Predictions July 6th - 10th

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Claude Cat, Jun 30, 2017.

  1. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Still with us Friday Saturday this mornings 12z runs.
    IMO.
     
  2. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    Yep, EC bouncing back this morn
     
  3. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Not quite text book but we'll take what we can get.
    [​IMG]
     
  4. jonathanc

    jonathanc Well-Known Member

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    Thursday / Friday look cold and dry on Access-R. Can someone please post an EC chart? The MSLP / thickness / precip one?
     
  5. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Yer it is drying out , relative to last weeks long range.....
    [​IMG]

    and this the 5 day precip for this date range.
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #55 nfip, Jul 4, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 4, 2017
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  6. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Snow Thurs night into Friday.


    Snow Saturday arvo

    Light snow on Sunday.

    And a bit more snow on Monday. Then the system should clear.
     
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  7. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    Wow wtf? That's some weird shit going on there.
     
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  8. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Yeh the BOM just threw some cut-outs up in the air .....
    think it's called " this'll fk ' em " .
     
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  9. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture
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    I like the fact that we have westerlies for a week with various troughs brushing the SE corner of the mainland. These are the setups that give us the good steady falls over a week. We need a big 50cm mass at once to cover all the veg and allow further snowfalls to stick. A quick 20cm fall is almost useless at this time of year because it melts before the next fall.
     
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  10. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    Very.
    It's a meandering bunch of lazy lows, fronts, troughs with a half arrrsed high/ridge here and there.
     
  11. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture
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    You describing us bro?
     
  12. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Creative.
     
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  13. Jasper Schwarz

    Jasper Schwarz Active Member

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    Is anyone else worried that we may get r**n tomorrow/today??
     
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  14. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Yeah, but there is no natural snow cover for the rain to ruin. So apart from abysmal skiing weather, it will be okay. Anyway, it should be snowing tonight/tomorrow for Perisher/Thredbo, down to 1500m.
     
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  15. Jasper Schwarz

    Jasper Schwarz Active Member

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    True but I'm a Perisher skier and was a touched worried out season stater was going to fizzle
     
  16. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    The plan is expect it to fizz as a default.
    Then when it all comes together , as it is predicted to do (somewhat) in the next week , it's a bonus.
    ;)
     
  17. kimberlee81

    kimberlee81 Dedicated Member

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    [​IMG]
     
  18. Mister Tee on snow shoes

    Mister Tee on snow shoes Dedicated Member

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    Show me the snow !!!!!!
     
  19. Mister Tee on snow shoes

    Mister Tee on snow shoes Dedicated Member

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    You are not allowed to mention the "R" word on this forum!!
     
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  20. jungfrau

    jungfrau Active Member

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    Yr suggesting 5-10 cm with cooler temps..
    Lack of vibe on this thread suggests to me not much confidence ..?
     
  21. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Hard to be confident with how the systems have played out this winter IMO.
    We'll get something out of this, but it's not a game changer.
     
  22. iagreewithhim

    iagreewithhim Well-Known Member

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    Ridgey McRidgeface.

    [​IMG]
     
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  23. Jasper Schwarz

    Jasper Schwarz Active Member

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    Might be seeing another 20-30cm on Friday-Saturday,
    Thoughts
     
  24. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    EC snow accum is about 10-15cm. It certainly isn't a game changer, but the temperatures are better than this current system.
     
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  25. Mister Tee on snow shoes

    Mister Tee on snow shoes Dedicated Member

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    I need to see 10 cm near TBJ and 40 cm at The GGS hut to go and get my snow shoes/snow camping kit out for a trip to Mt. Stirling.If Falls Creek gets more snow during the week ahead then I might head up Road 24 to Pretty Valley at Falls Creek or out to Edmondson's hut.
     
  26. Jasper Schwarz

    Jasper Schwarz Active Member

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    Bom is expecting more?
     

    Attached Files:

  27. chicski

    chicski Dedicated Member

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    BOM was expecting 1m of snow this week too.
     
  28. Jasper Schwarz

    Jasper Schwarz Active Member

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    True that
     
  29. Froff Life

    Froff Life Dedicated Member
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    Yeah BOM has gotten it very wrong for this whole week, but then again a lot of forecasts have...
     
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  30. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage
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    The dominance of the highs looks like it will be worn down progressively not dramatically.
    If anyone was thinking what 1992 would have been like without the volcano...this year could be it.
     
  31. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    Though most models have a nice big blocking high parking itself at end of respective runs.. ;)
     
  32. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN Well-Known Member

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    its no snowagedon but I will take it.
    IMO they have been going for the big block at the end of most runs. Does not seem to be playing out.
     
  33. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    It's trying to replicate the recent block pattern that dominated the recent month in sizeable anomaly, it's a normal model trait.
     
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  34. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Models haven't been brilliant for this set of systems; I wouldn't say bad though IMO
    Mix in a bit of gut instinct and you get a closer realization of what might happen.
     
  35. Jacko4650

    Jacko4650 Well-Known Member

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    This was pretty spot-on. Higher parts of Thredders, Perisher, Smiggs etc all getting decent snow but more of the "R" stuff in Vic. Nice prediction!
     
  36. Mister Tee on snow shoes

    Mister Tee on snow shoes Dedicated Member

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    Locations in VIC. below 1750 M. may have a very lean year this white season. We shall see but Mt. F.T. , Mt. Nelse/Northern Bogong High Plains and Mt. Bogong ( the three big ones in VIC. for BC snow action ) will come through with the goods by August , I hope.
     
  37. PiedPiper

    PiedPiper Active Member

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    Probably the right time of year to bring out this gem again,
    "Models tend to fall down a bit during the change of seasons" ie. as we move form a pattern of dominant highs to a pattern dominated more by alternating fronts and fast(er) moving highs the models really struggle to adapt. resulting in what we see now. Give em another 2 weeks and the models will be a bit more reliable again....

    Alas my personal prediction for this one is that it will all be a bit of a fizzer, esp sat and sun, i can't see the moisture making it to the alps. happy to be wrong though.
     
  38. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    Should be 25 in it imo
     
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  39. Sno Sno SNO

    Sno Sno SNO Active Member

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    Vote me for the 25 target.
     
  40. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Same. Same.
    Dries up a bit in the morning but back with us tomorrow night thru to Monday or so.
    Steady accumulation only, add in a bit of windblown .....
     
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  41. The Fallen

    The Fallen Well-Known Member

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    Now that the current Low is heading SE, the models should get a better look into the weekend.

    The Low just hitting Perth is peaking early but just behind it is an embedded front and hopefully a developing low. Check the link in the lower Left Corner. Just on the brew. If it keeps feeding and the Perth Low weakens and drifts SE, then the trailing will come close to being a direct hit.

    Watching with interest

    http://satview.bom.gov.au/
     
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  42. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    I'll go another foot (30.5cm) to make a pair of feet (last system + this system). Just steady accumulation over the period.
     
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  43. Xwing

    Xwing Well-Known Member

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  44. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    I reckon 20-30cm for the period, based on EC guidance. The temperatures are much better than this system and the moisture is there, not amazing, but there. This would open some more terrain in the resorts and increase the base. But it isn't going to send us into top to bottom cover.
     
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  45. Jasper Schwarz

    Jasper Schwarz Active Member

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    Bom is really cutting back on the moisture for this system,
    The Tempratures are much better for this system though,
    More runs will definitely open if we get even 10cm from this system
     
  46. jungfrau

    jungfrau Active Member

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    On Kosci??
     
  47. jungfrau

    jungfrau Active Member

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    Temp is a priority, then the moisture matters for Aust ski resorts.
     
  48. jungfrau

    jungfrau Active Member

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    If the temps are right then the moisture matters ;)
     
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  49. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    Perisher, won't be surprised if I'm over-estimating, but I like the symmetry.
     
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  50. jungfrau

    jungfrau Active Member

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    They have received a foot last few days??