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Discussion in 'Weather' started by Claude Cat, Jul 7, 2017.
I tried but for some reason can't do it.
Back to 1964, that would be nice.
GFS 00z might've actually upgraded this...
Certainly has. A more sustained period of snowfalls is what i see.
I might've been understating....
Pressure gradient is off the hook.
What a lovely change from a down grade.
I have a friend, not many, that works at the BOM and he is saying privately snow down to 400 on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Good chance for old chops
He'll probably break out the XC skis on the front lawn!
Snow at my mum and dads in the Kiewa...
Thats a lot of Vorticity (in black Scribble) for 850 hPa . And those wind flags are feeding the beast nicely.
IMO 10-15cm for NSW Friday - Saturday then
50cm+ next week. Just don't like the southerly from Wednesday onwards next week. Tends to dry things up at the NSW resorts and blows snow off the runs. Is a Buller / Baw Baw / Lake Mountain special from Wednesday onwards.
If this is true then every inch of my property will be white ( highest elevation 852m asl , lowest 619m asl ) .
Got any good skiable lines for some tractor skiing? Would imagine the ground cover is tight at present.
Can only hope.
Its been done before , last time was in 2015. We had a motorised ropetow next to the machinery shed when I was a kid , mainly for haulage but came into play a few times. However as you can imagine the ground at that height is sparse in cover at the best of times with protruding rock formations ( as well as singles) a definite hazard but the more foolhardy like myself have beenknown to take up the challenge.
Tomoz looking minty once the front pushes thru.
This the technique compliments the fool proof "stick the head out the window".
Been out in weather like that. In fact worse. Sailing NZ to Australia 76. Would not recommend it to anyone. It wasn't long after that I decided to take up skiing on dry land.
Could get a little wet in Melbourne on the 18th
How cool is that...........food for thought.
If that the case I might have to open Mount Marralea at 1100 ASL
Every time I drive past the You Yangs, I think, "Hmmm... snowmaking!" (Although the Dandenongs might be a better bet)
Current run gfs has got Buller written all over it.
What areas?? In case I've missed it somewhere I love hearing things like this... makes me incredibly hyper!
I'm loving the positive vibe for this period! However one question following on from some queries by @telecrag: BOM totals for Perisher Valley from Monday onwards look very modest. I read somewhere ages ago that BOM rely primarily on one model for forecasting. Thoughts?
I'll expect pics or it didn't happen.
Currently looks like strongest part of the system is from the SW...and for a couple of days.
One of those occasions where My Buller (and bawbaw) might see significantly more snow than the rest of the resorts.
Still a bit of time for this to change
Models have their place. They are getting better. Generally max of 72 hours or 3 days.
That's why I go back to the satellite photos and look for visual strength of cold air.
Secondly you can have all the coldness you desire, but if the system is weak, if it doesn't show punch, it won't get anywhere. Strong gale force winds, which is related to pressure, but let's get back to gale force winds and keep it straight forward.
These series of fronts show serious strength. In Australia we are lucky that the highest mountains we have are in the SE corner subject to these strong frontal systems.
I remain highly optimistic for the current week. 30-70cm starting tomorrow night.
The NW hook is pretty prolonged, GFS has just extended out and strengthened the back end favourinn Buller and Bawbs.
BOM is always conservative until much closer to the event.
New GFS is in for tonight. Buller special at the arse end of the system.
Yeah, but that hook is not well aligned ATM imo. Bit funky.
I like it better for the SW portion.
Progression west to east seems to pause near Adelaide for 24 hrs. Hopefully just an anomaly with the forecast.
If it happens then there will be pics..........................need to work out how to post them here though because I can be stupidus computaris delectis at times.
Planning a day trip to Stirling next week - hopefully the systems deliver this time. Only question is, regarding the potential snowfall and other conditions such as wind, which day would be best for the trip: Wednesday or Thursday? (They're my only days off.) Any ideas?
We would like pics!
How's about decide early next week....
Tempting... Might have to do an overnighter up at Bluff Spur
This is the main risk with this system IMO - the hook delivering NWers sits west and delivers it's strength elsewhere before drying out as it turns SW later in event. To my eye the hook sitting further west has been showing up on the models more so over the last 24 hrs. Still a very decent system, I'm talking the difference between a good fall of snow and a genuine big dump, which is the beauty of systems like this. The fallback position is still good, the upside is potential for the best skiing of the season.
Also going for another follow up next weekend!
Thursday looks better for now.....
Bit of a downgrade all round this morning. All depends of the positioning of the embedded lows/troughs to whether it'll be monster totals or just a normal dump. Hopefully comes back a bit.
Whats your gut feeling @SAsurfa ?
If you were to throw your helmet into the ring, what totals would you be throwing down?
Precip by next weekend.
A foot or so , seems reasonable to anticipate.IMO.
As @SAsurfa says will depend on the embedded troughs (which enhance precip in multiples) .
Jelly has the EC equivalent (I'm close to cracking and pressing the subscribe button )
This mornings AXS has gone off it fair bit but GFS looks better than yesterday IMO.
Cut offs can often be make or break, all depends on where they end up sitting.