snow over next 10 days, to lay down the tracks for the polar express.
     
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  14.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Sunday AM to midday, all models agree; going super-cold real-quick. BUT super dry proceeding the front.
    16th?! "locked in"? really? too far out, I reckon.
     
  15.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    I think they are kidding.
     
  16.  
    G0Z

    G0Z Just Registered

    GFS shows the current system clears out into the atlantic this weekend only to be followed by another storm only this time, after dumping heavy snow in the rockies and northern plains, the true arctic air will be behind the cold front.

    [​IMG] widespread sub zeros next week

    [​IMG]

    Following polar air will should hang,its not a quick moving frontal storm.
     
    Last edited: Dec 1, 2016
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  17.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    You are going on the best available data, so no need to report.
     
  18.  
    Chowder11

    Chowder11 Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    These are some seriously cold temps.
     
  19.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    They sure are.
    They were progged around this date range (7-12 DEC) last week but looked a little more hit/miss/ambitious back then.
    Signals of arctic outbreak seem prolonged after the 6/7th DEC. Just look at the temp anoms!!
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  20.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    IMO, next major snow event for BC and Pac NW is on the 8/9th. 50-90cm falls in this period are likely IMO.

    (location spot reading above is for around Whistler)
     
    Last edited: Dec 1, 2016
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  21.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    [​IMG]
    8/9 December looks great for some heavy falls in lots of places.
     
  22.  
    luvthabumps

    luvthabumps Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    <Sigh> ...... so I'll have to deal with another massive pow weekend again before I come home for a couple of weeks of summer......... :D
     
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  23.  
    Born2ski

    Born2ski Part of the Furniture

    Even this weekend (2-4 Dec) is looking pretty good for some BC resorts. Fernie forecast to get 38cm Friday through Sunday and based on the last couple of storms they often receive more than forecast.

    http://www.snow-forecast.com/resorts/Fernie/6day/top
     
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  24.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    [​IMG]
    Doesn't look bad for snow in the next 3 days @Born2ski
     
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  25.  
    G0Z

    G0Z Just Registered

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Yes its @(336hrs)and yeah looks even colder,something to look out for.Cheers.
     
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  26.  
    Chowder11

    Chowder11 Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Yes, expecting a good 30-40cm across most of the internal rockies resorts this weekend into next week.
    Look at those temps also, talking real proper pow snow.
    Your not going to ever get better quality snow than what will fall.
     
  27.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    [​IMG]
    Mesoscale likes 7/8 December event. Pretty good for snow... :skier:
     
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  28.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Oh for sure. The limiting factors here is pressure (only really gets down to ~1016hPa) and steady onshore westerly flow (shadowing for Canadian Rockies).
    I think some resorts will do better than others, but maybe a foot or so over the 3-4 days.
     
  29.  
    Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo

    So this is 5th to 9th December. Not a huge amount of moisture, but good for some falls along PNW and into the lower states.

     
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  30.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    It's a bombing low in the Pacific. I see it as more of a system to favour the coastal resorts.
     
  31.  
    neck_deep

    neck_deep Active Member

    Anyone got any thoughts for the Montana area? Was snowing up higher this morning but still looking pretty scarce. Predictions out here are oh so New to me at the moment.
     
  32.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Montana benefits from the formation of lee-side troughing over the state this weekend (Sun/Mon). It may surprise. Probably 10-15cm in it for places like Big Sky, northern resorts should see more. Then the next system on the 10th should get things going IMO.
     
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  33.  
    neck_deep

    neck_deep Active Member

    Thanks for the heads up. Many things to learn about the weather over here. On the plus side she's been puking on and off in Bozeman all Arvo. Bb should be sick tomorrow!
     
  34.  
    neck_deep

    neck_deep Active Member

    Predicting and Recording in inches dosent help for optimism either. Bloody imperial system!
     
  35.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    Google make it so much easier though + a bit of knowledge.
     
  36.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    It is easy to understand the NA Weather after a while. Also would love some pics!
     
  37.  
    Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo

    Yeah, moisture models concur. California resorts reporting low temps and a chance of snow. So I'm hoping to see something in the gauge during this period.
     
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  38.  
    neck_deep

    neck_deep Active Member

    I can't really help with knowledge over the next 3 months but I'll make up for it in pics. Promise!
     
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  39.  
    neck_deep

    neck_deep Active Member

    Pacific Northwest seems more similar to aus but this far east seems quite different. I guess that's the problem with all those extra mountains Steeling the Freshies!
     
  40.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    Yeah the PNW does pick up more moisture than Montana, but the air is much cooler inland, resulting in brilliant powder. It tends to come in lots of small falls, rather than the dumps received on the coast.
     
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  41.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    I guess most people know and often use the big global models GFS, EC, GEM, UKMO, etc for predicting snow for North America. But lots of people don't use mesoscale models. IMHO within a 5 day range, these are the charts to check. Mesoscale charts are charts that use a higher resolution than the big global models. This allows a chance to see more localised falls and smaller systems, where global models are good at looking at the bigger picture. Here's my guide to make sure you don't use the wrong one.


    US Models
    http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2016120100&fh=0&r=conus&dpdt=
    NAM North American Mesoscale Model
    This is the standard mesoscale chart used by many news weather meterologists and parts of the General public. It is good within 3 days, terrible beyond that. Some meterologists say this chart has poor accuracy, despite its higher resolution. Use caution with this one!

    http://graphical.weather.gov/
    NDFD National Digital Forecast Database
    This has got heaps of graphical forecasts and is used for NWS forecasts. The benefit of this is it uses internal NOAA data and data from the big global models. So this is the model using the data from all the other models.

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/
    SPC Storm Prediction Center
    This model uses NOAA data to predict severe weather. Good if you want to know when a blizzard is due.

    http://wrf.nssl.noaa.gov/
    WRF Weather Research Forecast Model
    This is another general mesoscale model using a variety of NOAA data. This is often considered to be better than NAM and is my personal choice for forecasting snow.

    https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/
    RAP Rapid Refresh
    This is a very short scale model, only going back 6 hours. It predicts the rain radar and is good for knowing when it is going to snow during that day.

    http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/
    HRRR High Resolution Rapid Refresh
    A Higher Resolution version of RAP

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/
    SREF Short Range Forecast Ensemble
    Says it in the name, it's an ensemble of forecasts similar to both SPC and NAM forecasts.

    http://meteocentre.com/models/model...n&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest
    HIRESW (also known as HRW-ARW) High Resolution Window Forecast System
    This is the mesoscale model from the NCEP using NOAA data and the WRF Model.

    Canadian Models (I know less about these)
    http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?lang=en&mod=gemreg
    RDPS Regional Deterministic Prediction System
    This is the main mesoscale model from the CMC.
    http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?lang=en&mod=cmc_hrdps
    HRDPS High Resolution Deterministic Prediction System
    This is a higher resolution version of the RDPS.

    All these have maximum ranges of 6 hours to 7 days. They are best considered within 5 days of the event, and are most accurate within 3 days of the event. These are great tools if used with global models. As I said at the start, things like the polar vortex, massive cold fronts, arctic nodes, etc should be observed from a global model, but mesoscale models are great for looking at smaller sections of land, smaller storms, localised falls of snow, etc. Some of you might use these tools, but this is just a handy list of most of the NA mesoscale models.

    Correct me if I am wrong. Spelling mistake or fact error guaranteed somewhere ;)
     
  42.  
    neck_deep

    neck_deep Active Member

    Thats why I'm here just a bit harder to know when it coming. Except when snowing, like now. Maybe 5cm in Bozeman since this Arvo.
     
  43.  
    luvthabumps

    luvthabumps Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Forecast was calling for 20-30 cm overnight and during the day today (Friday) for Whistler. Have been awake since ridiculous o clock today (about 2.30am and no idea why) and it's been raining steadily (Vancouver 6C) Heading up after lunch.
     
  44.  
    Wardy

    Wardy Active Member

    Outstanding thank you
     
  45.  
    Wardy

    Wardy Active Member

    From the excellent Wayne Flann: 'A warm front in a Westerly flow will bring light precipitation to the area today with a FL which may rise to 1400 Meters. A cold front will follow later in the day with the FL dropping to about 1000 Meters by tonight. We may see some breaks tonight before another cold front moves through the area, with light snowfall and a descending FL on Saturday. This cold upper level trough of low pressure and associated cold front will bring the FL down to sea level by early Sunday morning. Looking cold Sunday through Wednesday. Hopefully we will see a shift by Wednesday night with more snow!!
    Guesstimates 8-12 cm by Saturday morning, 10-15 cm by Sunday morning.'
     
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  46.  
    neck_deep

    neck_deep Active Member

    Reportedly 12 "inches" overnight for the Bridger range. Can confirm I would have said I was in Japan if the terrain wasent so littered with cliffs! I'll try and post pics when I find the laptop. even the weather advisory was out by over 400%
     
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  47.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    Wowsers!
    I would suggest following NDFD (above) and GFS charts and just follow the 850hPa Temp chart. The colder it is, the more snow you get. Couple that with precipitation charts and you will be fine.
     
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  48.  
    jeffx@stormwise

    jeffx@stormwise Active Member


    [​IMG]



    [​IMG]




    [​IMG]


    Kinda cool when these guys are seeing that same pattern even if a little late.:)
     
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  49.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    Cold is Gold
     
  50.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    [​IMG]
    Looks like the vortex is going moving towards NA in the later parts of the forecast
     
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