Japanese snow season 2016-17

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Sandy, Nov 23, 2016.

  1.  
    Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Season Pass Gold

    But before last week, they were coming in every 4 days or so... Looks more like stretching out to 7 days towards the end of the year.
    Long range has got Tokyo snow written all over it on the 27th!!! It's two weeks out though.
     
  2.  
    seekingpow

    seekingpow Dedicated Member

    Edgy from last season - feels like establishment of sustained lake effect is coming in later last few years?
     
  3.  
    smitty484

    smitty484 Old And Crusty Season Pass Gold

    Honestly, wandering lows aren't even that uncommon in Japan during winter.
     
    :thumbs: TDS likes this.
  4.  
    Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Season Pass Gold

    No!! You forget too easily ;) The previous season was an incredible season, huge falls of snow, and very early as well. The previous season was also a bit early.
     
  5.  
    ojisan

    ojisan Part of the Furniture Season Pass Gold

    Geez.... it's only December :)
     
    :thumbs: Froff Life likes this.
  6.  
    seekingpow

    seekingpow Dedicated Member

    Just don't
     
  7.  
    gibbsy

    gibbsy Active Member

    Yes, and even that year there were a couple of weird wandering low rain then snow events the 3rd week of Jan and 1st week of Feb.
     
    :thumbs: seekingpow likes this.
  8.  
    Chondro

    Chondro Dedicated Member Season Pass Gold

    Arriving monday, seems to dry up until thursday at least! dang
     
  9.  
    seekingpow

    seekingpow Dedicated Member

    yeah been on the cards for a bit - weather is still 'messy'

    I am hoping there are glimpses of another step down towards winter from Christmas eve - hints are on GFS charts
     
    :thumbs: Chondro likes this.
  10.  
    Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Heavy rain in Yokohama & Tokyo overnight. Luckily, it was lighter north of the mountains in central Japan, so not huge damage done to the fragile early season cover.... the weekend snow has packed down though, which is good for the base.

    Temperatures are now dropping towards freezing in Niigata/Nagano.
     
  11.  
    Zimboo

    Zimboo Addicted Member

    TJ (whitehorse hotel) Hakuba facebook reporting 20cm from mid mountain. Also reported 5-10cms yesterday, so not bad at all for Hakuba.
     
  12.  
    Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Which mountain do you mean? Happo or Tsugaike?

    No snow at the bottom of either, which is still normal for the first half of December.
     
  13.  
    Zimboo

    Zimboo Addicted Member

    According to the report he didn't say which mountain. ;)
    https://www.facebook.com/hakuba1/
     
  14.  
    smackies

    smackies Addicted Member

    And January. Well, in 2016 anyway.
     
  15.  
    Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Ok, the first photo(today) is Hakuba 47. Yesterday's is at the bottom of Happo, but would have been washed out by rain overnight.
     
  16.  
    Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Season Pass Gold

    I was at Hakuba for a week, from January 13th, and there was definitely top to bottom snow there. A little thin at the bottom though.
     
  17.  
    smackies

    smackies Addicted Member

    I was also there.

    I remember the sadness well.
     
    :thumbs: smitty484 likes this.
  18.  
    Crispy013

    Crispy013 Dedicated Member

    Slowly getting there....

    Yuzawa: 2.2C (340m)
    Sekiyama: 2.6C (350m)
    Nozawa Onsen: 1.8C (576m)
    Hakuba: 2.1C (703m)
     
  19.  
    Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Much better!!! :D

    @Crispy013, I've changed the "-" to ":" so you don't get the impression it's minus degrees. Do you want me to do the same to your original post, or will you do that?
     
  20.  
    Crispy013

    Crispy013 Dedicated Member

    Whoops! I can see the confusion it may cause. I've lost my editing rights, so might have to be an admin job :rolleyes:
     
  21.  
    Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Ok, no worries!! :D
     
  22.  
    Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Season Pass Gold

    IMO, the central Japan resorts will go below freezing at the bottom, about early/mid afternoon. Then snow should persist until Saturday.
    Not on the JMA forecast, but there's a good chance of snow in Tokyo sometime around Thursday/Friday!!!! :D
     
  23.  
    Mazzy89

    Mazzy89 Active Member

    Hands down, this is the best forum. You guys are legends. Loving the info.
     
    :thumbs: Jellybeans1000 likes this.
  24.  
    smitty484

    smitty484 Old And Crusty Season Pass Gold

    Same day, same valley, two different reports. Which one seems more objective?

    You have looked outside and rolled back over. 11am comes along and all of a sudden you see the pics of faceshots galore. Which person are you today? Fresh snow on the cams mid mountain and plenty of it fell last night. Difficult to say how much but lets say at least 20cms to get you movin. Happo is looking good but Goryu, 47 and Tsugaike will satisfy too. Pics to come :)

    warm temps for the last 24 hours. About 18mm of rain measured at valley bottom. This might translate into 20-30cm new snow around 2000m. Maybe rain fell down to 1800m yesterday, then turning to snow down to 1600m overnight for perhaps 10cm. Just starting to cool now, and snow lightly at 800m. So far we have a poor skiing warm December with very little snow below treeline (1900m), but reasonable amounts in the upper alpine. Good news; the next few days will look and feel like winter again. But the longer term forecast (which is always hard to trust) indicates more warm weather coming around the 20th-23rd.
     
    :thumbs: seekingpow likes this.
  25.  
    Froff Life

    Froff Life Dedicated Member Season Pass Gold

    I know which one I would choose to believe after a few days.
    Has the first report really embellished the snowfall figure by 100%??
     
  26.  
    seekingpow

    seekingpow Dedicated Member

    Damian's reporting always sounds so negative - but he's honest
     
  27.  
    seekingpow

    seekingpow Dedicated Member

    Latest GFS Zulu is out - still a wait for a classic big dump IMO
     
  28.  
    Mazzy89

    Mazzy89 Active Member

    Would you guys say it's too early days to worry about Hokkaidos' interestingly slow start?
     
  29.  
    ojisan

    ojisan Part of the Furniture Season Pass Gold

    Slow start?
     
    :thumbs: Annitowa likes this.
  30.  
    seekingpow

    seekingpow Dedicated Member

    Too early, it's actually not that slow. I got burned in Honshu last season so I'm looking forward to big dumps kicking in but currently we are not seeing an outlier in terms of snowfall. Lots of top-ups in the charts for coastal Hokkaido IMO
     
  31.  
    Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Season Pass Gold

    ROFLLOLLOL
     
  32.  
    Mazzy89

    Mazzy89 Active Member

    Hmm. I suppose it isn't slow.. but in comparison to the norm? I guess I'm going off by 2014/15 season!!
     
  33.  
    Mazzy89

    Mazzy89 Active Member

    I know I know!! Inexperienced haha. Only my 3rd year and every year I anticipate more then what I should! Scarred by Australian ski fields.
     
  34.  
    Mazzy89

    Mazzy89 Active Member

    Positive news!! Honshu.. poor bugger. It was a tough season!
     
  35.  
    seekingpow

    seekingpow Dedicated Member

    a 50cm base depth delta at this time of year I would say you could argue is within the margin of error given the amount of snow you can get using Niseko as a yard stick - one big dump can make the difference this time of year
    Now: http://www.snowjapan.com/japan-daily-snow-weather-reports/Niseko-Now

    Then: http://www.snowjapan.com/japan-daily-snow-weather-reports/Niseko-Now/14th-December-2014
     
    :thumbs: Mazzy89 likes this.
  36.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    Snow accumulation in the next 10 days GFS, GEM and EC
    Central Honshu - GEM 65cm, EC 100cm and GFS 85cm
    Hokkaido - GEM 30cm, EC 50cm and GFS 55cm
    This should be a great leadup to Christmas.
     
    :thumbs: Mazzy89 likes this.
  37.  
    Mazzy89

    Mazzy89 Active Member

  38.  
    Mazzy89

    Mazzy89 Active Member

    So we still await some epic biblical falls in Hokkaido?
     
  39.  
    Froff Life

    Froff Life Dedicated Member Season Pass Gold

    I get so excited when I see the first 'BIBLICAL' in Sandy's predictions LOL
     
    :thumbs: dr80, Crispy013 and Mazzy89 like this.
  40.  
    Mazzy89

    Mazzy89 Active Member

    It's heart warming!!!
     
    :thumbs: Froff Life likes this.
  41.  
    Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Season Pass Gold

    :thumbs: PMG likes this.
  42.  
    seekingpow

    seekingpow Dedicated Member

    Hazard a stab for furano/tomamu based on that?
     
  43.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    Maybe, but quite biblical in Central Honshu.
     
  44.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    30-35cm
     
  45.  
    Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Are you saying it's been Biblical in central Honshu already?
     
  46.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    No, the forecast for the next 16 days.
     
  47.  
    Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Season Pass Gold

    My definition of Biblical is 150cm+ in 3-4 days. ;)
     
    :thumbs: dr80 likes this.
  48.  
    Dumph

    Dumph Active Member

    I'm a pretty poor amateur but when I look at the charts over the next week or two I keep seeing big warm, wet fronts coming in. Must be reading these wrong?
     
  49.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    Yes, just look for the N or NW wind over Central Honshu.
     
    :thumbs: Dumph likes this.
  50.  
    bullet

    bullet Well-Known Member

    Looks like heavy snow in Yuzawa town again:thumbs: