North America's 2016-2017 season. (USA/Canada)

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Born2ski, Aug 12, 2016.

  1. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    Sunshine Village opening day today / tomorrow our time in Banff. Looking good at the Banff resorts actually but they do tend to do quite well with early snowfalls, it's when they typically receive most of their snow and sets them up for their 6 month season.
     
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  2. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Addicted Member
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    Sunshine up in the bowl helps for their early snowpack also.
    If you look at Lake Louise 35mins down the road it is only skiable from about mid mountain.

    but your right, because of the continuous below zero temps from pretty much now until April, there is little to zero meltage and its just keep piling up every fall.
     
  3. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    It does but because the snow is SO dry there it compacts a lot more and if high winds come through it just gets blown away. Overall they don't get as much as say Revie, Fernie, Whistler but obviously much less chance of rain in Banff too. Gotta weigh up the pro's and con's :)

    Personally, I'd rather take the punt for BIG dumps at Fernie, Kicking Horse, Revvie or Whistler than the bitterly cold temps of Banff, having said that I'd go back to any of them in a heartbeat :D
     
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  4. skidiva

    skidiva Well-Known Member

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  5. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Addicted Member
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    True.
    But when you get a 30cm fall at LL or Sunshine and a bluebird day, there is nothing better.
    But your right, it does get cold, really really cold.

    Those views though.
     
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  6. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Addicted Member
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    Going to be some serious base up high this year.
    Temps will drop over the next month and the valley will start filling in.

    But the top bowls will be skiing excellent from opening day.
     
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  7. Chillybin

    Chillybin Active Member

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    Sunshine are world leaders when it comes to farming snow though. They make a small amount go a long way. Definitely helps that their actual skiable terrain is basically my d mountain and above though
     
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  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    Major models going for a moderate cold outbreak for NE US this weekend. not a moist system but looks like it marks the change in seasons.
    GFS & EC like an even-bigger cold outbreak for end of next week. Mid-west to East coast.
     
  9. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    Anyone lucky enough to experience Sunshine opening day?

    On another note, saw some pics of Kicking Horse the other day which looked more like mid January, they must have had a crap load of early snow there. I imagine Revelstoke would be similar conditions potentially even better.....
     
  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    Here comes winter to much of the US this week. A Cold outbreak in the form of an old-fashioned Alberta Clipper due to hit the Rockies on Friday, carrying right through to the East Coast. Won't be a significant snow-bearing system but the shortwave system has good cold air advection - a snowmakers heaven for any resort Rockies to The Great Lakes.


     
    #60 POW_hungry, Nov 13, 2016
    Last edited: Nov 13, 2016
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  11. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    Looks like Canada got hit with some promising cold weather then got a warm spell.

    Lake Louise in Banff not looking too flash for early November that's for sure......

    [​IMG]
     
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  12. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Addicted Member
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    Already pushed their opening back due to the unseasonal warmth which melted all the front side snow.

    Up top and the back bowls still look ok though.
    Forecast suggests there is much colder temps and snow below valley floor level on the way over the next week.
    This time next week the mountain will be looking much healthier.
     
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  13. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    Pretty scary that if it's that warm in Banff, which is typically a lot colder than BC, it must be pretty warm right now in the Rockies and interior BC resorts......looking like a slow start now for Canadian resorts unless they get absolutely smashed in December with big storms, which isn't unheard of.....
     
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  14. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Addicted Member
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    Yep they rely on the base building dumps November into december.
    As typically Jan - Early March goes dry and cold, but any base hangs around due to the consistent well below 0 temps.

    Im there mid Feb so plenty of time yet, but keeping a keen eye out anyway.
     
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  15. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    I just did a big upload of charts, so enjoy...

    Current conditions: quite warm in Canadian rockies
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    This Tuesday 15th to Wednesday 16th Temps 850mb and Surface: Getting much cooler as storm comes through.

    [​IMG] [​IMG]

    [​IMG] [​IMG]

    500mb hPa for all major charts, showcasing the storm that should give some nice snow to at least 1200m in the Canadian Rockies.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
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    In summary, this storm that is due from 15th to 16th of November should reverse the recent hot weather. This should give 10-25cm to the Canadian Rockies and the Rockies in Montana and Idaho.
     
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  16. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    [​IMG]
    Ensemble of 18 Nov- Should be much colder in the Sierra Nevada and the Rockies.
     
  17. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    [​IMG]
    This week...
    [​IMG]
    November totals, would expect to be not too accurate but okay...
    [​IMG]
    To end of year, a bit of hopecasting in there with the snowfall count.
    My personal opinion is average in the Rockies, California. Above average in East Coast. Maybe a tiny bit below average in Colorado and Utah, especially to the south.
     
    #67 Jellybeans1000, Nov 15, 2016
    Last edited: Nov 15, 2016
  18. absentskier

    absentskier Part of the Furniture
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    Personally, I don't pay any attention to anything more than a few weeks out.
     
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  19. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Fair enough.
     
  20. Born2ski

    Born2ski Part of the Furniture

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    Snow all the way to the base of Red Mountain (Canada) overnight.

    The base of Red is at 1185m. Temps look colder later this week. :thumbs:

    [​IMG]
     
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  21. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    Snow for much of the Pac NW, BC resorts over the last 10-12 hours. Only the preface to the cold air that's due from the Rockies to to the East coast US over the next 72 hours.
    As I mentioned last week, it's more about the cold dry air than snowfall totals with this one IMO.
     
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  22. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Snowmaker's heaven
     
  23. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Addicted Member
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    Alberta resorts looking much healthier this morning.
    Another 20-30cm in the forecast, with real cold temps.
     
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  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    Lake Louise looks beautiful this arvo.
    As far as the NW resorts go this system will clear the way for a series of shortwave systems over the next week, Sat through Thurs next week will see substantial gains for Pac NW resorts, Canadian Rockies included. I see 3 major systems from Sat-Thurs.
    Whistler opens next Thursday, just in time.
     
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  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    Un, dos, tres...
     
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  26. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Addicted Member
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    Good temps also.
    Should be able to make snow all they way through
     
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  27. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    GFS has +85mm progged for Van between the next 4-10 days. Freeze levels will fluctuate but will mean snow above 1400m for the most part.
     
  28. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Addicted Member
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    Temps look to be turning and dropping snow to the East coast this weekend also.

    Noticed in the forecast snow forecast for Toronto this weekend.

    Looks like winter has arrived for Nt America
     
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  29. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    And Chicago.:thumbs:
    Cold and dry.
     
  30. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    EC snow predictions (both Ensemble and Deterministic) for Squamish (Not far from Whistler) and Revelstoke. Nice figures for both...
     
  31. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    SDS Setting in? Throw this on in the background. My favourite YouTube Live channel when it's sub-zero in Jackson Hole. It seems the storm has reached the big teat (Grand Tetons), proper.
     
    #81 POW_hungry, Nov 17, 2016
    Last edited: Nov 17, 2016
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  32. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    Great totals across Pac NW resorts. 10-12 inches to resorts such as Baker & Mt Hood, moisture due to taper off as it passes the Rockies.

     
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  33. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Brilliant to see some snow falling (Brilliant Cam). Whistler and other resorts in the area should be good for opening day, with a bit of manmade snow too.
     
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  34. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Maybe some nice falls from next system on 23-25 Nov. Again over Canadian Rockies/Pacific Northwest and California in there too.
    [​IMG]
     
  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    West Coast will do significantly well over the next week, chiefly BC & OR resorts above 5k feet IMO.
    Saturday eve (AUS time), then Wednesday, then Friday. I shouldn't think the major BC resorts will have a problem opening in the next fortnight IMO.
     
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  36. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    About 3 inches across the 4 Aspen Resorts, Breck and most of the Colorado resorts today. Aspen opens next Tuesday Australian time... but I doubt they would open much if anything. They have only a bit of base on the top of Snowmass and Aspen. Similar with other Colorado resorts I expect. I think the best early season ski will be in the BC Rockies and Pacific Northwest IMHO, until mid December when Colorado really gets rocking.

     
  37. absentskier

    absentskier Part of the Furniture
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    Almost up to 11 inches up top at Steamboat now.

    [​IMG]
     
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  38. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Update from Aspen site says 11 inches on top of Snowmass, confirmed by local friend of mine.
     
  39. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    This might take a while to load...
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    26-29 Nov BC: 600m, better further inland California: 1500m, Better in North. Colorado: 1500m
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
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    [​IMG]
    30th Nov-4th Dec 2 lots of precipitation BC: 200m except on coast California: 1000m on Range Colorado: 1000/1100m
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
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    [​IMG]

    9th-13th Dec BC: 200m except on coast California: 1600/1700m Colorado: 1500-1700m

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    14th-17th Dec BC: 200m except at coast California: 1400m north, 1600-1700m further south Colorado: 1400/1500m

    Mid-December will bring endless negative temperatures above 500m or so in BC Rockies. Looking great for there and Pacific Northwest going forward with no problem furfiling their opening days. Not so great for California and Colorado. Can't say I expect a massive base in Aspen when I go in early-mid January
     
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  40. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    [​IMG]
    [​IMG] [​IMG] [​IMG]
    EC and GFS predictions for Colorado (Steamboat and Aspen)
     
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  41. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    The Arctic Oscillation shows if the nodes are close to the North Pole or further away... We want them further away from the pole to reach the Rockies and other Mountain Ranges, which means it's in a negative stage. Once it's proper negative, places like BC Rockies will still below freezing for much of the time.
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_mrf.shtml GFS AO
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml GEFS AO
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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  42. AnotherSnowDude

    AnotherSnowDude Just Registered

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    Wow some charts @Jellybeans1000 Can you or one of the others explain ideal conditions for snow in Canada and US? I have loved the weather tutorial about Japan by @Sandy and hoped for similar for North America.
     
  43. MarkV

    MarkV Active Member
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  44. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Addicted Member
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  45. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    To state the obvious, it's a big couple of countries. Want to maybe narrow/specify your query a little?

    If there's one thing to learn about snow forecasting in the Americas is it's shear size and sense of scale. Winter weather is very much influenced by the large scale topography.
     
  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    There is clear alignment between EC & GFS that Tuesday & Thursday (this week) will be the money-shot for snow in the Pac Norwest & BC Coastal resorts. There is, however, big divergence beyond Friday.
    The start of next week is the next slice of action, but again there is no solid agreement in the models as yet. GFS says Sunday for a big Pac Norwest system whilst EC puts it inbound on Monday and not nearly as strong.
     
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  47. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    [​IMG]
    With a very simple explanation and terrible drawing.
    Purple arrows are moisture rich cold air coming onto the shore and hit the higher ground. Due to the orographic effect, heaps of snow falls on the Ranges along the West Coast in places like the Sierra Nevada and the Pacific Northwest but the snow is wet, due to the closeness to the coast.

    Orange Arrows is the dry air that crosses the Great Basin and plains to the main Rockies, where the air is much more colder than on the coast and a bit of moisture as the air lifts a bit, brings some dry snow, not in the quantities than on the coast. This covers US. You need locals experience which I lack, to get more resort specific...
     
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  48. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    Minus Alaska, East Coast and Mid-East, Arizona, New Mexico... etc.
     
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  49. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Yep... This is just for where the vast majority of Aussie skiers go.
     
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  50. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Should you find yourself in US East Coast, here's a little info in the form of a crap drawing.
    [​IMG]
    Firstly the low below Nova Scotia, provides nice northernly winds from the colder north. These, shown as red arrows going around the low, provide a nice snow opportunity for most resorts in New England and New York and maybe Pennyslvania too. These lows sometimes go further south, giving snow further south and if the low goes close to the coast enough, it may snow in places like Boston, NYC and Philadelphia.

    Looking west, is a low that has crossed the Rockies and now affects the Mid West providing snow often to the whole state. Below it, stretching down to the Gulf of Mexico, is a trough (with the green arrow) with cold air and some moisture. With a bit of the orographic effect, this brings snow to places like Virginia and Pennsylvania. Again, locals knowledge counts here and the trough over the Mid West can also go east and affect New England and lots of other situations that could affect the Eastern part of the US. Now I have covered Appalachian Mountains and the Rockies, leaving Alaska.
     
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