Predictions June 4-7th June System

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Claude Cat, May 30, 2016.

  1. jungfrau

    jungfrau Active Member

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    Access G showing 150mm plus over alps Sun-Tues.
     
  2. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Time to get the fire wood in the house and brace for the storm I think.
     
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  3. TDS

    TDS Active Member

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    I was giving everyone my mountainwatch prediction....
     
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  4. woggybot

    woggybot Dedicated Member

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    Great read :D

    Oh to be around to witness that!! Would be a fascinating drive from Sydney :)
     
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  5. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Does not look Cold enough, but maybe.
     
  6. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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  7. The Fallen

    The Fallen Well-Known Member

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    Did that yesterday. Could be another Pasha Bulka style weekend with no power for 2 days and cooking on the Slow Combustion
     
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  8. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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  9. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Maybe 10. LOL
     
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  10. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    IMO I see little but rain for Saturday and Sunday.
    If you watch the cold pool transition on Monday, you can see it's probably too far to the north to help

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]


    I wouldn't be surprised to see snow in the high parts around Bathurst (Monday afternoon) though.
    IMO
     
  11. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Thats is some serious COLD air injection.

    BOM access G is not seeing that.

    BOM Access G is a bit more deterministic and a I bet GFS is working off the ensembles. I am going all in with the ensembles.

    [​IMG]
     
  12. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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  13. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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  14. loweee

    loweee Dedicated Member

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    apparently spag looks better this afternoon. Dont know how to post it though
     
  15. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    No, there's only one GFS.
    But there are 4 runs per day.
    There's only 2 publicly available EC runs, Access, dunno. Perhaps 2 as well?
     
  16. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    I was thinking it had upgraded. Its gone all funny now. Can post later.
     
  17. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    So what is James McGregor using to plot this? Cheers

    [​IMG]
     
  18. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Looks entirely consistent as elsewhere
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    And consistent with the T TB GFS plot you had above.
     
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  19. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
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  20. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    EC isn't quite the same as GFS - two lows instead of one
    Cold pool is a little different.

    [​IMG]
     
  21. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
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    I can't work out how to post a pic. I suppose at 60 something years old that's understandable. Still love my weather and have done for 60 years.
     
  22. rocketboy

    rocketboy Dedicated Member
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    really easy - see that row of 3 buttons beneath the reply box - the middle one next to post reply - says "upload a file" press that and navigate to the dir where the pix is you want to upload. best to avoid massive images - I scale down to 1000 pixels wide or such.
     
  23. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo
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    He's not a paying member. Doesn't get upload.
     
  24. rocketboy

    rocketboy Dedicated Member
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    Duh ... - pay up or the kitty cat gets it.
     
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  25. rocketboy

    rocketboy Dedicated Member
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    Looks like yr.no has updated and it sure ain't no season starter.
     
  26. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    1. Right click on image or synoptic chart that you are looking in your browser, than select "Copy image address".
    2. Go into post reply in ski com and click on mountain picture to the right of the smile face in the tool box above the message.
    3. Right click on image URL and select paste, hit enter and your away.
    [​IMG]
     
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  27. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo
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    4th to 7th.

    My opinion.

    4th Chance of Snow. Rain developing.
    5th Looks Wet
    6th Snow forming.
    7th Rain developing.

    Confidence of snow on ground post front. Low.

    [​IMG]
     
  28. dawooduck

    dawooduck Pool Room
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    That porridge slop skied lovely. #1 son and I had a hoot of a day skiing PB smooth gloop mountain.
     
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  29. loweee

    loweee Dedicated Member

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    doesnt look too bad above 1700m for perisher on the back end.
     
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  30. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
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    Didn't know about any " Payed Membership "
     
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  31. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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  32. Adelaidometer

    Adelaidometer Active Member

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    Stay on topic please;):p

    Yr no. Showing 30cm. They are well overdue to get it right:confused:
     
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  33. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Perhaps a possibility on Monday. Cold pool a little better positioned on this morning's run.

    [​IMG]

    Interesting how GFS always looks like the previous nights EC run (see above)
     
  34. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    EC this morning for same period + 12 hours

    [​IMG]
     
  35. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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  36. Nowada

    Nowada Well-Known Member

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    Wet snow at 2000+m for this system. All man made washed away at resort levels IMO. Has not changed much in last 24 hours.
     
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  37. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    If we can get close to that then peaks will be set for the season. I expect more than 150mm. so if we can get 50 cm of snot. That would be net gain from perspective.

    But it looks like if will be mostly be rain. Follow up from Monday looks good onward.
     
    #187 7wombathead, Jun 3, 2016
    Last edited: Jun 3, 2016
  38. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Thats a big flood event for Bega.
     
  39. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    EC seems to further develop the cool pool at 96 hrs.

    [​IMG]
     
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  40. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Take totals with grain of salt; I'd expect it to be more distributed than that.
     
  41. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage
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    Tuross Falls will be worth a photo after that. I don't think the drive along the Deua will be much fun.
     
  42. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    8 day totals from the BOM (so this includes the following event)

    [​IMG]
     
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  43. 1000m

    1000m Active Member

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    Copped 40 - 80cm around Crookwell last July. In town the snow was knee deep, as you headed out to Laggan & Roslyn it got deeper. The carnage of broken trees from snow loads is still visible from Oberon to Bathurst to here.
    If the cold air pool is over here again then it may happen again. Tho last July the moisture feed came off the coast and headed up from Batemans Bay. Started at 4pm in the arvo and went till about 4am the next morning. The next 2 days were very cold so the snow froze and lasted a few weeks. Most of the houses in town needed their guttering replaced.
     
  44. 1000m

    1000m Active Member

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  45. CarveMan

    CarveMan aussieskier.com
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    My dad has just had a hip replacement a couple of days ago and he was going to go to our place at Wonboyn to recover as there are no stairs. Might be a bit soggy.
     
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  46. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    QLD is going to get hit too.

    [​IMG]
     
  47. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    Good to see East Gippsland will get their share, missed out on the May rains.
     
  48. Born2ski

    Born2ski Part of the Furniture

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  49. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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  50. SnowBound

    SnowBound Dedicated Member

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    can you imagine if the cold pool sat right over the alps in time for all that moisture....wow