Predictions July 14th-18th

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Claude Cat, Jul 7, 2017.

  1. stridercdh

    stridercdh Active Member

    Joined:
    May 15, 2011
    Messages:
    508
    Likes Received:
    125
    My concerns exactly.
     
  2. stridercdh

    stridercdh Active Member

    Joined:
    May 15, 2011
    Messages:
    508
    Likes Received:
    125
    I do read the predictions thread, bro! However, the actual weather up to now has been a let down compared to that predicted. Hence my pessimism.
     
    #452 stridercdh, Jul 18, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 18, 2017
  3. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 6, 2013
    Messages:
    309
    Likes Received:
    354
    Sounds like a lot of people sucked on the 1.7m ye/naaaaah sauce bottle for this event.
     
  4. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2001
    Messages:
    4,422
    Likes Received:
    1,381
    These cut off systems are extremely hard to predict and given the way systems have played out so far, people have been VERY bullish this time around for both reasons stated and that my friend has been a very wise decision IMO
     
  5. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 7, 2004
    Messages:
    16,733
    Likes Received:
    6,557
    We seem to be missing the fact that it did snow last night up high. Khancoban says around 7mm overnight so 10cm up high is probably what fell - just not showing lower down. Not a good result below about 1900m but the smoother and more filled in it gets up high to more will blow in when it gets colder today.

    Seems to be snowing steadily at Merrits now and temp is -2 at top of Thredbo. So from here on we are looking good. No huge blobs of cloud on the sat pic but being a cutoff we will get some recirculated moisture.
     
    climberman, Mctavish, nfip and 2 others like this.
  6. Snowies

    Snowies Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Aug 2, 2000
    Messages:
    4,589
    Likes Received:
    7
    A wise decision to be bullish when these systems are extremely hard to predict? I'm not sure I understand your reply? I would have thought erring on the side of caution would be smarter if the forecast is hard to make.
     
  7. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 7, 2004
    Messages:
    16,733
    Likes Received:
    6,557
    Definitely - but much less sexy than calling for 50cm+.

    Don't let numbers get you down. There is a base and there is fresh snow falling. If you want to ski fresh snow jump in the car now and get down there. You will forget about numbers once you are skiing fresh snow, whether its 10cm or 20cm or 30cm. And once its 20cm or more it all feels the same here anyway. I know where i'd be if i didn't have any commitments today.
     
  8. rocketboy

    rocketboy Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2010
    Messages:
    1,558
    Likes Received:
    1,245
    Looking at earth.null - you can see the cold air is simply not there. It should start to reach NSW resorts later this afternoon.

    https://earth.nullschool.net/#curre...overlay=temp/orthographic=-213.53,-39.08,3000

    This is the future in realtime evidence. The positive PDO (warm) phase we are now in for the next 10+ years will only further underscore the marginal nature of winter in Australia going forward.

    Both this and the previous cutoff formed south of WA and at no point were either centred over Kalgoorlie where the wet dog usually forms. Morover this and the previous cutoff formed over lower than normal SST. This should be a solid event - and while it might yet deliver it sure ain't exciting at this point.
     
    Mctavish likes this.
  9. telecrag

    telecrag Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 12, 2007
    Messages:
    18,390
    Likes Received:
    13,679
    Fake news, alternate facts!

    IMO models have struggled more in the last 2-3 years, than in the 4-5 before that. But compared to information available when I was young....predicting is that, still. So complaining that things dont go as predicted is an oxy?
     
    stansi likes this.
  10. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    13,817
    Likes Received:
    5,416
    This.
    Don't listen to the hype.
    Has looked like a foot/30 ish cm event for 4 days imo.
    Wind still wnw in Adelaide gives an idea of current state of event.
    The 'hook' hasnt been predicted to be optimal for massive falls for days. Still. It should deliver a good fall. The best of the season so far.
     
  11. rocketboy

    rocketboy Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2010
    Messages:
    1,558
    Likes Received:
    1,245
    IMO - it's more than that. the airflows. precips are all there pretty much on the money in the forecasts. it's the temps that are the problem. especially the uppers.

    but PV BOM just went neg for the first time since yesterday arvo - so it all might turn on a dime yet ...
     
  12. Hermon

    Hermon Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2008
    Messages:
    1,459
    Likes Received:
    310
    Looking good for this evening IMO, but not huge falls. 40cm+ falls were never going to happen this year given the current SST situation. There could be sting in the tail on Thursday.
     
  13. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2005
    Messages:
    63,956
    Likes Received:
    16,588
    You have to remember that for every bloke going on about 50cents or 2 feet out of this system, there were at least double that who were less bullish. But you look past those 'minimal' predictions when you read through the thread, cos you're biased and looking for the big numbers. That's why we remember yeahnah going for 1.7m.
     
  14. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2005
    Messages:
    63,956
    Likes Received:
    16,588
    You really cant make that prediction based on 2 systems and expect to be taken seriously.
     
  15. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2005
    Messages:
    63,956
    Likes Received:
    16,588
    Sometimes more information is worse. The dissection of models by some people is crazy, you're thinking too much and too hard about it, and it's not a concrete science in the first place.
     
    nfip, dawooduck, telecrag and 2 others like this.
  16. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 7, 2004
    Messages:
    16,733
    Likes Received:
    6,557
    I'd still be very surprised if the Spencers Creek depth does not increase by 50cm or more by the end of this week.
     
    Vermillion, skiingtk and The Plowking like this.
  17. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
    Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    90,618
    Likes Received:
    26,976
    Stay on topic.
     
    DiscoStuAU likes this.
  18. CarveMan

    CarveMan aussieskier.com
    Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    May 12, 2000
    Messages:
    66,304
    Likes Received:
    20,487
    Confirmation bias. We unconsciously prioritise the information we consume that conforms to our beliefs, or in this case that we want to happen.
     
  19. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2005
    Messages:
    63,956
    Likes Received:
    16,588
    Nobody is stopping scrolling to read someone predicting 10-15cm, but put down 50cms and all of a sudden the eyeballs light up.
     
  20. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    13,817
    Likes Received:
    5,416
    Or glaze over ;)
     
    skidazza and mick chopps like this.
  21. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,358
    Likes Received:
    765
    Aspects and wind affect a lot of these falls. Now 50 cm at the bottom of Thredbo is a seriously good dump but not going to happen today. Maybe 10 cm. But the base at Spencers will go up 50 cm due to wind load.

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
    Mctavish likes this.
  22. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,358
    Likes Received:
    765
    But these winds will cause any snow on exposed SE aspects on the main range to be blown away on Thursday.

    [​IMG]
     
  23. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    13,817
    Likes Received:
    5,416
    ***by away you mean leeward of said areas :)
     
  24. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2001
    Messages:
    4,422
    Likes Received:
    1,381
    BOM 4 day out already - looks 'unstable' in the SE and bombing out towards NZ - IMO

    [​IMG]
     
    SAsurfa likes this.
  25. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Feb 11, 2005
    Messages:
    949
    Likes Received:
    1,022
    Not really bombing, needs to drop 24hPa in 24 hours, only gets half that.
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  26. rocketboy

    rocketboy Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2010
    Messages:
    1,558
    Likes Received:
    1,245
    It's also based on what happened last year. It's an observation of what is happening with back to back marginal seasons where there were a lot of rain events and only a limited amount of good snow falls. The warm PDO phase is not going to be working in our favour anytime soon. The rest of this season will be very interesting to watch play out. It's the middle of July - the coldest part of the year and we are seeing a lot of warm temps and marginal results. There has not been a single low level snow event in surrounding Jindy region this season. Anyway best to continue this in either the BBQ or the season 2017 thread.
     
    Tanuki likes this.
  27. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 7, 2004
    Messages:
    16,733
    Likes Received:
    6,557
    Thank fark for that. Usually those sloppy SE ECL jobby's.

    Good chance on thursday when this one goes southerly.
     
  28. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,358
    Likes Received:
    765
    Obviously I am trying to secure first tracks on a number on prominent peaks if I can get my fat butt up there. :thumbs:
     
  29. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,358
    Likes Received:
    765
    Hmm the western faces love these sloppy ECL's, just saying.
     
  30. stridercdh

    stridercdh Active Member

    Joined:
    May 15, 2011
    Messages:
    508
    Likes Received:
    125
    How low is the snow lowering overnight? And can we expect much more snow for Vic resorts, esp. Buller?
     
  31. Undies

    Undies Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    May 15, 2002
    Messages:
    16,528
    Likes Received:
    6,745
    Anyone care to guess whether there will be snow up to bullocks flat? Am wondering which car to take for the morning.

    Thanks!
     
  32. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    10,432
    Likes Received:
    6,823
    AXS still looking at 30 ish...
    NSW legacy of the Westerly and slow tracking of the system for now.
    [​IMG]
     
    Edgecrusher and 7wombathead like this.
  33. stridercdh

    stridercdh Active Member

    Joined:
    May 15, 2011
    Messages:
    508
    Likes Received:
    125
    And for Victoria?
     
  34. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    10,432
    Likes Received:
    6,823
    15-20 , it's on the same image , see the light green.
     
  35. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    48,627
    Likes Received:
    24,946
    Small yellow section around Hoth/Falls.
    Another 20cm from this would be a great result.
     
    nfip likes this.
  36. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    10,432
    Likes Received:
    6,823
    stridercdh likes this.
  37. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    48,627
    Likes Received:
    24,946
    Stirling will be sweet tmrw mate. They reported 50cm base up top, there'll be double that in the bowl.
    Bluff Spur cam is green light.
     
    The Plowking likes this.
  38. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    10,432
    Likes Received:
    6,823
    yes AXS seems to have it pushing thru a lot quicker than it's been moving today which I am unsure.
    Others here with more knowledge may have an explanation.
    I was thinking Vic will get the goodies later on when wind goes further around to the S.
     
  39. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    48,627
    Likes Received:
    24,946
    Buller/Stirling will, do okay from both NW and SW. Bawbs mostly SW . Hoth/Falls are basically NW/W mountains only.
     
    stridercdh likes this.
  40. stridercdh

    stridercdh Active Member

    Joined:
    May 15, 2011
    Messages:
    508
    Likes Received:
    125
  41. SnowBound

    SnowBound Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2007
    Messages:
    1,051
    Likes Received:
    759
    Wow based on that, we could get some love here in Blackheath. A passing shower perhaps? #prayfordusting
     
  42. stridercdh

    stridercdh Active Member

    Joined:
    May 15, 2011
    Messages:
    508
    Likes Received:
    125
    That sounds great. I was wondering whether there will be skiable snow from TBJ, i.e. how far will I have to walk?
     
  43. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    48,627
    Likes Received:
    24,946
    No idea about that. My guess would be you'd be able to skin from TBJ, if the flurries down there today are anything to go by.
     
    stridercdh likes this.
  44. rocketboy

    rocketboy Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2010
    Messages:
    1,558
    Likes Received:
    1,245
    ... better be chains or I want my money back ... with any luck it'll be 2 days of chains to bullocks - though rare to see them needed after 8-9am - unless it's falling out of the sky. Can sometimes need chains after 5ish pm if it's snowing heavily down low.
     
    Undies and SMSkier like this.
  45. Fancy_Pants

    Fancy_Pants Active Member

    Joined:
    Jan 29, 2010
    Messages:
    44
    Likes Received:
    14
    BOM has SW hitting Vicco tomorrow morning. Will there still be any moisture left?
     
  46. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    48,627
    Likes Received:
    24,946
    Yes
     
  47. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    13,817
    Likes Received:
    5,416
    *for some areas ;)
     
    mick chopps likes this.
  48. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    48,627
    Likes Received:
    24,946
    the usual areas that fair okay in a SW. which is the usual caveat on any of these things.
     
    The Plowking likes this.
  49. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    13,817
    Likes Received:
    5,416
    Yup. We need to spell it out in these social media days of instant gratification
     
    1st_King_of_QBN and mick chopps like this.
  50. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
    Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    90,618
    Likes Received:
    26,976
    Stay on topic