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Discussion in 'Weather' started by Claude Cat, Jul 7, 2017.
10cm 14-15th 70cm 17-19th
Next two days, 5cm range NSW (dusting), next week, 40-50cm NSW.
Mine is unsettled snow
Wind loading will also bump these totals in some zones, should be some epic wind stashes post event!
yep. anything E through S facing will see serious accumulations, ~1m.
Vic looks like 10-20cm for the period
NSW looks like 25-40cm for the period.
I reckon it depends on the low positioning and wind loading for higher snowfall.
I added up totals on Stormcast and it was up around 2 feet or so.
I don't like that the cut off is more towards below Adelaide, ideally needs to be sitting over or just next to Tassie.
If it does end up sitting where they have it progged then it won't be ideal and may increase pre-frontal
Main Range should fill in nicely for your next BC trip
if the slide at Boges on Monday is anything to go by.... caution might be advised with that amount of wind loading.
Anyone know what the wind forecasts are like on Tuesday/Wednesday? Wind hold likely at Perisher?
In any case, don't fret about this at this point imo
wind + snow = win.
30 - 40 knots plus.
worse in Vicco.
Yes wind hold likely *at this stage. per Plowking ^^
I predict wind hold wont matter. Perisher wont be overly busy.
Best case scenario is low winds.
We win either way - strong winds = wind blown & T bars to ride. All being well Mt P Ts will open.
Disappointing it did not rain today. All that lovely snow on the Main Range Peaks, that I spied on Wednesday from Blue Cow on all aspects, has likely been blown away. Dam it. Last week saw solid accumulations not reported by Perisher AWS.
Anyway should see some accumulations below the Peaks.
I am thinking that the high this Saturday night, means you could get out the Main Range. Then u will have to wait till next Friday for another clearing high and another southerly gale. MMMMM were to go?
Pretty sure i will be splitting around stirling on weds
You are banned
What happened to the dire forecasts of 35mm of the bad stuff today? Cold enough at Perisher to have started as snow from the beginning, is it expected to warm later this afternoon?
From what I was looking at didn't see much in the way of rain. And temps looked marginal only for a short time period. With the event fizzing but I didn't comment
1. it's slightly colder than expected.
2. the wind is providing an adiabatic cooling effect.
I wasn't too worried about prefrontal today (except at Buller).
What do you mean?
Yep I am banned from NSW ski resorts for the rest of the year.
Always looking for highs means its a good season bro.
Wind = Crampons.
Yep - no point having a 4m base if you don't get a window to ride fluff on top of it. Once we have 1m at Spencers Creek we just want regular top ups with a few sunny days between.
4m base makes for a pretty good spring though....
NZ just quietly getting smashed
Although a 4 m base sounds pretty cool.
Have to charge both sides of the Tasman this year.
Hopefully that low can park itself a little further NE, multiple embedded..... mmmm
Tuesday = powder day?
This arvos GFS still looking very nice for next Tuesday - Thursday.
With a foot or so on top, will it matter?
Mmm, chairlift jumps... but not recommended
A foot? And the rest on the main range...
Similarly to last 2 days the 2 Cut Off Lows have been progged to seperate at a similar time with the high pressure loitering between the 2. The timing and latitudinal movement has been ( and still is) integral to the path of the cold pool we so muchly desire. Kinda like a builders spirit level. So far so good
The cold shot due on 19th visible at 55 South. Certainly shown to move very much Northly . Seems a little low percentile IMO.
Tuesday is a lock for about a foot.
Methinks maybe extend other thread to start on the 17th?
Don't give up your day jobs.................................
All Aboard the Vorticity train.
He's suggesting this thread got yesterday wrong. I disagree, although not many resorts got to 5cm...
BOM upgrade upgrade upgrade....
Hope it holds!
I respectfully disagree wrt Victoria Alps where it's seems steady for Tuesday: (8-28mm Buller & 8-30mm Hotham).
I note Vic Bom are generally much more conservative when predicting rain/snow totals (sorry guys - how I see it after 30 years' skiing!)
8mm min vs 20mm is a big difference for Hotham vs Thredbo/Perisher. Is that right? Is it the extra height, the position of front, the topography, all of this?
Or the difference of the Sydney vs Melbourne forecasters?
Be fascinated to hear from the Inner Council!
Not sure other than we have not had serious ongoing winds this winter. In respect to Perisher, I know several runs that will benefit from the aspect wind driven snow off the range on top of the snow that falls across the resort. Fingers crossed all the ski fields get their fair share
Preparing for the last minute downgrades so...............................25 - 35cm in NSW , VIC ..........don't know really anything about Buller so Falls/Hotham 20 - 35cm. Optimistic even these average totals will be reached.
Choo, choo! All aboard the embedded front train! Count em
Not sure where the BOM's confidence for precip comes from (the upper limits look high), none of the models had those sort of totals in this afternoons updates. Taking the latest precip forecasts I reckon 10-15cm for Vic resorts and 15-20cm in NSW. Snow from late Monday afternoon (4pm ish) through breakfast time Wednesday before the weather clears. Snow level hovering around 1300m in Vic for the most part. NSW resorts wont see much until early Tuesday and persist a little longer into Wednesday afternoon before clearing, snow level around 1400m.