Predictions July 14th-18th

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Claude Cat, Jul 7, 2017.

  1. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Depends on where you are. NSW great, Falls/Hotham great, Buller okay, minor resorts not great.
     
  2. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture
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    Have a look at the charts for saturday 10am and next wednesday 10am and tell me which resort is not going to get heaps of snow? Charts about as solid as you can get.

    Put it this way - if these scenarios evntuate and your chosen ski area does not have a significant net gain then i would abandon that ski area and head somewhere else.
     
  3. Rabid K9

    Rabid K9 Dedicated Member
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    Real weather observations, shit no, that would mean you would have to divert oneself from a screen.
     
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  4. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    If ever there was a case of a model that snowballed, it is it.
     
  5. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN Well-Known Member

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    Yes/Naaaaaaaaaaah has lost over 1M of snow from last night to this morning for Perisher. Now 80cm. Comedy Central.
     
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  6. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN Well-Known Member

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    Latest GFS run (18z Wed) is a thing of beauty.

    [​IMG]
     
  7. bolz

    bolz Active Member

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    To the more learned punters; is the position of the low on the 19/20 tracking over bass strait cause for a lake effect multiplier in terms of totals? So often we talk about the Tassie Rain Shadow effect, but here we have a low tracking between the land masses, and then re-establishing to the NE of Tassie. I feels there are gonna be some places with big totals, and perhaps a factor that the models aren't picking up. Baw Baw could do exceedingly well
     
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  8. telecrag

    telecrag Part of the Furniture
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    How come BOM are only going for small totals on this one (Thredbo)?
     
  9. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    I'm not learned, but

    no (lake effect)
     
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  10. Snowy Joey

    Snowy Joey Well-Known Member
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    Happy with 80cm, last nights yeah nah forecast would of been too much for our resorts to cope with.
    I predict it will snow heaps and be bloody cold cos I am camping for the first time with 4 kids up at perisher for a week!!
     
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  11. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa Dedicated Member

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    Event into Friday/Saturday I can only see 5-10cm max for NSW, probably more 5cm, but next week, she's holding strong for anything from 40-60cm.
     
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  12. glengary

    glengary Well-Known Member
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    I'm with you Taipan, 60's and 70's snow report was to get out of bed and go ski and see for yourself. No internet, no t.v. coverage and a tiny little bit on in Thursdays sun. When you see the cold fronts on the 4 day map that's good. When they're not there that's bad. Bring it on.
     
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  13. Outlooker

    Outlooker Active Member

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    Winds are up at Perisher. Mt P double already wind hold. First chairs loading on V8 whilst I enjoy coffee.
     
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  14. Taipan

    Taipan Part of the Furniture
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    That front still has winds of 150km/h+ deep in the southern ocean. Just look at the sat pic, pick an obvious cloud bank that doesn't dissipate and see how far it drifts in an hour.

    Thats a gale force front. Australia will get the top of it, so not as strong but it looks like a pretty big blizzard.

    That also means a lot of snow blown off the main range into places like Thredbo on top of actual snow falls. Fairly normal for blizzards like this.

    Still love seeing strong winter fronts for the aussie alps. Hope everybody's dreams come true over the next week or so.
     
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  15. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    Oh yeah, gonna be huge leeward accumulations. Some very very big wind drifts.
     
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  16. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    Season proper starter
     
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  17. glengary

    glengary Well-Known Member
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    The BOM are forecasting +1 for Buller on Tuesday. To me this looks a lot colder
     
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  18. Kenziepettit

    Kenziepettit Active Member
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    A question for the best forecasters around:
    I'm in hotham over the weekend, however I have the opportunity to go up Friday morning for an extra day. Will I encounter issues with windhold? I'm not too fussed about the rain aspect.
     
  19. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Sorry yes you are right:thumbs: Got those late night blues I haveLOL. Just saying that Buller and the minor resorts are going to get less than the other majors. But they should all easily have a net gain.
     
  20. Taipan

    Taipan Part of the Furniture
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    Always nice to see a high getting squeezed
     
  21. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    Hotham generally fares okay-ish in the wind because a lot of the lifts go down into the valley and are sheltered. But Thursday night and into Friday do look pretty windy. I am definitely not one of the best forecasters around.
     
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  22. Adricat

    Adricat Active Member

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    Similar Q for Thredbo, sleep in Fri or head from Canberra early? We're there for 4 days.
     
  23. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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  24. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    Really?
    I'll take wind hold over rain any day!
     
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  25. Taipan

    Taipan Part of the Furniture
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    Looking to be pretty windy actually. Isobars are looking to get squeezed just over the Australian alps. Snowing from after lunch tomorrow afternoon. Fronts can speed up or slow down of course. Thats what it looks like at 9.30am Thursday - ill look later tonight
     
  26. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    Erry day.
    Windy + snow = good thing
    Windy + rain = no redeeming factors
     
  27. Bullerdonk

    Bullerdonk Active Member

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    Hotham fares the best out of the VIC resorts IMO, with Buller and Falls having more lifts up on top of the plain than Hotham, You'll usually lose Summit, Road Runner, and the Orchard Area when its open at Hotham... the rest usually fine. A lot dependant on direction of course
     
  28. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    When HV shuts on wind hold, village loops and a little walk are my favourite Hotham days.

    Alas.

    Stay on topic!!!

    I still see 10 in this for Hotham.
    Plus loading :)
     
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  29. Hermon

    Hermon Dedicated Member

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  30. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Snow accum figures based on EC, charts are EC.
    Snow level figures are based on GFS, early=10am, late=10pm.
    Friday snow accum:

    NSW 1-5cm, 2000m early, 1400m late.
    VIC 1-5cm, 1500m early, 1200m late.
    Saturday snow accum:

    NSW 1-3cm, 1000m early, 800m late.
    VIC Dusting, 900m early, 1100m late.
    Monday snow accum:

    NSW 5cm, 2000m early, 1800m late.
    VIC 2-5cm, 2000m early, 1700m late.
    Tuesday snow accum:

    NSW 20-30cm + wind loading, 1400m early, 1100m late
    VIC 20-25cm + wind loading, 1300m early, 1100m late
    Wednesday snow accum:

    NSW 15-20cm + wind loading, 1300m early, 1500m late.
    VIC 5cm + minor wind loading, 1400m early, 1300m late.
    Thursday snow accum:

    NSW Dusting, 1200m early, 1400m late
    VIC 2-5cm, 1000m early, 1700m late

    Totals for this system:
    VIC 30-35cm
    NSW 45-65cm
     
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  31. Froff Life

    Froff Life Dedicated Member
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    Good breakdown Jelly
     
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  32. telecrag

    telecrag Part of the Furniture
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    Bom giving upper total of 17cm (mm) for Mon-Wed (Thredbo)?
     
  33. Warlock_01

    Warlock_01 Active Member

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    I believe it when I see it. Every model so far and peoples predictions have been way out of whack. I'm no weather predicter, but everyone seems to talk it up on these systems that have and coming through will dump a substantial amount of snow which so far we have seen has only accumulated 30cm max of natural snow since the season started.
     
  34. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    If you only believed it when you see it you wouldnt bother going into a predictions thread, much less actually posting in one.
     
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  35. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Stay on topic.
     
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  36. cookieman

    cookieman Dedicated Member
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    Its all starting to look very promising to me.
    Only concern I have is temps spoiling the party.
    I wouldn't be surprised if some of the totals will be liquid especially in the lower runs.
    For this period, I predict an average snow net gain of about 18-28cm for Vic and a bit more for NSW.
     
  37. bondibob

    bondibob Active Member

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    weather is complicated and unpredictable - especially in alpine regions in Aus climate.
    They don't just make this stuff up.
    i think you will find a handful of people on here called every system pretty well. 4 day rule. And this is weather after all. It's not easy to predict alpine regions in a marginal cl like Australia. Models have been ok actually as well IMO. Just one degree out
    friday AM is the only danger for temps - the speckled cloud is steaming towards us. It's all cold after Friday early afternoon IMO
     
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  38. Warlock_01

    Warlock_01 Active Member

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    I actually like scouring through these forums and looking at certain charts you guys post that I haven't seen before. It's the only site I trust, including Jane that actually make sense of hard to predict alpine weather. I'm not here to criticise, I'm here to learn more. Sorry for being off topic...
     
  39. BlueHue

    BlueHue Dedicated Member

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    I predict this time next week things will be looking much better than they are now.
     
  40. Wax the Fattys

    Wax the Fattys Active Member

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  41. motty

    motty Active Member

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  42. Undies

    Undies Part of the Furniture
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    Time to clean the keyboard.
     
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  43. glengary

    glengary Well-Known Member
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    The fetch to me says ( From the Sth. Pole with love )
     
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  44. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa Dedicated Member

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    Is this mid-latitude storm carrying more moisture than similar systems because it has started its life in the Indian Ocean, south-east of Madagascar? Instead of deepening off the WA coast/region and moving east?
     
  45. cookieman

    cookieman Dedicated Member
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    I love the way that HIGH is squeezed to a tear drop on the Monday 17th pm chart.
     
  46. Tanuki

    Tanuki Dedicated Member
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    Is there an obvs thread for this time range? Mega wind chill and now raining in Smelbourne
     
  47. CarveMan

    CarveMan aussieskier.com
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    Good idea, I just got a text from a mate who is driving to Buller up the Hume at the moment, said it's looking very dark and stormy north of the city.
     
  48. climberman

    climberman CloudRide1000 Legend
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    sweet baby cheezus
     
  49. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    mother ****er!
     
  50. CarveMan

    CarveMan aussieskier.com
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    deargoditsbeautiful.gif