Predictions June 4-7th June System

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Claude Cat, May 30, 2016.

  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    A fairly weak system, not that cold will come though this weekend IMO
    Has potential to deliver snow above 2000m initially, lowering to perhaps 1600m later.

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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  2. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Interestingly GFS shows bugger all for the same period apart from ECLs.
     
  3. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    I sort of realize now that the Bom Access G must be a bit GFS and EC.
     
  4. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    From what @Rush has said in the past it's close to UkMet, which is similar to EC.
     
  5. Snorkler

    Snorkler Part of the Furniture

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    What's really nice is the latitude of the High pressure systems.
     
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  6. cookieman

    cookieman Dedicated Member
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    To me that period looks just a couple of degrees too warm.
    Hopefully as we get closer to date things may improve?
     
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  7. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    ensembles say SAM is going neg around this time so might get some more penetration from frontal systems. Maybe drag some more cold air with them and continue to the transition of seasons?
     
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  8. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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  9. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    This sort of only makes sense if there are cool air uppers that may be cold enough to snow / snot.

    The cool air is what is leading to the formation of inland trough that develops in to cutoff low. Looks promising, but unique.

    You do get snow from these systems and a bit of rain. More of a snot system. Good for the Main range though.

    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]
     
    #9 7wombathead, May 30, 2016
    Last edited: May 30, 2016
  10. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    Looks peaking a little early and sliding IMO, what cold air there is won't be a direct hit. fits with CC's 1600m+ suggestion.
     
  11. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Talk about wracked Jet Stream.

    [​IMG]

    Hence, I think we will see snow coming back from east Saturday Morning, than West Sunday night
     
  12. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Yep agree, maybe even a bit higher like 1800 m. Looks more useful for main range.
     
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  13. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    The uppers don't appear to be that cold, even though the 850 levels are moderately useful. Hard to get a gauge on what level we'll see snow. IMO
     
  14. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    My interpretation is that the jet stream splitting like above (forecast), leads to the formation of a boundary layer trapping he cool pool between 30 to 45 degrees South. It is sort of cutoff between the polar and equatorial air. I am getting excited because it is getting closer to the 22 June, so there is not much to warm up the isolated air.

    Its like a Cool Pool.
     
  15. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Better on EC this afternoon IMO

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Could surprise.
    GFS still nowhere near it though
     
    #15 Claude Cat, May 30, 2016
    Last edited: May 30, 2016
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  16. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    I love how these systems just sort of develop. it makes up for the systems that look big 4 days out and just fizz (like last Saturday).
     
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  17. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    CMC/GEM is like a hybrid of GFS and EC

    [​IMG]
     
  18. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture
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    To be fair the models showed saturdays system heading north (and missing the alps) a long way out. Just looked really good on the satellite pic as it approached and we were in denial it would head north like it did - and was predicted to.
     
  19. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Yep, but four days out it looked good. But you could see the air moving north as well, but I wanted to believe something else. LOL.

    Saturday was connected to the formation of the split jet stream, which seems to persist till next Saturday. Its different IMO.
     
  20. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    That system looked a lot better 7 days out.
    The models had the intensity about right 4 days out.
    Anyway, this is getting off topic.

    This date range still has a wide divergence in the models and we're in the 144-156 hours range!
     
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  21. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    This system started off looking terrible, then just bad, then a bit of pre-frontal clear snow with a dusting afterwoods to what it is now which is 'maybe 10-15cm' in it IMO. Hopefully this trend continues.
     
  22. TDS

    TDS Active Member

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    Do a mountainwatch and predict a 50cm storm on a random day at every Australian resort..
     
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  23. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture
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    WTF is going on at weatherzone lately. Chart updates getting later and later each day. Or is a problem at the data providers end? I know there are other sources but i like their interface.
     
  24. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Suspect it's automated based on the feed from BOM/EC/GFS
     
  25. bullet

    bullet Well-Known Member

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    I just noticed the ocean forecast from seabreeze of Sunday 5th for point perpendicular, 43knot NE'r and 7m swell.

    Could that be right?
    What on those charts is causing this?
    (not snow related I know but still weather in the time frame)
     
  26. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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  27. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Thats why this whole chart is strange. A sustained NNE fetch all that way from New Caledonia to 50 S.

    This is weird to get such a large fetch 30 degrees with NNE winds in the Southern Hemisphere. Something odd is happening in the models or with the climate.

    Its hard to belive this forecast at the moment as it is really really wack, but there is evidence like the split jet stream.

    I would be issuing a Coastal Erosion Hazard warning. Its a sand transport event.

    There is something going on. Fully
     
    #27 7wombathead, May 30, 2016
    Last edited: May 30, 2016
  28. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    Im not really excited about this, at this stage.
     
  29. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    GFS slowly coming into line with EC

    [​IMG]
     
  30. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo
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    Wandering cutoff looks too warm. At resort level. Bit of liquid stuff, bit of snotty stuff. More liquid stuff. Net loss IMO.

    [​IMG]
     
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  31. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    GFS still not looking as good as EC.
    I'm kind of betting GFS tomorrow will look like EC does today, and you'll get a different picture.
    Of course EC will change one way or another too!
     
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  32. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    GFS showing that cold pool (although it's not super cold)

    [​IMG]

    Still thinking this is good for 10cm 1800m & above.
     
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  33. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    I'm still sticking with my 10-15cm call. This event looks like it will start on Friday and go through to Tuesday. Light snow above 1700m throughout this period IMO.
     
  34. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
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    I'm going for 0 at this stage. BOM maps have nothing much at all for this period and they have been very good for the last two. Hope I'm wrong but just can't see it.
     
  35. rocketboy

    rocketboy Dedicated Member
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    At Perisher/Thredbo that seemed to be the case last year for most of these moderate light systems. Only Barry really pissed down.
     
  36. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    There was definitely a lot more up high on these snow/sago/rain events.
     
  37. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    The whole period out to the 9th June looks promising, without promising snowfall kind of vibe.
     
  38. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Its kind of looking like a cutoff, but moisture may move north again though. This system might even drag the next system in behind.

    [​IMG]
     
  39. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    The low tracks north, just a bit like the last event. IMO
     
  40. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
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    BOM 7 day shows the whole system slipping Sth and a different low coming in from the Nth West. Yuk
     
  41. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    The Bom 7 Day is showing the second phase slipping South (Sunday to Monday).

    The first stage is moving east north east (Friday to Saturday)... Looks good for some high level wet snow, IMO.
     
  42. Snorkler

    Snorkler Part of the Furniture

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    As long as it keeps heading north and cooling down the air and earth to the North West, that will only help for later on and maybe when that La Nina moisture starts heading south later on, it will be pre cooled before hitting the mountains.
     
  43. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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  44. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    The 700 Hpa's temps look good for Saturday. Moisture starting to converge over south east. Very coastal after inland trough moves through on Friday. Definitely could be good for up high above 1800m. Its a bit hard to get excited about Sunday though.
     
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  45. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    GFS 00Z run has thrown a ECL into the mix.

     
  46. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    as GFS does...
     
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  47. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
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    We must be looking at different maps. Any snow this time of year is good snow.
     
  48. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve Addicted Member
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    so Saturday ....what r the odds for rainfall in Falls/Hotham to wash existing snow away...
    BOM seem to be predicting a rain event below 1800m

    2 to 15mm 70% Rain no mention of snow......????:eek:
     
  49. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Yeh, it's an event for 1800m+

    IMO
     
  50. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
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    Only area in those 3 days to have 0 at 850 is Bathurst. Not very exciting.