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Discussion in 'Weather' started by Sandy, Nov 23, 2016.
Love how we can see the flakes
Wednesday 14th looking good for some semi biblical falls...snow forecast progged 30 cents for most Hakuba resorts...might get a cheeky 50cm+ out it. Wet on Tuesday though as the low tracks over Honshu.
Looks like Yuzawa getting smashed....Tsunan +72cm in last 2 days.
Went to Madarao today to clear snow. Snow blower buried. Would have had at least 70cm snow if not more. The almost buried benches in the pics are about 90cm high.
Like I said, Tsunan gets huge amounts of snow, and this is no exception !!!!
Looking at GFS Thursday, Friday, Saturday looking good at this stage.
Groomers doing first runs of the season .
Depth of balcony this afternoon .
Positive looking future.... Not implying any accuracy.
Is this your blog?
Yeah, pretty poor quality layout ATM
Will be posting more stuff.
The dust has settled here now and the sun is ready to shine today , I can see groomers up the top of the mountain, and hopefully they will come back to finish Paradise today (they only drove over it and didn't use any fans) .
All I can say is WOW , we have gone from zero to ready with one system passing through the slopes look a treat and skiing yesterday was really something special , when do you get to pick fresh lines every run and only see one other group all day ?
I reckon we had a metre at 1100mtrs over two days . Still a long way to go before any off piste starts happening , but a great start .
Seems to be looking warm early next week for hokkaido?
I don't think Nozawa got a dump like this at ANY STAGE last season. Looks like a normal winter will resume after last year's poor showing, and we can look forward to the "switch flicking" in the next couple of weeks.
The forecasts show an unusually large high, with warm winds on the western flank, followed by a low pressure trough.
The switch has not flicked yet!
If you post stuff from your own blog, can you say it's your own blog please? When I first read that, I thought you were quoting from a separate independent source.
It's a relatively good season start so far, if not great.
Left = Average snowdepth on December 11th(in the village or the downtown, not on the ski slopes)
Right =Snowdepth as of yesterday
Furano = 19cm / 38cm
Niseko (Kutchan) = 41cm / 39cm
Myoko (Sekiyama) = 17cm / 46cm
Nozawa Onsen = 18cm / 49cm
Sukayu (Hakkoda) = 79cm / 158cm
I will, but I am interested to know why?
This page is quite useful.
I'm still not seeing a switch flick - hokkaido is still very much only getting snow driven by rogue lows
It's got more to do with consistency. I didn't bother to ask you about it, but @seekingpow did. People like to know where the source info comes from, so they can investigate it themselves, and maybe learn more about it. Sources can also be added to the first post.
Every additional question posters don't have to ask, means that it is less clogged up. e.g. Ramenman posted some data, but didn't quote the source.... so it required and extra two posts for that source info.
GFS shows a massive pineapple next week at this stage
Some of the pundits on social media are claiming snow forecast for Hokkaido all week - I cannot see where they are getting that from - after a fast moving system tomorrow, I cannot see much
Looks dry on 18 and 19 Dec, before r**n on 20 and 21 Dec according to GFS. For Hokkaido.
I'll add the snowdepth of December 11th of last year (2015)
Furano = 19cm / 38cm / 18cm
Niseko (Kutchan) = 41cm / 39cm / 15cm
Myoko (Sekiyama) = 17cm / 46cm / 0cm
Nozawa Onsen = 18cm / 49cm / 0cm
Sukayu (Hakkoda) = 79cm / 158cm / 53cm
Last year was 2015
Yes, sorry, it's just a typo
Yeah agree - near term outlook for hokkaido not overly thrilling - still getting messy weather
Systems that I stated last night after Christmas look better than current conditions. Will have to wait for some more model runs though.
Are you able to cross ref some models? It's a very long way out - I am just not seeing a firm pattern
@seekingpow here is GFS (first time with snow in run, so wait a few runs), EC Monthly Control (new data tomorrow) and CFS. All picture some sort of N or NW wind. For 26-27 Dec.
14th - 17th looking nice, anything after that is just fantasy at the moment.
14th-17th does looks nice, can't say I agree with your second statement though.
Yeah, that's the thing.... this time of year is unstable, because we haven't switch to winter yet. Once the winter patterns are established, you can forecast much further out because of the stability.
I've updated the links on the first page.
When did the switch flick last year?
We were in Nozawa last year on Xmas Day before which there was nothing and after it snowed most days for the next week at least?
Was that considered the flick?
You can get dumps of snow, but for much of central Japan, the switch never really flicked last year. Nozawa didn't iirc.
its best to not talk about last year
Something interesting potentially still brewing on gfs towards Christmas
What's more interesting is what's coming Wed-Fri
I'm Hokkaido biased this year
But yes Honshu will clean up this week. pre frontal will set a great base as well
It should snow on Saturday too
Japan is a big place - I think with regards to predictions like "it's going to...." need to be prefaced with place as well as time
Honshu, in regards to my previous comment.
There are snow resorts from Tottori in the south to Aomori in the north, around 1000km. That's why I usually say something like "central Japan" which includes resorts in Gifu, Nagano, Niigata.
GFS still has a lot of wandering lows out to new years - are we headed for another unconventional season?????????????????????