Japanese snow season 2016-17

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Sandy, Nov 23, 2016.

  1.  
    woggybot

    woggybot Dedicated Member

    Love how we can see the flakes :D :D
     
  2.  
    Crispy013

    Crispy013 Dedicated Member

    Wednesday 14th looking good for some semi biblical falls...snow forecast progged 30 cents for most Hakuba resorts...might get a cheeky 50cm+ out it. Wet on Tuesday though as the low tracks over Honshu.
     
    :thumbs: Annitowa likes this.
  3.  
    Crispy013

    Crispy013 Dedicated Member

    Looks like Yuzawa getting smashed....Tsunan +72cm in last 2 days.
     
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  4.  
    skichanger

    skichanger Dedicated Member Season Pass Gold

    Went to Madarao today to clear snow. Snow blower buried. Would have had at least 70cm snow if not more. The almost buried benches in the pics are about 90cm high.
    [​IMG]
     
  5.  
    Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Season Pass Gold

    :thumbs:
    Like I said, Tsunan gets huge amounts of snow, and this is no exception !!!! :D
     
  6.  
    PMG

    PMG Dedicated Member Season Pass Gold

    Looking at GFS Thursday, Friday, Saturday looking good at this stage. [​IMG]
     
  7.  
    Nozawaman

    Nozawaman Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Groomers doing first runs of the season .



    Depth of balcony this afternoon .

    [​IMG]
     
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  8.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    Positive looking future.... Not implying any accuracy.
    http://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com.au/
     
    :thumbs: Ramenman likes this.
  9.  
    seekingpow

    seekingpow Dedicated Member

  10.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    Yeah, pretty poor quality layout ATM
    Will be posting more stuff.
     
    Last edited: Dec 12, 2016
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  11.  
    Nozawaman

    Nozawaman Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    The dust has settled here now and the sun is ready to shine today , I can see groomers up the top of the mountain, and hopefully they will come back to finish Paradise today (they only drove over it and didn't use any fans) .
    All I can say is WOW , we have gone from zero to ready with one system passing through the slopes look a treat and skiing yesterday was really something special , when do you get to pick fresh lines every run and only see one other group all day ?
    I reckon we had a metre at 1100mtrs over two days . Still a long way to go before any off piste starts happening , but a great start .

    [​IMG]
     
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  12.  
    Chondro

    Chondro Dedicated Member Season Pass Gold

    Seems to be looking warm early next week for hokkaido?
     
  13.  
    Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Season Pass Gold

    I don't think Nozawa got a dump like this at ANY STAGE last season. Looks like a normal winter will resume after last year's poor showing, and we can look forward to the "switch flicking" in the next couple of weeks.
     
  14.  
    Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Season Pass Gold

    The forecasts show an unusually large high, with warm winds on the western flank, followed by a low pressure trough.
    The switch has not flicked yet!
     
    :thumbs: Chondro likes this.
  15.  
    Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Season Pass Gold

    If you post stuff from your own blog, can you say it's your own blog please? When I first read that, I thought you were quoting from a separate independent source.
     
    :thumbs: smitty484 likes this.
  16.  
    Ramenman

    Ramenman Well-Known Member

    It's a relatively good season start so far, if not great.

    Left = Average snowdepth on December 11th(in the village or the downtown, not on the ski slopes)

    Right =Snowdepth as of yesterday

    Furano = 19cm / 38cm

    Niseko (Kutchan) = 41cm / 39cm

    Myoko (Sekiyama) = 17cm / 46cm

    Nozawa Onsen = 18cm / 49cm

    Sukayu (Hakkoda) = 79cm / 158cm
     
  17.  
    Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Source?
     
  18.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    I will, but I am interested to know why?
     
  19.  
    Ramenman

    Ramenman Well-Known Member

    :thumbs: Sandy and PMG like this.
  20.  
    seekingpow

    seekingpow Dedicated Member

    I'm still not seeing a switch flick - hokkaido is still very much only getting snow driven by rogue lows
     
  21.  
    Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Season Pass Gold

    It's got more to do with consistency. I didn't bother to ask you about it, but @seekingpow did. People like to know where the source info comes from, so they can investigate it themselves, and maybe learn more about it. Sources can also be added to the first post.

    Every additional question posters don't have to ask, means that it is less clogged up. e.g. Ramenman posted some data, but didn't quote the source.... so it required and extra two posts for that source info.
     
  22.  
    Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Yep!!
     
  23.  
    seekingpow

    seekingpow Dedicated Member

    GFS shows a massive pineapple next week at this stage
     
  24.  
    seekingpow

    seekingpow Dedicated Member

    Some of the pundits on social media are claiming snow forecast for Hokkaido all week - I cannot see where they are getting that from - after a fast moving system tomorrow, I cannot see much
     
  25.  
    Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Never listen!!! ;)
     
  26.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    Looks dry on 18 and 19 Dec, before r**n on 20 and 21 Dec according to GFS. For Hokkaido.
     
  27.  
    Ramenman

    Ramenman Well-Known Member

    I'll add the snowdepth of December 11th of last year (2015)


    Furano = 19cm / 38cm / 18cm

    Niseko (Kutchan) = 41cm / 39cm / 15cm

    Myoko (Sekiyama) = 17cm / 46cm / 0cm

    Nozawa Onsen = 18cm / 49cm / 0cm

    Sukayu (Hakkoda) = 79cm / 158cm / 53cm
     
  28.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    Last year was 2015
     
  29.  
    Ramenman

    Ramenman Well-Known Member

    Yes, sorry, it's just a typo:p
     
  30.  
    seekingpow

    seekingpow Dedicated Member

    Yeah agree - near term outlook for hokkaido not overly thrilling - still getting messy weather
     
  31.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    Systems that I stated last night after Christmas look better than current conditions. Will have to wait for some more model runs though.
     
  32.  
    seekingpow

    seekingpow Dedicated Member

    Are you able to cross ref some models? It's a very long way out - I am just not seeing a firm pattern
     
  33.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    @seekingpow here is GFS (first time with snow in run, so wait a few runs), EC Monthly Control (new data tomorrow) and CFS. All picture some sort of N or NW wind. For 26-27 Dec.
     
    :thumbs: seekingpow likes this.
  34.  
    smitty484

    smitty484 Old And Crusty Season Pass Gold

    14th - 17th looking nice, anything after that is just fantasy at the moment.
     
    :thumbs: seekingpow likes this.
  35.  
    seekingpow

    seekingpow Dedicated Member

    agreed
     
  36.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    14th-17th does looks nice, can't say I agree with your second statement though.
     
  37.  
    Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Yeah, that's the thing.... this time of year is unstable, because we haven't switch to winter yet. Once the winter patterns are established, you can forecast much further out because of the stability.
     
  38.  
    Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Season Pass Gold

    I've updated the links on the first page.
     
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  39.  
    Brad Filmer

    Brad Filmer Active Member

    When did the switch flick last year?
    We were in Nozawa last year on Xmas Day before which there was nothing and after it snowed most days for the next week at least?
    Was that considered the flick?
     
  40.  
    Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Season Pass Gold

    You can get dumps of snow, but for much of central Japan, the switch never really flicked last year. Nozawa didn't iirc.
     
  41.  
    smitty484

    smitty484 Old And Crusty Season Pass Gold

    its best to not talk about last year
     
  42.  
    seekingpow

    seekingpow Dedicated Member

    Something interesting potentially still brewing on gfs towards Christmas
     
    :thumbs: Jellybeans1000 likes this.
  43.  
    Crispy013

    Crispy013 Dedicated Member

    What's more interesting is what's coming Wed-Fri
     
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  44.  
    seekingpow

    seekingpow Dedicated Member

    I'm Hokkaido biased this year :p
    But yes Honshu will clean up this week. pre frontal will set a great base as well
     
  45.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    It should snow on Saturday too
     
  46.  
    seekingpow

    seekingpow Dedicated Member

    Japan is a big place - I think with regards to predictions like "it's going to...." need to be prefaced with place as well as time
     
    :thumbs: smitty484 likes this.
  47.  
    Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Season Pass Gold

    This ^^
     
  48.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    Honshu, in regards to my previous comment.
     
    :thumbs: seekingpow likes this.
  49.  
    Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Season Pass Gold

    There are snow resorts from Tottori in the south to Aomori in the north, around 1000km. That's why I usually say something like "central Japan" which includes resorts in Gifu, Nagano, Niigata.
     
    :thumbs: smitty484 likes this.
  50.  
    seekingpow

    seekingpow Dedicated Member

    GFS still has a lot of wandering lows out to new years - are we headed for another unconventional season?????????????????????