Predictions July 4 - 6th System

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Claude Cat, Jun 27, 2016.

  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Possibly another quick system.
    Doesn't look super strong at this stage, but worth keeping an eye on.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  2. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    High is in a promising position at least.
     
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  3. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Better on 00Z GFS

    [​IMG]
     
  4. Hermon

    Hermon Dedicated Member

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    Some impressive cold uppers for July 4 on the 00Z GFS chart. -17degC at 700 HPa and -35degC at 500 HPa over Vic are unusually cold!
     
  5. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
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    Big area of -4 at 850 on July 4. Looks good at the moment.
     
  6. PMG

    PMG Dedicated Member
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    Looks almost straight south atm. Rain shadow?
     
  7. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Looks a little more hooky on the 00z GFS run.
     
  8. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    EC this afternoon.

    [​IMG]
     
  9. ice_man

    ice_man Dedicated Member

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    This evening GFS says repeat of Friday. EC above has pressure very high but could still bring something. Access-G just looks weird, high is swinging the cold air in a north-westerly direction into central Australia. Long way out but I'm hoping for another really cold outbreak since I missed the one last week.
     
  10. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    EC says look to the 6th ;)
     
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  11. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    The progression on this still looks unrealistic to me.
    Major potential here.
    Really is almost part of the first 'high clearing' node.
    Plenty surf before the sw comes into play in vic if it doesn't come off for snow anyway.
     
  12. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    It does look kind of odd on EC this morning. Right now, nothing much, but models having trouble with the previous system so little wonder this is moving around like crazy.
     
  13. Bloke

    Bloke Dedicated Member

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    Well that was short lived
     
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  14. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Looks to be a very cold large wandering cold pool cutoff combo.

    Did GFS go out for Lunch on this one. She has been a bit more reliable this year, so double guessing this forecast period now.:rolleyes:

    [​IMG]
     
  15. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
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    Heading towards Adelaide ?. This happened last year and Vic got bugger all as it all went North.
     
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  16. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    Plenty divergence though.
     
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  17. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    Look for it to return this evening...
     
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  18. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    GFS has it ridging, Axs has it too early. Ec?
    Anyway, positioning somewhere inbetween seems likely to me, and that's good.
    But, 4 day rule and all with this divergence
     
  19. skimax

    skimax Old And Crusty
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    GFS has brexited
     
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  20. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    2-1 win to axs
     
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  21. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Stay on topic.
     
  22. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Latest GFS is like EC. The low peaks too far west and forms a cut-off situation.

    [​IMG]
     
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  23. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo
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    Forms a cutofff and dies a slow death over The Simson Dessert. Though the front hitting VIC on 4th still looks to be delivering something.
     
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  24. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
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    The models are so far apart and all over the place. Impossible to predict IMO. They change so much every day.
     
  25. Sno Sno SNO

    Sno Sno SNO Active Member

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    Trusting this weekend, not next week at this rate.
     
  26. jonathanc

    jonathanc Dedicated Member

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    Just at a guess I think it might improve after this weekend's system goes through
     
  27. Cuddles

    Cuddles Active Member

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    Another cold week of snowmaking will do me ..Time to get the gear out
     
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  28. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    GFS coming into line with Axs /ec.
    Boo
     
  29. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Yep all agreed ,.
    We'll get some joy but the moisture looks spent before it gets to the Alps.
    IMO.
     
  30. Wardy

    Wardy Well-Known Member

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    This is an evolving story... It may have a lame ending; but it's evolving...
     
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  31. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Latest GFS run suggests it's cold enough from the 4th right through to the 8th.



    Enough evidence there will be some precipitation during this period too.
    IMO
     
  32. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    EC going the same way as GFS
    The ECL will probably draw the moisture & cold north and favour NSW resorts IMO
     
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  33. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

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    Starting to get a feel for this one , keeping a close watch on it.
     
  34. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    The BOM ACCESS G has just jacketed all over this forum.

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]


    [​IMG] [​IMG]
     
  35. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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  36. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

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    The ups and downs of the rollercoaster ride continue , great fun isnt it :).

    In a seperate newsworthy item , some experts/scientists ( whichever you want) are predicting a solar minimum for around 2019/2020 which may spark a mini ice age . Apparently the sun has gone blank (no sun spots) for a few days which may indicate the coming of a solar minimum. Mention something about the Maunder Minimum in 1645 , not really my area of expertise so maybe one of the more learned gents/ladies here may be able to elaborate on this for us all.
     
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  37. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Pressure is very high.
    TBH, I'm not expecting to much of this. 10-15cm at best - NSW resorts should get more with less in the south, possibly as little as 5cm
    IMO
     
    #37 Claude Cat, Jun 29, 2016
    Last edited: Jun 29, 2016
  38. sbm

    sbm Dedicated Member
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    Personally I don't see the progression very well yet.

    Seems cold IMO (I suppose expected at this time of year) and every little bit of snow helps. With 3 systems in a row with no rain, I'm quite happy with the start of the season and the snow surface should be in great condition for the next week.

    I predict next week's Spencers Creek reading will easily break 1m.
     
  39. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Beats wind packed powder above 7000 ft. A dump without much wind.

    The progression is good IMO. Real good.

    But see how it pans out
     
  40. Philski1961

    Philski1961 Active Member

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  41. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Not looking as good today on Access G . But GFS has a nice looking ECL.
     
  42. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    GFS 18Z suggests some rain followed by a little snow afterwards IMO

     
  43. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Looks a little colder on EC, so better in that regard IMO
     
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  44. Falls expat

    Falls expat Dedicated Member

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    Interesting system. Two things of note.

    One is models are absolutely terrible at predicting cut off lows position, movement and strength more than a few days out.

    Two is that big snowfalls can come from two sources over the Aussie Alps. The usual pattern is regular weather fronts pushing in on a WNW wind flow like in 1990-92. Or sometimes you get a slow moving cut off low which if cold enough can dump very large snowfalls. I vaguely remember one like this in the mid 1980s which dumped over a metre at Mt Buller and many other parts of the Alps. This has a chance of the latter as there doesn't seem to be a major warm air feed into it at the moment. However, I never trust cut off lows.
     
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  45. Bloke

    Bloke Dedicated Member

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    Another good example is the dump that led to the avalanche that destroyed kunama hut in the 60's. Snow came from SE i believe via an ecl, news reports from the day mention deep snow at all kinds of low places.
     
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  46. Philski1961

    Philski1961 Active Member

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    Jane has updated. Looking more and more like it will be a win then lose system with no real net gain or loss. http://www.janesweather.com/snowforecast
    Perhaps the models will smile on us tonight with the low moving in a better track across the alps.
     
  47. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    IMO I'm not seeing much change in the 00Z GFS run. Snow level does look like it will fluctuate during the period. IMO
     
  48. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

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    If they get anywhere near 40mm of rain (the top end of Jane's range) it'll be a substantial net loss. The best case scenario at 1500m based on what she's got is no net gain/loss but the midpoint is worse IMO
     
  49. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
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    Another one with more tricks and turns then the super trail.
     
  50. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Tonight's EC, which appears a little better than GFS IMO



    No inland low here.
    So still plenty of divergence.
     
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