North America's 2016-2017 season. (USA/Canada)

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Born2ski, Aug 12, 2016.

  1. The Baron

    The Baron Active Member

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    Hi all , have noticed warmer temps forecast for next week in BC. We will be in Revelstoke and Big White. Is there any chance of the forecast improving. Thanks
     
  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    It's a risky system due in the next coupla days, it's a big ole mid-winter pineapple but I think BW/Revelstoke BC will do ok. Coastal resorts will suffer a bit before Thursday eve when the cooler air arrives.
    Next Thursday is ages away but I see that one presenting similar outcomes.
     
  3. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    So an update on the North American situation. An MJO Phase 8 is currently forecast to be fairly strong on several models. An MJO Phase 8 may introduce troughing on the East Coast and high pressure on the West Coast.

    GEFS shows an entrance to Phase 8 and an extreme weakening during Phase 8.

    EPS shows a less extreme weakening, starting in Phase 8 and completing in Phase 1.
    This guidance is for beyond the 12th of Feb.

    BOM POAMA, JMA and UKMO suggest a strong Phase 8 and weakening in Phase 1/2.
    This assessment is based on RMM index, GEFS OLR maps don't show such a strong Phase 8 MJO.

    Some words from Judah Cohen
    So possibly less snow for the Rockies.
     
  4. jgm

    jgm Active Member

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    No skiing today. Tahoe is shut! Well you could have paid US$159 (134 for old farts) for a couple of lifts on the lower mountain, but that's just about it. High winds everywhere, and the snow has been bucketing down here at Heavenly for the past couple of hours. So far the snow is still heavy wet Sierra cement. Fingers crossed for tomorrow.
     
  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    Interesting... A wind storm (perhaps the same one??) has also crippled resorts in ID & WY.
    Jackson Hole is closed until further noticed after high voltage lines were brought down. HERE.
     
  6. moist1

    moist1 Active Member

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    But what does all this mean Jelly bean?
    How do things look for Revelstoke from the 15th please!!
     
  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    Looks like a pineapple on the 15/16th followed by frequent snow top ups after that.
    My honest opinion? US & Canada resorts (west) are with 1-2 weeks of their season peak, I think.
    Some big blocking patterns at the moment with a weakening polar vortex, and some poor jetstreams - compared to last month.
     
    #657 POW_hungry, Feb 12, 2017
    Last edited: Feb 12, 2017
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  8. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Western US poor, Eastern US great. At least for the next week or so.
     
  9. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    And in the east...
     
  10. asammut_au

    asammut_au Active Member

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  11. neck_deep

    neck_deep Active Member

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    Speaking of Jackson just made a diversion of sorts on the way to Salt lake now the weather has cleared and everything is back on deck. Icy as in town but hopefully up top hasent suffered to much from the last 2 days of blue bird. Weather and condition reports to come but with in excess of 30inchs since the lifts last spun it could be a bit of fun.
     
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  12. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    Thanks for sharing.
    A resort has paid a big price for not having power redundancies. This could have been much worse if it had happened during lift ops hours. Fatalities may have been likely had this been the case.
    I suspect state and local council have intervened here with having Lower Valley Energy re-instate the power in 4 days. 26 Power poles in 4 days? Into frozen land... That's a huge effort.
     
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  13. neck_deep

    neck_deep Active Member

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    Jackson running at full steam today. Waiting in line at 720 and still only made 3rd tram. Either way got some nice hike to lines but the snow was weird. A bit upside down and sun effected by 1130. Either way a great way to end a USA mission. Touring tomorrow should be epic on north facing slopes.
     
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  14. Wardy

    Wardy Active Member

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    Be careful out there
     
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  15. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    Next Tuesday/Wednesday sees another cold core low hitting PNW & Coastal BC. Whistler and the likes should see 15-20" or so out of it.
    [​IMG]
     
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  16. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    Deepening Low is looking like it will wreak havoc on the East Coast over the 25/26FEB.
    [​IMG]
     
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  17. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    Wowzers - hectic East Coast USA conditions next week!
     
  18. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Has been dumping at the East Coast all week and forecast into the next week or so. Related to Phase 8/1 MJO.
     
  19. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    I am unconvinced. MJO influences monsoonal regions, these are cold core systems with Arctic origins - the correlation negligible IMO.
     
  20. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Climatology for Phase 8 MJO in February. Notice big juicy low centered on Eastern USA.
    [​IMG]
    This is the current situation. Lows centered on Alaska and Eastern USA. High over Europe, contrary to Climatology though.

    [​IMG]
     
    #670 Jellybeans1000, Feb 16, 2017
    Last edited: Feb 16, 2017
  21. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    And why do you think there is a correlation between the MJO and the 'juicy low' you're referring to?
     
  23. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    This is when all the other factors come into play. MJO causes blocking in the Western US and the jetstream speeds up and hits the North Eastern USA. This could be the effect of the -AO.
    [​IMG]

    But moving on...
    Later in the week, the jetstream dumps into California. And causes widespread rainfall and snowfall in the Sierras too. And a fair bit of the Oroville catchment too.
    [​IMG]
     
  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    Perhaps you are suggesting the same thing, but a strong MJO during phase 8/1 correlates to colder, drier conditions in Jan, Feb, Mar (JFM) as below, hence why I think the recent snowfalls on the East Coast aren't correlating to the current MJO wave but more influenced by the -AO, at-least as far as the East Coast US goes:
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
    REF: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#composite
    [​IMG]
     
    #674 POW_hungry, Feb 17, 2017
    Last edited: Feb 17, 2017
  25. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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  26. Mctavish

    Mctavish Active Member

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    Fresh tracks @ Banff resorts today with snow forecast to continue all week. Looking good in the Rockies.
     
  27. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    Hopefully it's not too cold so you actually get a decent dump not just 1cm or 2cm each day
     
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  28. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Addicted Member
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    Be there Tuesday, looks like some nice timing for the Chowders
     
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  29. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Atmospheric river is going to give California and the Sierras a hammering.
     
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  30. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    Plenty of rain below 2200m. Mammoth looks like it'll do well. Tahoe will be a wash out... Resorts up high might be spared in Tahoe though.
     
  31. PiedPiper

    PiedPiper Active Member

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    Looks like i picked the right year for a few late late season days @ mammoth!
    May is still a long way off, lets hope it stops co
    ming by then else it might all be rain :(
     
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  32. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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  33. Mctavish

    Mctavish Active Member

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    It's cold and the promised goods haven't arrived - just as you said with a few cm of super dry here and there - nice for fresh corduroy and a little play out back but no deep fresh stashes ATM.
     
  34. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    @Mctavish it needs to be warmer than -15 for a decent dump to fall. They typically get good dumps during March in Banff when funnily enough it starts to warm up (which isn't far away now) ;)
     
  35. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    Looks like Fernie was getting some more late season love with 35cm in 12 hours
     
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  36. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Addicted Member
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    Fizz here in Banff and surrounding resorts.
    Initial forecast was for 20cm.
    Think Sunshine ended up with 5cm and LL with 2cm.
    Here in Banff we would have had 1cm max.

    Didn't get any fresh this year, but the clear weather has been good.

    Here's hoping for a few Spring falls over East Coast now I can chase.
     
  37. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    Not surprising, Fernie can do really well from these sporadic / isolated falls. Fernie Snow Valley just seems to suck it all in and the Grizz delivers the goods more often than not :D
     
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  38. neck_deep

    neck_deep Active Member

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    Unfortunately i left Montana a week or so ago and the infamous Bridger bowl cloud finally arrived dropping 6 feet of blower! Ah well maybe next time. Ha ha
     
  39. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    Big Sky?
     
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  40. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    Fernie copped a nice late season dump, would have been locals and seasonal blow ins only to enjoy it - lucky ducks

    Over 1m in the last week :eek:
     
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  41. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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  42. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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  43. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    Looks like another late season burst for BC and AL resorts at the moment
     
  44. jwx

    jwx Active Member

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    Looks to be just the timing was spot on with the mjo over the W-hem.

    A little late bu....t
    So there is no confusion POW is correct this low came off the continent and bombed.
    It was not the classic low that sweeps in from the Atlantic with a negative tilt.
    The low was not spawned by the enriched moisture but it did get boosted.
    .
     
    #694 jwx, Mar 16, 2017
    Last edited: Mar 16, 2017
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  45. nfip

    nfip Addicted Member
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    Yes it came out of the South which suprised me.
    My Daughter is in Baltimore , so I have been weather watching a little out of general interest , rather than snow biz.
    She has had last 2 days off school ..."snow days ".
    Has been some carnage up and adjacent the Eastern seaboard.
    More to come this weekend tho not quite as far South as Stella.
     
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  46. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    My twitter feed contains 90% stuff about Stella in the past three days.
     
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  47. Wardy

    Wardy Active Member

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    My facebook feed is full of late winter powder runs from Revie and Kicking Horse. One day, the whole season for me... Or seasons...
     
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  48. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    While we clamber over each other for 10-15cm in the Aussie alps this weekend, spare a thought for the Sierras who stand to receive up to 36" (90cm) of new snow by this weekend... This adds to Mammoth's 170-330" current base.
    lordy lordy... #atmosphericriver
     
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  49. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    Mammoth just picked up 20-25" of fresh in the last couple days.
     
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  50. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    Unbelievable season they have had this year.

    Wonder if it will be the best ever on record?

    I saw that they are going to be open until July, which is not uncommon, but at this rate there will be snow until next season unless they get torrential rain!
     
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