North America's 2016-2017 season. (USA/Canada)

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Born2ski, Aug 12, 2016.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    Yeah, California has suffered badly through drought for at least the last 2 seasons (years) but it does look marginally better now that they're out of El Nino influence.
     
  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    9/10th looks even colder! 1976 repeat perhaps?
     
  3. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    [​IMG]
    Everyone's getting love :D
     
  4. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Tokyo, then San Fransisco... that's a great way to fix the 2016 effect.
     
  5. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    EC looking a chance for snow close to San Fran 8/9 December, at least on the control run.
    Widespread snow chance, could be the dump that kicks Colorado, California, Oregon, Utah into full winter mode...
     
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  6. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    [​IMG]
    Good vibe for the 13/14th too for California.
     
  7. Born2ski

    Born2ski Part of the Furniture

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    Kirkwood really is pretty isolated, without a car you're stuck there. Also be aware that while Kirkwood is great after fresh snow when it starts to warm up, like it does in March, Kirkwood's snow turns to glue very quickly because there's very little tree cover. We spent 2 months in Tahoe (Feb/March) and I found when it warms up the trees at Heavenly keep the snow in better condition than Kirkwood.
     
  8. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    [​IMG]
    Some nice estimates for Tahoe...
    [​IMG]
    Similar for Aspen...
     
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  9. oldgeezer

    oldgeezer Active Member

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    I'll be watching more closely mid February for how Colorado is looking, and BC early March. So far the long range outlook for Feb is looking like it might be a tad marginal everywhere by then. Normally one can't place too much credence on long range outlooks but for the local season just finished the BOM outlook in autumn for the winter was not far off the mark so they can be pretty close. Shall see what comes.
     
  10. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo
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    5 inches and still falling at Northstar. I'm there in 5 weeks. :woohoo:

    [​IMG]
     
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  11. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    Steady onshore flow of moisture has plenty more in the tank, too.
     
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  12. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    Couple of inches in the last 3 hours for Jackson. Sporadically, very heavy falls.
     
  13. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    I love how there is no cars are there to put tracks into the fresh snow on the road :D
     
  14. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    I love how they have flashing red signals rather than sequences at 3am in the morning. gives me the irrits here in Aus.
     
  15. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Yeah that's weird
     
  16. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    13 inches in Tahoe overnight alone. CFS flat-out wrong here.
    This is the problem with using ensembles for short range forecasting (particularly snow/precip)... it's an aggregate, rather than a reliable single plot for a specific locale.
     
    #166 POW_hungry, Nov 28, 2016
    Last edited: Nov 28, 2016
  17. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    13 Inches overnight that's pretty nice
     
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  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    ...And Mammoth just reported this!
    "DUMP ALERT! It's a full on pow day with 14-32" of new snow overnight and it's still dumping this morning. Get up here and get some Sunday slashes in."
     
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  19. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    Mammoth always get a lot of snow, I think their average is 400" annual but their season just goes and goes forever
     
  20. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Dump after Dump after Dump... etc
     
  21. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    Yep and they often get BIG dumps of 20-30" of Sierra's finest cement :D
     
  22. Arne

    Arne Active Member

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    And then the wind blows Lincoln Mtn and the upper Mtn to buff.
     
  23. Born2ski

    Born2ski Part of the Furniture

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  24. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Addicted Member
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    Yep, El Nino got them really bad for about 3-4 years straight. Same when most of California was in a severe drought.

    Appears the shift away for El Nino the past year has and will continue to improve the conditions along that whole Serra Nevada range
     
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  25. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    Yeah the El Nino years hurt Californian resorts big time

    Without having a chance to check the details, have a look at 2006-2007 records I think it was when "Wooly" was half covered, that year was MEGA
     
  26. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    05/06 if I recall correctly was a ball-tearer of a season (I remember it well because I was suffering in Whistler with one of the worst starts to a season in living memory). Super late season but big.
    http://mammothsnowman.com/mammoth-mountain-snowfall-history/
    [​IMG]
     
    #176 POW_hungry, Nov 28, 2016
    Last edited: Nov 28, 2016
  27. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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  28. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    Not sure how reliable this chart is but it shows nearly 40% of the season snowfall was received in MAR/APR for the '05/'06 season.
    [​IMG]

    Plus... Always love seeing this sign snowed in. Still blows me away, errytime.
    [​IMG] [​IMG]
     
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  29. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Addicted Member
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    Something big brewing for next week potentially for the Canadian Rockies and PNW (Washington state and BC).

    Has been spoken about already I believe, but it is looking cold and snowy.
     
  30. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    Very much so. Both GFS & EC agree on a LARGE cold Arctic Outbreak for the West Coast and Rockies. Triple shot of cold air 7th-13th Dec.
    Haven't looked to much at the models today but will revisit tonight. Looking very exciting.
     
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  31. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Addicted Member
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    Is a tad early to lock in, but low level and large accumulation.

    Looking good for the Banff, Eastern rockies area, which is where my interest really lies for this season (be there in Feb).
    They have had a pretty good start, but need a few decent low level falls before Xmas, because it can really dry up Jan-Mar.
     
  32. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    [​IMG]
    Add GEM to the party... nice cold front on there for the 6/7 December
     
  33. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    3 inches at Snowmass/Aspen. Saw the snow on NFL.
     
  34. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    @Chowder11
     
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  35. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Addicted Member
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  36. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Downgrade for 6-8 December on GFS.
     
  37. G0Z

    G0Z Just Registered

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    Really don't think you will see anything spectatur across the continent re: Artic - air intrusion until maybe mid-Dec.
     
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  38. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Big things from the charts at their first forecast, and then a couple of downgrades.
    All over the place from the forecasts for AO.
    [​IMG]
     
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  39. G0Z

    G0Z Just Registered

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    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]

    Big change in the blocking ridge lifting out ,with polar air injection mid-DEC widespread..
     
  40. G0Z

    G0Z Just Registered

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    Agree POW current setup with back to back (waves, trofs) rolling in from the epac.


    [​IMG]
    sigma 3 with amon with no polar air injection.



    [​IMG]
    Garden variety trof really.
     
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  41. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    Still a chance of fruitation with this one. EC likes it a bit more than GFS.

    [​IMG]
    Dumpage for BC on the 14th , possibly downgrades on the way...
     
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  42. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    A big shift and divergence in the models (GFS/EC) for the first week now. GFS paints the second week of December to look very active for Central US (540 well south of TX panhandle) for the 9th Dec. EC is a little more conservative, but still there nonetheless.
    Still such a long way out though.

    I do agree the second week looks to kick winter into it's second phase with a more malleable 4 node set-up around the North Pole. The 3-nodal arrangement isn't doing the winter enthusiasts any favours at the moment.
     
  43. G0Z

    G0Z Just Registered

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    Line1 current pattern @48hrs, then a big change blocking high sets up inthe Wpac up and the canucks freeze.
    [​IMG]



    [​IMG]
    Forcing @144.
     
  44. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Yeah definitely. Wait for several weeks to reap the rewards. Also welcome!
     
  45. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    18" reported for Jackson Hole overnight. Announced it's opening this Thursday (...without me!!:cry:).
     
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  46. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    7" of the white powder stuff at Steamboat overnight....
     
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  47. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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  48. G0Z

    G0Z Just Registered

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    Above plot depicting a shift in the polar vortex,is what everyone is waiting for.

    [​IMG]
     
  49. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    Sure is, but that behemoth high 'aint gonna do much favours for the Pacific Decadal Oscillation cooling trend (in the NE) of the last few months.
     
  50. G0Z

    G0Z Just Registered

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    [​IMG]
    GFS vortex forced outta shape, depicting extreme cold.
     
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