Predictions July 14th-18th

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Claude Cat, Jul 7, 2017.

  1. glengary

    glengary Well-Known Member
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    I tried but for some reason can't do it.
     
  2. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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  3. glengary

    glengary Well-Known Member
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    Back to 1964, that would be nice.
     
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  4. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    GFS 00z might've actually upgraded this...
     
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  5. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Certainly has. A more sustained period of snowfalls is what i see.
     
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  6. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    I might've been understating....

    Pressure gradient is off the hook.
     
  7. glengary

    glengary Well-Known Member
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    What a lovely change from a down grade.
     
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  8. glengary

    glengary Well-Known Member
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    I have a friend, not many, that works at the BOM and he is saying privately snow down to 400 on Tuesday and Wednesday.
     
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  9. glengary

    glengary Well-Known Member
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    Good chance for old chops
     
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  10. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    He'll probably break out the XC skis on the front lawn!
     
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  11. Budgiesmuggler

    Budgiesmuggler Addicted Member
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    Snow at my mum and dads in the Kiewa...
     
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  12. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Thats a lot of Vorticity (in black Scribble) for 850 hPa . And those wind flags are feeding the beast nicely.
     
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  13. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture
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    IMO 10-15cm for NSW Friday - Saturday then

    50cm+ next week. Just don't like the southerly from Wednesday onwards next week. Tends to dry things up at the NSW resorts and blows snow off the runs. Is a Buller / Baw Baw / Lake Mountain special from Wednesday onwards.
     
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  14. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

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    If this is true then every inch of my property will be white ( highest elevation 852m asl , lowest 619m asl ) :):):):skier::skier::skier:.
     
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  15. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture
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    Got any good skiable lines for some tractor skiing? Would imagine the ground cover is tight at present.
     
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  16. glengary

    glengary Well-Known Member
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    Can only hope.
     
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  17. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

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    Its been done before , last time was in 2015. We had a motorised ropetow next to the machinery shed when I was a kid , mainly for haulage but came into play a few times. However as you can imagine the ground at that height is sparse in cover at the best of times with protruding rock formations ( as well as singles) a definite hazard but the more foolhardy like myself have beenknown to take up the challenge.
     
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  18. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Tomoz looking minty once the front pushes thru.
    This the technique compliments the fool proof "stick the head out the window".
    [​IMG]
     
  19. Taipan

    Taipan Part of the Furniture
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    Been out in weather like that. In fact worse. Sailing NZ to Australia 76. Would not recommend it to anyone. It wasn't long after that I decided to take up skiing on dry land. LOL
     
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  20. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Could get a little wet in Melbourne on the 18th
     
  21. kimberlee81

    kimberlee81 Dedicated Member

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  22. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

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    How cool is that...........food for thought.
     
  23. SMSkier

    SMSkier Dedicated Member

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    If that the case I might have to open Mount Marralea at 1100 ASL :skier:LOL
     
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  24. kimberlee81

    kimberlee81 Dedicated Member

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    Every time I drive past the You Yangs, I think, "Hmmm... snowmaking!" (Although the Dandenongs might be a better bet)
     
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  25. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    Current run gfs has got Buller written all over it.
     
  26. Megs

    Megs Active Member

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    What areas?? In case I've missed it somewhere ;) I love hearing things like this... makes me incredibly hyper!
     
  27. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope Dedicated Member
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    I'm loving the positive vibe for this period! However one question following on from some queries by @telecrag: BOM totals for Perisher Valley from Monday onwards look very modest. I read somewhere ages ago that BOM rely primarily on one model for forecasting. Thoughts?
     
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  28. Seafm

    Seafm Dedicated Member
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    I'll expect pics or it didn't happen.
     
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  29. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    Currently looks like strongest part of the system is from the SW...and for a couple of days.
    One of those occasions where My Buller (and bawbaw) might see significantly more snow than the rest of the resorts.
    *might.
    Still a bit of time for this to change
     
  30. Taipan

    Taipan Part of the Furniture
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    Models have their place. They are getting better. Generally max of 72 hours or 3 days.

    That's why I go back to the satellite photos and look for visual strength of cold air.

    Secondly you can have all the coldness you desire, but if the system is weak, if it doesn't show punch, it won't get anywhere. Strong gale force winds, which is related to pressure, but let's get back to gale force winds and keep it straight forward.

    These series of fronts show serious strength. In Australia we are lucky that the highest mountains we have are in the SE corner subject to these strong frontal systems.

    I remain highly optimistic for the current week. 30-70cm starting tomorrow night.
     
  31. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    The NW hook is pretty prolonged, GFS has just extended out and strengthened the back end favourinn Buller and Bawbs.
     
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  32. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture
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    BOM is always conservative until much closer to the event.
     
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  33. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN Well-Known Member

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    New GFS is in for tonight. Buller special at the arse end of the system.

    [​IMG]
     
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  34. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    Yeah, but that hook is not well aligned ATM imo. Bit funky.
    I like it better for the SW portion.
     
  35. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture
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    Progression west to east seems to pause near Adelaide for 24 hrs. Hopefully just an anomaly with the forecast.
     
  36. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

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    If it happens then there will be pics..........................need to work out how to post them here though because I can be stupidus computaris delectis at times. LOL
     
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  37. stridercdh

    stridercdh Active Member

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    Planning a day trip to Stirling next week - hopefully the systems deliver this time. Only question is, regarding the potential snowfall and other conditions such as wind, which day would be best for the trip: Wednesday or Thursday? (They're my only days off.) Any ideas?
     
  38. AJS

    AJS Well-Known Member

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  39. NewTurns

    NewTurns Dedicated Member
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    We would like pics!
     
  40. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    How's about decide early next week....
     
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  41. stridercdh

    stridercdh Active Member

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    Tempting... Might have to do an overnighter up at Bluff Spur ;)
     
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  42. stridercdh

    stridercdh Active Member

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    Good point.
     
  43. BlueHue

    BlueHue Dedicated Member

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    This is the main risk with this system IMO - the hook delivering NWers sits west and delivers it's strength elsewhere before drying out as it turns SW later in event. To my eye the hook sitting further west has been showing up on the models more so over the last 24 hrs. Still a very decent system, I'm talking the difference between a good fall of snow and a genuine big dump, which is the beauty of systems like this. The fallback position is still good, the upside is potential for the best skiing of the season.
     
  44. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    EC 12UTC:

    [​IMG]

    Also going for another follow up next weekend!

    [​IMG]
     
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  45. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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  46. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa Dedicated Member

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    Bit of a downgrade all round this morning. All depends of the positioning of the embedded lows/troughs to whether it'll be monster totals or just a normal dump. Hopefully comes back a bit.
     
  47. Wax the Fattys

    Wax the Fattys Active Member

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    Whats your gut feeling @SAsurfa ?

    If you were to throw your helmet into the ring, what totals would you be throwing down?
     
  48. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    GFS generated
    Precip by next weekend.
    A foot or so , seems reasonable to anticipate.IMO.
    As @SAsurfa says will depend on the embedded troughs (which enhance precip in multiples) .
    Jelly has the EC equivalent (I'm close to cracking and pressing the subscribe button ;))
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  49. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture
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    This mornings AXS has gone off it fair bit but GFS looks better than yesterday IMO.
     
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  50. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    Cut offs can often be make or break, all depends on where they end up sitting.
     
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