Predictions July 4 - 6th System

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Claude Cat, Jun 27, 2016.

  1. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    Bom update (Snowies)

    Monday 4 July
    Cloudy. Areas of fog and frost in the morning. Slight (30%) chance of rain about the ranges at night. Near zero chance of rain elsewhere. Snow possible above 1400 metres. Winds west to northwesterly 20 to 30 km/h tending northwest to northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h in the early afternoon then becoming light in the evening.

    No UV Alert, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

    Chance of snow
    30% at 1800m
    10% at 1400m
    0% at 1000m
    Tuesday 5 July
    Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of rain, most likely from the late morning. Snow falling above 1100 metres. Winds north to northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light in the morning then becoming south to southwesterly 20 to 30 km/h in the evening.

    Chance of snow
    90% at 1800m
    70% at 1400m
    20% at 1000m
    Wednesday 6 July
    Cloudy. High (80%) chance of rain. Snow falling above 1200 metres. Winds southwesterly 30 to 45 km/h.

    Chance of snow
    80% at 1800m
    50% at 1400m
    10% at 1000m
    Thursday 7 July
    Cloudy. High (70%) chance of rain. Snow falling above 1400 metres. Winds south to southwesterly 25 to 40 km/h tending south to southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day.

    Chance of snow
    70% at 1800m
    30% at 1400m
    Below 5% at 1000m


    Yeah Nah for Perisher

    [​IMG]

    Monday's going to be a good day to ski, Tuesday even better :)
     
  2. Philski1961

    Philski1961 Active Member

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    Cold pool goes north so coldest air is more the CTs. That said, alps are forecast to have snow to 1100-1300m. That's the lowest elevation it will fall, so lower areas will see more r*** than snow but should be a good dump above 1700.
     
  3. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

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    Still like it for 20 - 30 , wouldnt surprise to get a little more with the luck holding.
     
  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    I can't say I've been following this one.
    Looks like a dud to me. I see maybe 1-5cm of snow above 1300m on Tuesday but Wednesday looks like a wash-out for the Alps. The cut-off draws in warm moist air (trough) from the NW-interior followed by the rotation drawing in even more warm moist air (warm front) from the southern Tasman. There's +3c anomalies in the southern Tasman at the moment.
    No net gain here for the resorts, IMO.
     
  5. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    It will start well Tuesday. Delivery 30 cm up high and maybe over 70 cm for the week above 2000m.

    But it will turn to snot later Wednesday/Thursday below 1500m

    It will likely be raining in Thredbo Village but snowing up top for a good part of the period after Wednesday.

    But looks cold again by Friday Saturday.

    Overall a big gain for everywhere above 1700 m, especially above 1900m

    If it aligns a little better it could be a winner.

    Looks real good but net week will be better.
     
    #105 7wombathead, Jul 3, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 3, 2016
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  6. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    Hopefully it moves rapidly away enough once the warm air wraps around.
    Buller should be safe imo, sse shadow.
    Hotham could get a bit of the tail, whatever it falls as. Same NSW and lesser extent maybe falls.
     
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  7. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    NSW BOM are still keen on it, if anything more keen and have lowered the freeze levels:

    Tuesday 5 July
    Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of rain, most likely from the late morning. Snow falling above 1100 metres. Winds north to northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light in the morning then becoming south to southwesterly 20 to 30 km/h in the evening.

    Chance of snow
    90% at 1800m
    70% at 1400m
    20% at 1000m
    Wednesday 6 July
    Cloudy. High (80%) chance of rain. Snow falling above 1200 metres. Winds southwesterly 30 to 45 km/h.

    Chance of snow
    80% at 1800m
    50% at 1400m
    10% at 1000m
    Thursday 7 July
    Cloudy. High (70%) chance of rain. Snow falling above 1400 metres. Winds south to southwesterly 25 to 40 km/h tending south to southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day.

    Chance of snow
    70% at 1800m
    30% at 1400m
    Below 5% at 1000m
     
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  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    The uppers look horrible for snow in the resorts on Wednesday. I am not sure how BOM/WZ see that?
    850hPa/2C
    700hPa/-5C
    500hPa/-21C
     
  9. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    Been away over the weekend, but tonight and tomorrow look good for up to a foot at resort level. Good levels of moisture and it's arriving in the night which can sometimes help (in this case IMO it does). Most if not all resorts should be almost fully up and running after this one.
     
  10. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    Feels a bit like Dejavouz from 2 weeks ago where a number of people weren't overly enthused about the system that brought 70cm over the course of the week at Perisher......It will definitely be interesting to watch how the next few days pan out...
     
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  11. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Yep, I must be looking at last years models...
     
  12. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    Bit harsh on the people who thought it would be marginal on the Wednesday (I was one of them). No one was thinking Friday would be a fizzer.

    Also, this system is very different to that one in terms of its formation and track.
     
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  13. davidg

    davidg Addicted Member
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    Has been a good start to winter snow-wise for the CT's, this will be what, the 3rd snowfall in 2 weeks? I see Orange has snow in the forecast form Tuesday which is always a good sign. Nice uppers should see some good heavy falls IMO.
     
    #113 davidg, Jul 4, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 4, 2016
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  14. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    True. Not trying to be harsh here but just felt very similar to what happened 2 weeks ago in terms of the numbers not looking fab .......it just seems weird that the models are progging 850's of 2 degrees and in general the temps don't look good, but why would BOM be so confident that the cold pool is going to be right over the alps for the entire duration.

    No disrespect intended towards Verm, or Pow, or anyone for that matter. You're both far more qualified than I am :)
     
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  15. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    You can discount the 850 Hpa over the mountains because the models don't really address topographic effect that well.
    These are good numbers for snow.
    700hPa/-5C
    500hPa/-21C

    If there was clearing day the western faces would be cranking.
     
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  16. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    IMO -21C @ 500hpa is very meh for snow. Get down to -24C and below and you're talking.
     
  17. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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  18. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    I don't like these numbers at all. I'm just hoping the moisture will too far to the NE to really do too much damage.

    IMO
     
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  19. Philski1961

    Philski1961 Active Member

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    The moisture will be surging from the SE. Baw Baw will not do well out of this, nor the lower slopes at Thredbo. Buller might be just far enough west. Selwyn likewise.
    I think we will see an overall but small net gain over 1700m and a net loss below.
     
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  20. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    This.
     
  21. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    All good man! :thumbs:
    Just for the record, I am not Meteorologically qualified. Never have been, never will be - but like most here I am a WX geek and actively watched models for over 18 years now. To me, BOM & WZ have over baked their forecast - Just my opinion.

    Uppers won't lie but only IF the models are true.
     
  22. Edgecrusher

    Edgecrusher Pool Room
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    Hmm, looks good for another round of flooding for the Snowy River if that comes off.
     
  23. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    It's going to be very interesting what the next few days bring......

    I like the look of the BOM's forecast, but as you guys have said, temps look warm which makes sense as the SST's are still above average off S and SE Australia where that low is going to suck up from, along with the warmer moisture being sucked in from the north......doesn't bode well.

    Are BOM banking on the cold pool getting trapped over the Alps?
     
  24. bondibob

    bondibob Active Member

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    Heading down on Thursday night... Praying that this works out!!

    Jane seems to be on board which is encouraging.
     
  25. Philski1961

    Philski1961 Active Member

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    BoM advise to us at SES is local falls of 200mm out of this event for far NSW south coast. Could be decent falls in Snowy, you'll likely see a Flood Watch in the Snowy R.
    I'm seeing rain under 1700m still dominating and you'll likely see rain at times Wednesday above that too. This is not a great system.
     
  26. sbm

    sbm Dedicated Member
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    Jane's forecast is up. For wednesday

    "Snow/rain, heaviest south-facing slopes
    Snow amount: 5-30cm
    Lowest snow: 1700m"

    I mean from a Perisher point of view that's not so bad...
     
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  27. Cuddles

    Cuddles Active Member

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    Well the 2 watches are on it as well. Perisher is high so unless the temps remain high, which I doubt , its on from tomorrow AM some time. A similar event to this in 1900 buried Bathurst and Goulburn and probably the snowy's as well. lets watch and see
     
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  28. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon Active Member

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    Bom have snow above 1100 or 1200m big difference from other forcasts
     
  29. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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  30. bondibob

    bondibob Active Member

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    CC - for the uneducated can you explain that - I can see plenty of moisture but temps?
     
  31. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    Classic gippsland ecl deluge!
     
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  32. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    Marginal imo.
    But should be OK up top most resorts. Hope so, the next system not pretty atm
     
  33. bondibob

    bondibob Active Member

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    BOM are remaining bullish on snow levels down low - I am picking up a vibe on here this is doubtful?
     
  34. tele-whippet

    tele-whippet beard stroker
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    BOM have raised the snow level by 100M in NSW CT's to 1000M Tuesday, 1100M Wednesday
     
  35. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Purely moisture.
    Temps are marginal, especially on Wednesday as the ECL bombs IMO.
     
  36. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    I don't see it TBH.
     
  37. Philski1961

    Philski1961 Active Member

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    Forget the NSW central tablelands - snow levels there are a distraction as they are where the coldest air is and are not indicative of what is happening in the alps.
    people should ignore the snow symbols against resorts too and focus on the percentages at each elevation on the NSW forecasts. Sure it'll snow at some point at all resorts on Wednesdsy, but lower areas may only see snow a few hours of the day the rest as rain. Higher areas may see mostly snow and just a few hours of rain.
     
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  38. Alfred14

    Alfred14 Active Member

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    [​IMG]

    Not sure if im seeing it wrong but shouldn't we be getting a bit of snow tomorrow?
     
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  39. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

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    I liked this if the luck held , looks like the luck is deserting us a bit. If we still get some luck it will be that the rain moves through quickly and does little damage. I still see some snow and hopefully enough to correct the rain damage. Damn it all.
    On the bright side I somehow think Vic will not fair as well as NSW , just a feeling.
    Rivers on the western slopes/plains cant take much more rain and I see a little bit of a problem occurring in this area.
     
  40. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN Well-Known Member

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    I dont check too much, but, the first time I have seen 'heavy snow' on BOM met eye. Wed 4am - 7am
     
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  41. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Yes, tomorrow (Tues) looks fine for snow above 1300m, 5-10cm IMO.
     
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  42. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Yes tomorrow should be snowy, Wednesday is the concern IMO
     
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  43. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    3-4C @ ~1500m come Wednesday over the Main Range. That puts snow to around 1700m IMO.
    [​IMG]
     
  44. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Looks to me, timing wise, temperatures should be ok until Wednesday morning.
    Wednesday afternoon, the uppers really warm up.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    So you could have a situation where it's, say snowing down to 1300m Wednesday morning, but that rapidly rises to higher levels in the afternoon. IMO
     
  45. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    500hPa temps are ok @ -24C
    [​IMG]

    Couple that with the lifting effect with the SE, I think it's ok Wednesday morning IMO
     
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  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Yeah, but it's after daybreak that upper temps and precip are progged to increase.
     
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  47. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    BOM throws a broad blanket of precip over the NSW resorts with 15-50mm forecast for Wednesday. Pack ya brolly if you're heading for Thredbo village!
     
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  48. Nidecker

    Nidecker Dedicated Member
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    Faaark 1st day of inter schools :( Thredbo is as cursed as buller! I observe.......
     
  49. skichic

    skichic Addicted Member

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    Ours was last week at Qld interschools. Crap weather is mandatory.
     
  50. Nidecker

    Nidecker Dedicated Member
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    True