Predictions July 14th-18th

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Claude Cat, Jul 7, 2017.

  1. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    By Tuesday night you wont care.
     
  2. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

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    Hopefully but sadly only maybe.
     
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  3. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Even working on 50 percent downgrade 17th- 19th would be 30 cm IMO.
     
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  4. PMG

    PMG Dedicated Member
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    There are only two certainties in life - death and taxes.
    Feel free to add your own cliche.
     
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  5. JeremyG

    JeremyG Active Member

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    Story of season 2017 - inside 48hrs - massive down grade. Expect to see the same for the 17th on Saturday. Whereas we used to have a 4 day rule, for some reason the models really are not getting it right until 24-48hrs out.

    We are passed the change in season, why are models getting it so wrong this year?
     
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  6. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

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    Fair enough but when you subtract from that possible/probable loss from Friday................................ still I will be up there soon and will enjoy myself no matter anyhow. I guess the new ski's stay at home which is disappointing.
     
  7. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Text book Aussie "1 or 2 degrees in it "!
    We looking at 1600 ísh for freeze levels in NSW going by AXS-R.
    2 degs at 850 hPa @1440
    The uppers / 500's only in the low -20's not helping
    [​IMG]
    Precip beginning Friday morning.

    [​IMG]
    850's at 1440m 'ish....

    [​IMG]

    and the 500's
     
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  8. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    I'd say off the latest EC run we're looking at 10-15cm for the 14/15 and 40cm+ for the 17-19th
    Still far from shabby. I'm not convinced there will be a lot of prefrontal given the winds.
    IMO.
     
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  9. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN Well-Known Member

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    lol the fretting. We dont have four days of hair drying winds forcast. Chill
     
  10. rocketboy

    rocketboy Dedicated Member
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    As usual it's a dud in the making.

    4 day rule is useless this year. what happened yesterday is about the only reliable indicator of what's actually happening.
     
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  11. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo
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    Yeah, maybe. 540 line climbs all day. Might be OK. :thumbs:

     
  12. Wardy

    Wardy Well-Known Member

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    Not particularly worried and looking at accom for midweek.
     
  13. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    I reckon it's OK too.
    No fretting here , not a bit.
    Vic will be subjected to more moisture before the cooler air hits.
    You want higher res AXS R at 72 hrs Astro ?
    Much the same at this time stamp tho.

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  14. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    540 line crosses Hotham/fc about 4pm

    [​IMG]
     
  15. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    lets have a look at the afternoon AXS run.
     
  16. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    When 0deg ish 850 and -20ish 500, always helps to look to the 700 temps imo

    [​IMG]

    And at -6 by 7am, I'm hopeful of snow down to 1600 from morning....
     
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  17. The Fallen

    The Fallen Well-Known Member

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    As I see it, the change in season is still in progress. Unfortunately, when it comes to weather patterns, the seasons do not always follow our calendar.

    Earlier in the week we still had a couple of lingering troughs over NT and Northern QLD delivering unseasonal rain so this will mess with the change of season.

    The Change in Season comes when the Blocking Highs weaken and allow the Cold Fronts to push their way north. At the moment, the Highs are still strong, but there is enough space between them to allow the Lows and Fronts to push north.

    Last week was step 1 in weakening the Highs. Friday to Sunday is stage 2 after that is looking really good.

    As you have seen in this thread, counting Polar Nodes (Spag Plot) is a good indication.

    Another good indication is counting the Highs floating at southern mid latitudes. The less Highs, the more room between them.

    The Polar Vortex speeds up at this time of year and as it does, it slingshots the Lows further north. When there is room between the Highs, it means more lows make their way to the Mainland.

    At the moment, we have 3 Strong highs in rotation and a couple of weak ones. This means lots of room for the lows to make their run north. (check the Polar MSLP)

    At Peak Winter, in a good winter, the Lows rotate at 3:1 with the Highs. So for each high, you get 3 Cold Fronts hitting the gap.

    Last week delivered 3 weak systems to the one high. This system is looking like a front Friday followed by a weaker high, followed by a stronger front and then a possible 2 stronger fronts.

    The Highs are weakening. The Lows look strong. Looks good to me.
     
    #167 The Fallen, Jul 12, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 12, 2017
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  18. The Fallen

    The Fallen Well-Known Member

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    Well said, and I agree. I cant see Pre Frontal being much of an issue.
     
  19. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Re-posting from mine edit above.
    00z.
     
  20. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo
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    Says pretty much the same. Maybe just getting colder earlier.
     
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  21. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Yep.
    and a little drier too on those Charts we posted for comparison.
    i.e AXS R and AXS G
     
  22. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    AXS showing the 17th system pushing out to the 18th & 19th

     
  23. Taipan

    Taipan Part of the Furniture
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    As somebody who has been watching those sat maps for going on 40 years, this appears to be a mass of cold fronts and cold air heading our way.

    Could get a lot more snow then currently forecast.

    It really looks a great cold air mass and very strong. I would be surprised if you only got 30cm. Im thinking more.

    Weather is weather, but this is a dramatic series of cold fronts. In the 70's you got 1 synoptic map on page 78 of the paper once a day. These days you seem to be overwhelmed with all manner of data. It will be what it will be.

    Reminds me a bit of 81, which in 81 was a couple of weeks earlier. That year topped out at 361cm.

    Wouldnt be surprised anywhere from 30cm - 70cm +
     
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  24. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    Wow. Just wow.
     
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  25. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    I was hoping for a cradling high viz ECL few weeks back.

    EC
     
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  26. Snow Dog

    Snow Dog Active Member

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    Temps for Buller on BOM 17-19 look too high. Can anyone give me comfort?
     
  27. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    For Buller, I wouldn't want to call it.
     
  28. The Fallen

    The Fallen Well-Known Member

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    Hey Taipan, its good to see you back in the weather thread.

    For the uninitiated, the weather knowledge just increased 10 fold.

    All we need now is Falls Expat and a couple of other gurus to venture back, to compliment the work of CC and we are back to the old school vibe of the 90's.... Good times ahead.

    All we need now is the original man with the big stick!

    If not 81, I am thinking that if we can replicate 1990 then we will all be happy!
     
    #178 The Fallen, Jul 12, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 12, 2017
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  29. Taipan

    Taipan Part of the Furniture
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    Your very kind. Just an old fart that nobody takes any notice of these days.

    Hopefully you can see this link.

    http://www.weatherzone.com.au/satellite

    I dont have a whole bunch of data - but for anybody wanting to learn.

    Look at the sat photo - look to the mass of strong speckled cloud SW of WA. Thats wonderfully cold

    Now look at how fast that cloud in the bight is rushing south. Thats a brutal front. Hate to think how fast those winds are on the front. Very fast visually. Just howling down that front line. Strong fronts are good at punching into SA, Vic

    Behind the big band is some slightly thicker cloud - probably a bit marginal - but behind that is lots and lots of really cold air, so characteristic of winter weather systems in Australia.

    The other good thing is that it is skimming WA, which makes it easier to skim along the edge of the great Australian bight towards SA and into the aussie alps.

    Will be interesting to watch this over coming days. Love watching strong weather systems - so beautiful. Just checked out the GFS pressure lines - what? - well we will see. Models beyond 48 hours start to go wobbly, especially with non normal systems
     
    #179 Taipan, Jul 12, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 12, 2017
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  30. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    06Z GFS run going with AXS in slowing down the 2nd part.

    [​IMG]
     
  31. The Fallen

    The Fallen Well-Known Member

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    Your right, its definitely looking the good IMO.

    I have a trick for picking the timing/speed of systems once they hit the mainland.

    Once its in Radar Range, you click on the leading edge of the system at the beginning of the loop and then click the leading edge at the end of the loop (normally 30min). on the bottom right of the radar under "Pointer", it gives you klm's as the crow flies so you can then estimate speed over distance. You can push the loop out to 2 hours to estimate time over longer distance.

    I use it to help mates estimate how long they can keep working before the fronts hit. Mind you, beware of a feeding system as the leading edge will feed and speed up once it finds food.
     
  32. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    Im not too worried about Friday either. Moisture will arrive early in the morning and the snowline will drop throughout the day. If you're going to get rain at village level it'll be more than cancelled out and into the positives in terms of accumulation by the time the sun goes down, which is good enough for me.

    Monday night through to Wednesday looks proper mega, but I am expecting a decent downgrade. The cold air coming from that cutoff just isnt cold enough to sustain that IMO.
     
  33. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    Good post. It can also evaporate and take long to reach you depending on conditions too.
     
  34. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Nice to see you out of the Bear Pit. Defnitely agree.:thumbs:
     
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  35. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    I reckon there will be snow to 2000m from sunrise.
    By Early-Mid Afternoon it should come down to 1600m for Victoria and 1800m for NSW.
    Late Afternoon it would be about 1400m Vic and 1600m NSW.
    Evening 1200m Victoria, maybe 1400m for NSW.
    It should be about 1000m for the whole of the Alps by dawn Saturday.

    Westerly winds all day, terrible for Buller (where I will be at:rolleyes:), fine for everywhere else.
    The main rain band looks to hit mid-late morning, with showers all night. I'd suggest 5-10cm overnight, clearing Saturday morning.
     
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  36. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    The vibe is VERY strong
     
  37. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    Yr.no is 1.5mtrs in 8 daysish

    Halve it and I'm still happy
     
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  38. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Now we just need the Frog to come back.... oh wait. Actually I was discussing about him on PSR today, some dude was trying to talk him up:oops:
     
    #188 Jellybeans1000, Jul 12, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 12, 2017
  39. Taipan

    Taipan Part of the Furniture
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    Frog was good - considering 17 years ago how little we had to work with. Vermillion above very solid. Has a good feel for it.

    60's and 70's i was lucky to sail with a sea captain who served on destroyers in the battle of the atlantic during ww2. He was amazing what he taught me - never forget it. Point to the sea, the clouds the breeze and say in 6 hours time this is what is going to happen and 9/10 he was right. Sailed with him through the tail end of two cyclones in 1976.
     
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  40. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Monday will be bad, Tuesday variable, Wednesday looks good.
    I wouldn't go into details at the moment.
    I don't really get a great vibe from the Frog's forecasts. And he left here at the smell of money. A bit rich, given his forecasts are just as good, if not worst, as you or me, and the other guys here.

    Definitely agree that those at the seas know their weather. I would imagine they would have to be in the know. They could probably sense the weather by looking to the skies. They certainly know their stuff.
     
  41. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons Dedicated Member
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    Off topic, but oh my...
     
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  42. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    Sometimes people look too hard and have too many toys to look at. Sometimes the simplest stuff is the best. Sometimes you just 'know' if something looks right, or doesnt look right. That's how I like to look at it. I also dont have much time these days for looking at weather maps, so I need to condense it down. I used to be a lot better at precise predictions than I am these days I reckon. Focusing my forecasts on my home mountain (Buller) was never a smart idea due to the funky weather it throws up :p
     
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  43. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN Well-Known Member

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    Lock this in the vault! Yes/Naaaah is going for a total of 172cm for Perisher from the 13th to 10am on the 22nd!!!!!!!! lol Bring it #eat_this_japan_POW_POW
     
  44. Bendalong+

    Bendalong+ Active Member

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    Methodical insight, thank you for sharing the knowledge!
     
  45. Jacko4650

    Jacko4650 Well-Known Member

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    Pretty mild. In 96' I witnessed deep-line fishing boats limp into Mooloolaba after a deep low formed with every single window smashed to pieces from walls of water - one boat after the other. They are not small vessels! Water destroyed just about everything electronic, scariest thing the crews had ever gone through. Sort of important to pick the weather at sea. I was a grotty yachty at the time and first sign of bad weather - I headed for a river or harbour on the mainland!
     
  46. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    That's like the entire season base, in one fall. Yr.no is well and truly drunk. I disregard it long term.
     
  47. Adelaidometer

    Adelaidometer Active Member

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    The good old trusty 10 metre a season forecasters. But to be fair I found them to be more conservative than usual last year...
    So in that case I predict 86cm for perisher in that time period :whistle:
    Meanwhile for my trip to Buller on Wed they are forecasting 104.8 up until the morning of my last day there (sat). None of the westerlies are when Buller is above -3... so shall I predict 52.4?
    Still with that I would be stoked!!:confused:
     
    #197 Adelaidometer, Jul 12, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 12, 2017
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  48. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    A sting in the tail.
     
  49. Taipan

    Taipan Part of the Furniture
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    Just looking at that front in the bight. Gale is blowing at over 150 km an hour. Thats solid
     
  50. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture
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    First look at some charts for me for a few days. Ive got half a chubby. Cant understand the angst. Its going to snow lots.