North America's 2016-2017 season. (USA/Canada)

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Born2ski, Aug 12, 2016.

  1.  
    FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

    Sounds like any mountain that has a massive dump of snow on top of a decent base
     
  2.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Actually, by next weekend Cali looks to score some reprieve with a blocking pattern for at least 4-5 days from Monday 16th through to around Thursday (quite possibly some of the best bluebird, groomer skiing of the season if GFS & EC get their way).

    Beyond this GFS, CFS & EC all paint a very stubborn zonal-flow for much of the West Coast for mid/Late Jan. Looks persistent for frequent frontal top-ups IMO. All without the bitterly cold Alberta clipper systems we saw throughout DEC.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

     
    Last edited: Jan 8, 2017
  3.  
    jeffx@stormwise

    jeffx@stormwise Active Member

    Here's two other links i find very useful jelly,along with mos charts when trying to figure a forecast out.
    http://www.image.ucar.edu/wrfdart/ensemble/index.php
    https://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/semaine2_combinee_e.html

    I give weight to a thaw out period after this current event ,then in 10-12 days another polar surge.
     
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  4.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

  5.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold


    Or HERE if the above doesn't load.
     
  6.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    NAM 3km has embedded trough bringing resupply of colder air & moisture (snow) by 5-7pm local time tomorrow.This is in-line with EC's prog.

     
  7.  
    jeffx@stormwise

    jeffx@stormwise Active Member

  8.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    Pretty cloudy in Snowmass today, it should snow later...
     
  9.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    [​IMG]
    There's this nice low that looks to hit the inland Rockies. Could be snow in Utah, Wyoming, Colorado, Montana, Idaho, Interior BC and Alberta. Meanwhile the Sierra Nevada and most of the PNW is mostly dry due to a blocking high.
     
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  10.  
    Born2ski

    Born2ski Part of the Furniture

    Light snow in Fernie this morning. Hopefully more coming in tonight and tomorrow.
     
  11.  
    Ralph_implement

    Ralph_implement Addicted Member

    Same here. Will be welcome.
     
    :thumbs: Wardy likes this.
  12.  
    FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

    That sounds about right for January, especially when it gets really cold it only snows very lightly
     
  13.  
    jeffx@stormwise

    jeffx@stormwise Active Member

    Heights don't really start lowering until another 18/24hrs. Then shit will hit the fan.
     
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  14.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Heavy snow returns to Mammoth top to bottom, as of an hour ago (7-7:30pm local).
     
  15.  
    neck_deep

    neck_deep Active Member

    Consistent rain
    in driggs down the bottom of grand targe all evening If it's cold enough up there then tomorrow is gonna be deep! Fingers crossed!
     
  16.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

  17.  
    Chowder11

    Chowder11 Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Cali drought over.
    Good news
     
  18.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Well technically we won't know that officially until Thursday (or as early as tomorrow) as it's reviewed and published every Tuesday AM and Thursday AM respectively.
    http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
    I suspect parts of So-Cal will remain in 'extreme drought' as not much was received south of Sequoia NP.
     
  19.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    An off-grid Colorado snow recorder seeing things people choose to ignore.
     
  20.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Dump'n in Jackson, WY. 18" in the last 48 hours. Up to 21" expected in the next 24hrs.

    Pretty much sums their season up (to-date).
     
    Last edited: Jan 11, 2017
  21.  
    Froff Life

    Froff Life Dedicated Member Season Pass Gold

    Whistler back country this morning
     
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  22.  
    Stiffler

    Stiffler Active Member

    Great save by the jetforce! Very lucky bugger!
     
  23.  
    Ralph_implement

    Ralph_implement Addicted Member

    Very lucky indeed!
     
  24.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator Season Pass Gold

  25.  
    kaegee

    kaegee Dedicated Member Season Pass Gold

    Wows. Pic from Kirkwood
     
  26.  
    FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

    Anyone got storm totals for Tahoe / Mammoth yet or is it still puking there?
     
  27.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    They've literally been getting back-to-back systems so not really able to call it storm totals anymore... 28" in the last 24 hrs has been reported, but I guess that's just a piss in the ocean for other falls this month...
     
  28.  
    pedub

    pedub Active Member

    That could not have gone any better.....
     
  29.  
    Born2skii

    Born2skii Member

  30.  
    Born2skii

    Born2skii Member

    @Jellybeans1000 , @POW_hungry any details on the event hitting the PNW this week ? Weather news up here are calling it a major event and have said there is an "atmospheric river" coming all the way from the Philippines. :eek:
     
  31.  
    Stiffler

    Stiffler Active Member

    Hmm seems like a big pineapple for anywhere under about 1500m at this stage....
     
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  32.  
    FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

    Sounds about the right time of year for a big pineapple express to come through
     
  33.  
    Born2skii

    Born2skii Member

    Well I'm sitting at just under 1200m here in Red Mountain BC Canada and forecasts I've seen suggest either all snow (albeit wet) or only a little rain and the rest snow. I guess time will tell.
     
  34.  
    Stiffler

    Stiffler Active Member

    Fingers crossed!
     
  35.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    16-20 Jan looks tasty as.
    [​IMG]
    That's 50-70 inches for Whistler area (127-177cm)
    15-30 inches (40-75cm) for inland Rockies

    As for the "atmospheric river" which is the jetstream, it stretches all around the globe, being the division of Ferrel and Polar cells.
    [​IMG]
    As you can see the jetstream is pushing into BC/PNW for this next storm. But then it plunges into California.
    [​IMG]
    And then it moves further north and curves over the Sierra Nevada from the NW
    And then long term a blocking high comes in.
     
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  36.  
    blowfin

    blowfin Active Member

    Should be safe that far inland, it does look pretty warm though. Either way, i'd say head straight for the "slides" and then rinse the Motherlode char line on a fresh morning :thumbs:
     
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  37.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Red will do fine. Temps only really look marginal on Wednesday AM/during the day for you, but snow/rain mix fluctuating between 1300-1500m, ~10-15mm of rain IMO. Should see 15-20cm between Tues-Thurs though.
    'aint looking pretty for coastal resorts below 1800m, until at least Thursday when the cold air arrives IMO.
     
    Last edited: Jan 16, 2017
  38.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Proof that CA, is on the way to breaking all-time records.
    To go from 'Exceptional Drought' covering 30% of the state to virtually the wettest season on record in a matter of weeks is pretty phenomenal. @FourSquare04 this put your earlier remarks on the '06 season, into perspective.:thumbs:
     
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  39.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    I was in Southern California (Los Angeles) a couple of days ago. Locals said they had never seen so much rain. It just happened to bucket down when we went to Universal Studios :mad: No California sun for me

    It does look like the jetstream will stay in its current pattern for the next couple of weeks, keeping California wet. Should do some filling of local dams.
     
  40.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    Wow! I didn't know it had bucketed down that much. Some serious water storage required on the part of California authorities.
     
  41.  
    Chowder11

    Chowder11 Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Tahoe resorts gonna get it again.
    Not quite what they just had but looking at another 1m of snow atleast.

    Crazy
     
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  42.  
    FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

    I wonder if those smaller So Cal hills are also getting it or are they too low, like Bear, Mt High, etc

    A quick scan around looks like they have around 1m base where as Mammoth has 6m base at the Summit!!!
     
  43.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Nah San Bernadino Ranges too low, too south to be included in the depths that Sierra Nevada are receiving. They need COLD, WET winters to benefit. Looks like 2017 has only been able to deliver the moisture component to-date.

    That said, those resorts are experts at making snow. They never usually need a lot to spin a lift. Bit like an Aussie resort really...
     
    Last edited: Jan 17, 2017 at 2:34 PM
  44.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Pac NorWest is currently filling in with heavy moisture inbound from the SW. Rain and mixed precip is the theme for most resorts at the moment. Cold air due tomorrow AM.
     
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  45.  
    Born2skii

    Born2skii Member

    Finally snowing here at Red Mountain. Outside temp sitting on around -3c at the base, just under 1200m altitude.
     
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  46.  
    Rowdy1

    Rowdy1 Active Member

    Snowing at Silver Star for the last couple of hours
     
  47.  
    vibe++

    vibe++ Well-Known Member Season Pass Silver

    Same here at Big White
     
  48.  
    Ralph_implement

    Ralph_implement Addicted Member

    Total fizzer at SP.
     
  49.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    West of the Rockies is where it's been marginal.
    ~1500m FL for coastal resorts is still mild for JAN, it's the PNW (US) that were always going to struggle here. Due to shadowing; Rockies were never going to see big depth gain, or rain for that matter IMO.
     
    Last edited: Jan 18, 2017 at 6:54 PM
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  50.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Sierra Nevada resorts really are the place to be this winter.
    Friday AM (Local) sees a new WNW cold core system roll through California 15-20" (30-50cm) possible, all over by Saturday PM local.

    Follow-up system on Sunday AM local is shaping up to be a beast, atmospheric avalanche if you willLOL. Deep, cold and arctic air-mass is associated with this one.
    35-45" (80-120cm) are possible in 48 hours for places like Shasta, Mammoth and to a lesser extent Tahoe. Uppers are very cold (-3C/-14C/-34C), snow possible in strange places if GFS pans out.
    UT, CO & WY all to significantly benefit from this system from Monday AM also.
     
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