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Discussion in 'Weather' started by Born2ski, Aug 12, 2016.
Forecast in Van is for snow next Wed (maybe Thursday)
With no agreement on the models anything could happen at +144hrs out...
GFS back on board with cold air advection over the PacNW, suggesting snow for places like Van, Seattle etc. as early as Monday morning - albeit light. The thing to highlight here is there's no substantial alignment until the tail end of next weekend IMO - even then it's crystal ball stuff.
Interesting you say that, most other weather folk I have met have said the opposite.
All the models are universal on that air mass ATM.
Yeah they are picking up on the 10mb strat anom layer filtering down to the trop.
Yep, but swinging run to run. Needs time in order to be a little more assuring IMO.
CFS is a medium to long range forecasting tool. It is what is.
Not saying discount it but in the context of forecasting 1-5 days there's more specific modelling than CFS IMO.
I was talking about ensembles in general, not CFS which is poor performing in short term.
Latest models has it getting really really really cold.
Sea level snow in Vancouver/Seattle next week.
Eastern rockies resorts going to get to -15 whilst snowing. Thats pretty rare for this time of the year to get that cold with moisture.
Double dose hit in one week by both the polar vortex siberian express.
It's winter! If that can really make the base bigger, I will have some great action in Aspen.
There should be plenty of snow over next 10 days, to lay down the tracks for the polar express.
Sunday AM to midday, all models agree; going super-cold real-quick. BUT super dry proceeding the front.
16th?! "locked in"? really? too far out, I reckon.
I think they are kidding.
GFS shows the current system clears out into the atlantic this weekend only to be followed by another storm only this time, after dumping heavy snow in the rockies and northern plains, the true arctic air will be behind the cold front.
widespread sub zeros next week
Following polar air will should hang,its not a quick moving frontal storm.
You are going on the best available data, so no need to report.
These are some seriously cold temps.
They sure are.
They were progged around this date range (7-12 DEC) last week but looked a little more hit/miss/ambitious back then.
Signals of arctic outbreak seem prolonged after the 6/7th DEC. Just look at the temp anoms!!
IMO, next major snow event for BC and Pac NW is on the 8/9th. 50-90cm falls in this period are likely IMO.
(location spot reading above is for around Whistler)
8/9 December looks great for some heavy falls in lots of places.
<Sigh> ...... so I'll have to deal with another massive pow weekend again before I come home for a couple of weeks of summer.........
Even this weekend (2-4 Dec) is looking pretty good for some BC resorts. Fernie forecast to get 38cm Friday through Sunday and based on the last couple of storms they often receive more than forecast.
Doesn't look bad for snow in the next 3 days @Born2ski
Yes its @(336hrs)and yeah looks even colder,something to look out for.Cheers.
Yes, expecting a good 30-40cm across most of the internal rockies resorts this weekend into next week.
Look at those temps also, talking real proper pow snow.
Your not going to ever get better quality snow than what will fall.
Mesoscale likes 7/8 December event. Pretty good for snow...
Oh for sure. The limiting factors here is pressure (only really gets down to ~1016hPa) and steady onshore westerly flow (shadowing for Canadian Rockies).
I think some resorts will do better than others, but maybe a foot or so over the 3-4 days.
So this is 5th to 9th December. Not a huge amount of moisture, but good for some falls along PNW and into the lower states.
It's a bombing low in the Pacific. I see it as more of a system to favour the coastal resorts.
Anyone got any thoughts for the Montana area? Was snowing up higher this morning but still looking pretty scarce. Predictions out here are oh so New to me at the moment.
Montana benefits from the formation of lee-side troughing over the state this weekend (Sun/Mon). It may surprise. Probably 10-15cm in it for places like Big Sky, northern resorts should see more. Then the next system on the 10th should get things going IMO.
Thanks for the heads up. Many things to learn about the weather over here. On the plus side she's been puking on and off in Bozeman all Arvo. Bb should be sick tomorrow!
Predicting and Recording in inches dosent help for optimism either. Bloody imperial system!
Google make it so much easier though + a bit of knowledge.
It is easy to understand the NA Weather after a while. Also would love some pics!
Yeah, moisture models concur. California resorts reporting low temps and a chance of snow. So I'm hoping to see something in the gauge during this period.
I can't really help with knowledge over the next 3 months but I'll make up for it in pics. Promise!
Pacific Northwest seems more similar to aus but this far east seems quite different. I guess that's the problem with all those extra mountains Steeling the Freshies!
Yeah the PNW does pick up more moisture than Montana, but the air is much cooler inland, resulting in brilliant powder. It tends to come in lots of small falls, rather than the dumps received on the coast.
I guess most people know and often use the big global models GFS, EC, GEM, UKMO, etc for predicting snow for North America. But lots of people don't use mesoscale models. IMHO within a 5 day range, these are the charts to check. Mesoscale charts are charts that use a higher resolution than the big global models. This allows a chance to see more localised falls and smaller systems, where global models are good at looking at the bigger picture. Here's my guide to make sure you don't use the wrong one.
NAM North American Mesoscale Model
This is the standard mesoscale chart used by many news weather meterologists and parts of the General public. It is good within 3 days, terrible beyond that. Some meterologists say this chart has poor accuracy, despite its higher resolution. Use caution with this one!
NDFD National Digital Forecast Database
This has got heaps of graphical forecasts and is used for NWS forecasts. The benefit of this is it uses internal NOAA data and data from the big global models. So this is the model using the data from all the other models.
SPC Storm Prediction Center
This model uses NOAA data to predict severe weather. Good if you want to know when a blizzard is due.
WRF Weather Research Forecast Model
This is another general mesoscale model using a variety of NOAA data. This is often considered to be better than NAM and is my personal choice for forecasting snow.
RAP Rapid Refresh
This is a very short scale model, only going back 6 hours. It predicts the rain radar and is good for knowing when it is going to snow during that day.
HRRR High Resolution Rapid Refresh
A Higher Resolution version of RAP
SREF Short Range Forecast Ensemble
Says it in the name, it's an ensemble of forecasts similar to both SPC and NAM forecasts.
HIRESW (also known as HRW-ARW) High Resolution Window Forecast System
This is the mesoscale model from the NCEP using NOAA data and the WRF Model.
Canadian Models (I know less about these)
RDPS Regional Deterministic Prediction System
This is the main mesoscale model from the CMC.
HRDPS High Resolution Deterministic Prediction System
This is a higher resolution version of the RDPS.
All these have maximum ranges of 6 hours to 7 days. They are best considered within 5 days of the event, and are most accurate within 3 days of the event. These are great tools if used with global models. As I said at the start, things like the polar vortex, massive cold fronts, arctic nodes, etc should be observed from a global model, but mesoscale models are great for looking at smaller sections of land, smaller storms, localised falls of snow, etc. Some of you might use these tools, but this is just a handy list of most of the NA mesoscale models.
Correct me if I am wrong. Spelling mistake or fact error guaranteed somewhere
Thats why I'm here just a bit harder to know when it coming. Except when snowing, like now. Maybe 5cm in Bozeman since this Arvo.
Forecast was calling for 20-30 cm overnight and during the day today (Friday) for Whistler. Have been awake since ridiculous o clock today (about 2.30am and no idea why) and it's been raining steadily (Vancouver 6C) Heading up after lunch.
Outstanding thank you
From the excellent Wayne Flann: 'A warm front in a Westerly flow will bring light precipitation to the area today with a FL which may rise to 1400 Meters. A cold front will follow later in the day with the FL dropping to about 1000 Meters by tonight. We may see some breaks tonight before another cold front moves through the area, with light snowfall and a descending FL on Saturday. This cold upper level trough of low pressure and associated cold front will bring the FL down to sea level by early Sunday morning. Looking cold Sunday through Wednesday. Hopefully we will see a shift by Wednesday night with more snow!!
Guesstimates 8-12 cm by Saturday morning, 10-15 cm by Sunday morning.'
Reportedly 12 "inches" overnight for the Bridger range. Can confirm I would have said I was in Japan if the terrain wasent so littered with cliffs! I'll try and post pics when I find the laptop. even the weather advisory was out by over 400%
I would suggest following NDFD (above) and GFS charts and just follow the 850hPa Temp chart. The colder it is, the more snow you get. Couple that with precipitation charts and you will be fine.
Kinda cool when these guys are seeing that same pattern even if a little late.
Cold is Gold
Looks like the vortex is going moving towards NA in the later parts of the forecast