Predictions July 14th-18th

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Claude Cat, Jul 7, 2017.

  1. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    one is a trained meteorologist who generally knows what she's talking about and the other bloke works for mountainwatch and reads one chart.
     
  2. loweee

    loweee Dedicated Member

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    I am sure bom will change. Someone in the know mentioned the am update does not have a lot of work or analysis go into it and tends to mirror the previous one.
     
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  3. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    The Grasshopper has NFI I would not even waste your time reading his posts. He obviously reads up a lot and knows a little bit about 'weather' but at the end of the day waffles on and doesn't really give a decisive answer. Tends to sit on the fence.

    The Frog tends to base his forecasts off one model aka G-Frog-S (GFS) and that's not the most reliable weather model going around.

    Jane would easily be the most qualified of all the forecasters however her forecasts so far this year haven't been as good as previous years but to be fair the past month has been quite 'tricky' or 'complex' and I would expect to see some improvement as the models start to settle over the coming weeks into more traditional winter weather pattern type phases
     
    #53 FourSquare04, Jul 11, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 11, 2017
  4. Bloke

    Bloke Dedicated Member

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    I would add that the BOM seems to not publish forecasts for big weather events until its really really sure. Kinda like an official '4 day rule'
     
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  5. skimax

    skimax Old And Crusty
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    Its even a minimaggeddon
     
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  6. Hermon

    Hermon Dedicated Member

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    Access-G this morning keeps the onslaught going until July 20th. Accumulation over 6-7 days could be good with this one, IMO.
     
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  7. janesweather

    janesweather Dedicated Member

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    Points to note:
    - today's satellite shows the moisture feed for this Friday well, have a look at the water vapour, but the waters off Broome aren't going to provide as much this year
    - the cold air is speeding up on Friday and the gap in between the systems is closing, so less prefrontal for Sunday
    - but it will be hard not to get rain for a while on Friday
    - big numbers depend on cut off low travelling close enough early next week

    Full discussion here: http://www.janebunn.net/snow-forecast/

    Ec numbers are huge, with Charlotte seeing the most (http://www.janebunn.net/charlotte-pass/) but they are all near the highest elevation for each resort and ec hasn't done well with prefrontal.
     
  8. Snowies

    Snowies Dedicated Member

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    Looks like it could be the best week of the season so far, most of the models in general agreement. Jane's forecast doesn't look too unreasonable - with decent falls on Thurs/Fri and again Sun/Mon/Tues - with lighter flurries to lower levels on Sat. Chance of more late next week as well. Initial falls maybe be marginal for snow for both systems (Thurs/Fri) and Sun/Mon/Tues, as a result areas that a low to mid resort may not see continuous snowfall (850TMPs between 0-2 at 1500m).
     
  9. Apiraclubby

    Apiraclubby Active Member

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    2 weeks ago, Jane predicted up to 100cm/ (at least 60cm definite) for the week long storm. Buller got under 10 with a good bit of rain. Grasshopper actually got this right. I don't rate any of the Oz weather predictors but I wouldn't throw Jane up on a pedestal either
     
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  10. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    nobody can get them right every time but Jane's track record speaks for itself and she's an incredibly valuable poster on this forum!
     
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  11. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Lets keep it on topic please.
    I would say that Buller is by far the most difficult mountain to predict snowfall quantities of all the majors.
     
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  12. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN Well-Known Member

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    In defence of those who went big on the last round. Picking the first round of decent fronts for the season is hard work... like being a Collingwood supporter :(
     
  13. Wardy

    Wardy Well-Known Member

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    In defense of @janesweather, part of her 'role' in this industry is to have a dip a fair way out. I'd hazard that most of her readers look for at least a week's lead time in her forecasts, and she needs to cater to that. We all know that a week is a very long time for any weather model. I wouldn't be too critical if she gets it wrong occasionally; occupational hazard. To Jane's credit, she rarely sits on the fence, even a week out.
     
    #63 Wardy, Jul 11, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 11, 2017
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  14. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    That's because Buller does terrible in westerly winds, due to the topography of Buller. And it was westerly basically all last week. And Buller still managed to get 40cm over the past 4 days, and get a whole lot of terrain open (Summit/Howqua area).
     
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  15. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Well back from Buller, so back from observations mode to predictions mode.


    The EC projection of both systems.
    Friday night-Sunday Morning looks good temp wise.
    Friday and Monday could be a bit marginal low down with temps.
    After Monday night, temps look okay.
    Moisture in both systems is excellent on EC.
    [​IMG]
    Falls/Hotham looks to get 70-80cm
    Perisher/Thredbo stands to get about 60-70cm
    I'd say 40-50cm for Buller, looking at the wind direction.
    And 15-30cm for Baw Baw and Lake Mountain.
    And maybe something for the CTs.

    However GFS is not nearly as ambitious as EC.

    Only 20-30cm on the Victorian Alps.
    And 10-20cm on the NSW Alps.
    <sidenote> Yesterday's GFS runs were much better than this, suggesting 40-70cm for the Victorian Alps, much more inline with EC. So best to wait out GFS (apparently G-Frog-S?)</sidenote>

    So from This Friday to Next Wednesday, it looks really good on EC.

    WATL (multi model ensemble) shows about 30-60cm for the Alps, which isn't bad at all, as a combo of all the major models.


    I like it, Jane's Forecast is pretty good IMO.

    Wind directions:
    Friday- NW
    Saturday- W
    Sunday- NW
    Monday- NW turned W
    Tuesday- W turned SW
    Wednesday- S

    Looks like a Perisher/Falls/Hotham kind of system, with Baw Baw and LM getting what is left on that Wednesday. Bullerites like myself won't appreciate the westerlies.
     
    #65 Jellybeans1000, Jul 11, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 11, 2017
  16. Ralph_Plow

    Ralph_Plow Active Member

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    I could think of worse on a pedestal.
     
  17. stratussed

    stratussed Just Registered

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    Good point. People have no problem digging into the "others" but will defend Jane vigorously (as above posts clearly show).

    I like many others here respect Jane's forecasts more than "the others", not to mention she has been a valuable contributor on this forum for many years.

    But we need to put the bias aside - a wrong forecast is a wrong forecast. No defense is required. Just acceptance. (Not that there's anything wrong with that either!)

    :)
     
  18. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Stay on topic
     
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  19. Cuddles

    Cuddles Active Member

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    Amazing to see we have around 60cm at the level we ski at 1850-2000m , so did they not get it correct? Observation will come on Thursday at Spencers. Hard to critic that.
     
  20. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    BOM 4 day already updated and looks juicy IMO:

    [​IMG]

    Loving that trough interaction with NW infeed

    Looks like another Perisher special to start with IMO
     
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  21. Bloke

    Bloke Dedicated Member

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    Juicy AF
     
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  22. skimax

    skimax Old And Crusty
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    Yep and another thing , the snowfalls mentioned are relevant for Australia and particularly the upper levels of the range for NSW ,
     
  23. Stephen James Allen

    Stephen James Allen Active Member

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    Deja vu!
     
  24. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage
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    Prescient!
     
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  25. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    stay on topic
     
  26. Mister Tee on snow shoes

    Mister Tee on snow shoes Dedicated Member

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    I am going up the NW spur at Mt F.Top on Monday, solo . Have ice axe , will travel. I shall report back.It looks like the snow pegs and the snow shoes will get some use.
     
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  27. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    Friday night could deliver the goods for the NSW resorts. 20cms ?
     
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  28. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    As long as the cold air can catch up quickly enough we could be looking at some serious dumpage especially at higher elevations. BOM NSW currently going for snow above 1400m for Friday which is a very positive sign at this stage and would severely limit the amount of pre-frontal, but it's still 3 days away - fingers crossed.....
     
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  29. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    Easily 20cm mate, I'd be leaning more towards 30cm+ for the day/night totals
     
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  30. blueandwhite

    blueandwhite Active Member

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    Have been watching this thread with keen interest and learning a lot as usual. Taking my family up to Falls/Hotham area for 3 weeks leaving Thursday, which seems like good timing for once! Was thinking of stopping in at Buller on Friday on the way up but a bit concerned about windspeeds being a bit too much for the enjoyment of my young kids to be honest. Would anyone care to give me a prediction on the sort of wind conditions this system is likely to bring with it through Friday? The forecast windspeeds have been jumping around quite a lot as we get closer to the event although they look pretty strong in most forecasts.
     
  31. glengary

    glengary Well-Known Member
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    Best looking cold fronts all year, better than decaying troughs.
     
  32. glengary

    glengary Well-Known Member
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  33. Ludaning

    Ludaning Active Member

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    I arrive Perisher next Wednesday. Sounds like good timing. :)
     
  34. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    GFS agrees. Although signs of ridging.
     
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  35. glengary

    glengary Well-Known Member
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    Old chops might get a dusting
     
  36. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    More than a dusting.
     
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  37. Warlock_01

    Warlock_01 Active Member

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    Bom going for snow above 800m in Vic for Friday. Temps looking reasonable also.
     
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  38. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

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    I start my season on the 22/7 and go on till mid September before heading across the ditch for a couple of weeks. Cant really claim good timing though.

    In Jane We Trust .........mostly. Weather forecasting is an inexact science based on evidential and statistical probability for the most part , well that's my opinion on it. Of the "commercial " forecasters Jane is up there with the best. Some of the people on here are pretty decent at it as well and it is in the information and interpretations of these people that we must trust because they know more than we do. I know I have said this before but kudos and bravo to you. However if anyone ever gets the weather correct all the time then I only have 1 question for them...........what are the Lotto numbers for next week ? Surely an easier thing to forecast than long range weather. :thumbs::thumbs::thumbs::thumbs:

    Oh a prediction .........snow will fall and accumulate and we will have fun on it ..........30 - 50 cms by the end date but more would be appreciated.
     
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  39. glengary

    glengary Well-Known Member
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    I have been a weather tragic for over 60 years and totally agree. Oh yeah, 60-70 above 1800, 20-60 below.
     
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  40. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Very much doubt it. Temperatures are quite marginal for the Victorian Alps, until about mid afternoon. Perhaps 1000m 10pm.
     
  41. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

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    If it works out then the top end of my place will get some white stuff . might go for a warm up skate on the old rockhoppers.
     
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  42. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    A handy ingredient to have in the mix. Vapour transport at 700 hPa to feed the plumes approaching and forming over the alps
     
    #92 Kletterer, Jul 11, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 11, 2017
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  43. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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  44. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Ripe. If this plot holds we could see 30 +cm from 14th alone IMO.
     
  45. Ludaning

    Ludaning Active Member

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    I didn't time it well the weather did.
     
  46. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN Well-Known Member

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    #minty forecast
     
  47. Kappy

    Kappy Well-Known Member

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    Let it please be, let it please be.... please dear lord, let it please be true! I predict that on arrival to Jindy on Sat for annual 2 week hoorah, getting a fire going and watching the odd sloppy flake or ice ball possibly falling outside and constantly checking live cams & obs from the top deck.
     
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  48. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Quite likely something will greet you.
     
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  49. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    EC has come to the party on the 17th as well now.
    14th:
    [​IMG]
    17th
    [​IMG]

    The 20th looks special too IMO
     
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  50. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    CMC and GEFS very similar on Bulk Wind. Substantialy more pronounced than our last systems. Looking good on most models/ ensembles IMO. Hope it sticks.
     
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