Predictions May 26-30th System

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Claude Cat, May 19, 2016.

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  1. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    BoM

    Thursday 26 May
    Cloudy. High (70%) chance of rain. Snow falling above 1500 metres. Winds northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h turning west to southwesterly in the late morning and early afternoon.

    Chance of snow
    40% at 1800m
    0% at 1400m
    0% at 1000m

    Friday 27 May
    Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower in the west, near zero chance elsewhere. Snow possible above 1200 metres. Winds westerly 25 to 35 km/h.

    Chance of snow
    40% at 1800m
    30% at 1400m
    Below 5% at 1000m

    Saturday 28 May
    Cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers, most likely in the morning. Snow possible above 1200 metres. Winds west to northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h tending west to southwesterly during the morning.

    Chance of snow
    60% at 1800m
    50% at 1400m
    10% at 1000m
     
  2. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    conservative on their moisture IMO
     
  3. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
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    Still can't see enough moisture to be a good fall.
     
  4. chriscross

    chriscross Dedicated Member
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    BOM for where? ACT? NSW?
     
  5. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    I
    It sort of depends on what happens. From past experience it can either go either 10 cm or 75 cm. Its just that sort of cold pool. I am going for more though.
     
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  6. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
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    Hope you're on the money.
     
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  7. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    BOM 4 day looking good at this point but still a few days off....wait for another day at least before getting too excited IMO.
     
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  8. SnowBound

    SnowBound Dedicated Member

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    @Donza CTs should see snow with those cheeky wandering cold pools correct?

    Lithgow had a pretty significant dump I remember last season from one of these cold pools yet literally over the hill had nothing. Correct me if I'm wrong.
     
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  9. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Yup
     
  10. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    [​IMG]
    10-11 oclock on this chart(will update). Plenty of juice and not much standing in it's way. Uppers arent particularly cold though, although i'm not really concerned whether we see 10 or 30cms+ out of this one, it's still May.
     
  11. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    Snowies
     
  12. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Every model has a different scenario

    this ones up in the air (touche) folks
    enjoy
    latest spag is bonkers cut off.
     
  13. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

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    Winter is most definitely knocking on the door , -1 at 7.10 pm in my machinery shed , Tumbarumba area.
     
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  14. jungfrau

    jungfrau Active Member

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    My prediction is 4cm for every page of this thread.. how quickly the vibe has changed
     
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  15. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    I do like the EC update this evening
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    I can see 20 to 30cm (NSW will do better I think c/o that low in the Tasman).
    The trouble is that the models are still wobbling around a fair bit, so it's far from definite.
     
  16. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    I agree re EC
    Tasmania effect will come into play if those isobars are too straight.
    pressure is nice and low....
    you'd think..being may that the tot tots would be mid to late 50's
    looking at the bends in those isobars, you'd also expect some decent shear....as verm alluded to earlier that can promote low level snow falls.
     
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  17. Snorkler

    Snorkler Part of the Furniture

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    I predict gas over the weekend :fart:
     
  18. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon Active Member

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    It might be May but the last great season we had IMO was set up by a late May snowfall 2000Not saying this system is going to be anything like it but 20 or 30 cm and tons of snowmaking could set it up.
     
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  19. chriscross

    chriscross Dedicated Member
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    Thanks, DSNS. There are these other mountains to the south. Hoping for pre-winter goodness all round.
     
  20. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    Jeepers you're not wrong.
     
  21. winter

    winter Well-Known Member
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    My fellow work colleagues could not handle 30mins outside today, Southern Highlands,NSW . Snow is on the way .. my prediction based on this. 10cm tomorrow
     
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  22. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    needs a few more vodkas.
     
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  23. AJS

    AJS Well-Known Member

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    FINALLY a chill in the air in Syd tonight (and quite a cutting one at that), predicting an appreciated turn of weather based on that and some anecdotal chat from some friends currently up at Thredbo.
     
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  24. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon Active Member

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    EC all good ATM snow for 4 days
     
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  25. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    *perisher
    surely AJS needs to turn to the snowy side
     
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  26. iagreewithhim

    iagreewithhim Well-Known Member

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    Well your Thursday front gave Perth a fair whack as it came through last night; as did the previous one on Saturday. Plenty rain and plenty cold. I do like the way those fronts are lining up, and I like the fact that they are well to the north for this time of year. We can only hope that it continues.
     
  27. tele-whippet

    tele-whippet beard stroker
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    NSW BOM, possibility of snow above 1200 M NSW CT's Saturday
     
    #227 tele-whippet, May 25, 2016
    Last edited: May 25, 2016
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  28. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Be interesting to see what happens and where.
    The old formula moisture & temps.

     
  29. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    Above average SST's in the southern tasman coming into play with the low set to 'bomb' once that colder air hits the warm water.....at least the system looks to turn into one big, mean mother and should suck some colder air up with that nice hook effect potentially kicking in towards Saturday.....plus potential for more follow ups with the high pressure belt broken down & weaker than usual?
    [​IMG]
     
  30. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    Just had a look at the latest EC run - currently showing that High to get 'squashed' and move in a SE direction setting up a blocking effect which will inhibit follow ups, but we shall see what the 00UTC run gives us later today.....
     
  31. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    Yah but I feel the highs arent really that strong, so a decent system could push them around.
     
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  32. SnowBound

    SnowBound Dedicated Member

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    Heading up Saturday night. Any chance of some falls around then?
     
  33. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Thats prob when.
     
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  34. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    Even if that H parks itself for a day or two and we don't get a follow up I'm thinking that the cold air sucked up by that deepening Tasman low is gonna allow for bulk snowmaking for an extended period?
    Not exactly season starter type stuff but will go a long way to resorts having ridable snow on opening weekend.
     
  35. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    Not a bad point. At this stage, the best result would be 30cms of natural, half of which would melt in the first day or 2, then a run of snowmaking to get those areas cooled and with enough cover to get up and running by opening weekend. Then at least you have a base to work on. You cant underestimate the importance of a solid base to set up your season, even in years where we've had decent snowfall (cumulative) the season can eat dicks because it's always falling on no base.
     
  36. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture
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    Last nights GFS charts were showing best chance of skiing on Saturday at Mt Canobolas. Looks different again this morning though. May have to take the skis to Sydney.
     
  37. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    IMO EC has it cold enough, but perhaps lacking in moisture.
    GFS is perhaps a bit more moist.

    [​IMG]
     
  38. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Addicted Member
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    Suggesting 50mm for metro Melbourne???
     
  39. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    The latest run is, but looking at the previous runs I'd say 25+mm for the 4 days is not unreasonable.
     
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  40. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Addicted Member
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    Good drop.
    Looks like Ill be in the car for the rest of the week though. Dont do commutes in the rain
     
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  41. Edgecrusher

    Edgecrusher Pool Room
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    Yeah Bom says similar: A range of between 9 to 28mm forecast over the 4 day period. Good to see some 14 and 15C days in the forecast period too. Freeze level lowering to 1200m by Thursday arvo.
     
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  42. beard07

    beard07 Active Member

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    I can tell you it's been raining all morning in Adelaide and the temps haven't got above 12 yet, it's cold and wet here!
     
  43. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon Active Member

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    Yes the radar looks good movong across nicely a bit warm in the mountains
     
  44. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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  45. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon Active Member

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    Its cold in the Victorian resorts
     
  46. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Addicted Member
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    Starting to wind up outside.
    My hands are cold at my desk today, thats a sign its getting cold.
     
  47. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Exactly my thoughts.
     
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  48. Kappy

    Kappy Well-Known Member

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    Hear that. Here in Sydney office, have turned on the heater. I know its not that cold outside but we are in an old converted warehouse with very high ceilings and cement floors. Brrr but loving it!
     
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  49. CarveMan

    CarveMan aussieskier.com
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    Ditto.
     
  50. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    It looks like it may be cooler outside, in the real world, just looking out my window now. Maybe soon i'll be allowed outside.
     
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