Japanese snow season 2016-17

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Sandy, Nov 23, 2016.

  1.  
    J_T_

    J_T_ Active Member

    Hi guys

    Hoping for some input. We are in Iwate and are day 2 of our stay at Shizukuishi. We transfer tomorrow to Geto Kogen until Saturday.

    Really looking forward to riding 'the king of snow' but it seems Friday (when it is supposed to snow) has 50-60 kph winds forecast.

    I understand that Geto Kogen is subject to wind holds and assume these speeds would qualify?

    Any thoughts on repointing somewhere with good snow forecast but will be open?

    Obviously sticking with the original plan is first prize but we aren't super keen on hanging around waiting for the lifts to open on the one day of fresh snow this trip.

    Thoughts?

    Thanks

    JT
     
  2.  
    PMG

    PMG Dedicated Member Season Pass Gold

    I thought Seki Onsen was the king of snow. Have you got a car?
     
  3.  
    blowfin

    blowfin Active Member

    Seki is the "most deep powder zone" according to their stickers.
     
  4.  
    PMG

    PMG Dedicated Member Season Pass Gold

    Didnt know about their stickers but it has more snow than any other resort in Japan atm.
     
    Last edited: Feb 28, 2017
    :thumbs: blowfin likes this.
  5.  
    Froff Life

    Froff Life Dedicated Member Season Pass Gold

    Thursday night into Friday morning looks to be good for a nice dump fo most of central Honshu, higher elevations only though, with rain lower at first. Changing to snow after midnight I think.
     
  6.  
    jab1966

    jab1966 Active Member

    When we were at geto a couple of weeks ago it was pretty windy and the gondola still ran. Went slow but still ran. At the top you couldn't go round the back though as all blocked off!!
     
  7.  
    PMG

    PMG Dedicated Member Season Pass Gold

    There's nowhere to go that's close anyway.
     
  8.  
    J_T_

    J_T_ Active Member

    Geto's tagline is 'King of Snow' no doubt it was dreamt up by their Marketing Dept.
     
  9.  
    J_T_

    J_T_ Active Member

    Good to know. Fingers crossed the same will apply.
     
  10.  
    J_T_

    J_T_ Active Member

    Yeah we have a day aside for 'transferring' but I think we will take our chances at Geto.
     
  11.  
    PMG

    PMG Dedicated Member Season Pass Gold

    That's what I would do. Everywhere gets windy in Tohoku. It comes with the territory.
     
    :thumbs: J_T_ likes this.
  12.  
    Tonester

    Tonester Dedicated Member Season Pass Gold

    I was there a couple of weeks ago. Windy and wet. I managed one ride up the gondola before they shut it. So only one quad running. Snow was wet and sticky. I ended up getting a wax to improve the slide. That helped, but in the end I pulled the pin. The place was a bit of a ghost town that day. A shame as the off piste looked pretty good. Only had the opportunity for a day. I will return though.
     
  13.  
    J_T_

    J_T_ Active Member

    Yikes that doesn't sound amazing. I am hoping it doesn't come to that.
     
  14.  
    Tonester

    Tonester Dedicated Member Season Pass Gold

    It happens anywhere I guess. I was looking forward to Geto. I had even arranged accommodation near there (at Semi Onsen, which is a great place BTW) so I could maximise my time there.
    On the plus side, they have a great lunch item on the menu.....sashimi salmon on rice with a bowl of miso. Excellent!
    I'll be back...that's for sure.
     
    :thumbs: J_T_ likes this.
  15.  
    Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Season Pass Gold

    I've been reviewing the GFS charts, and for central Japan in the next few days, snow- forecast.com seems to be predicting freeze levels that, IMO, are 500-600m too high.
    E.g. About two weeks ago, similar case at Shiga Kogen, where they predicted freeze level of 2000m, and the freeze level ended up around 1500m.

    Same applies to this time, I think...
    E.g. Nozawa has an expected freeze level of 1050m tonight, and 1450m tomorrow. I'm thinking that the freeze level will be more like 500-800m
     
    :thumbs: Pelm1 likes this.
  16.  
    ju87

    ju87 Just Registered

    I sure hope you're right! Heading to Naeba / Kagura this weekend and the temperature forecasts are not encouraging. Praying for the forecasted snow tomorrow.
     
  17.  
    bondibob

    bondibob Active Member

    I am heading to hakuba tomorrow and pretty pumped about it. I have gone past caring about the snow now. I was unlucky last season at Thredbo so everything here is a bonus!

    Enjoy your trip and I will pray to the snow gods for u!
     
    :thumbs: ju87 likes this.
  18.  
    Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Ok, so Snow-forecast predicted freeze levels for Nozawa Onsen, of 1300m this morning, 1350m this afternoon, and 900m tonight.

    It started snowing at Nozawa about 12:30pm, at 1100m, dry snow not wet. It snowed all afternoon above 1100m, and there was around 7-10cm at the top between 1pm-4pm.
    Coming down to Nozawa town around 4pm, it was rain/sleeting at the bottom of Hikage (660m) and raining at Karasawa (563m).
    I'd say the snow level was around 700m at the time, freeze level probably 800m. Max temperature for Nozawa was 3.8 degrees at 1:28pm. Currently 0.9 degrees and heading down.
    So again, looks like the freeze level predicted by Snow-forecast was 500m too high. Similar freeze levels were predicted across central Japan.
     
  19.  
    Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Snowing heavily down the bottom at Nozawa..... Flakes the size of 20C pieces!!!
     
  20.  
    Annitowa

    Annitowa Active Member Season Pass Gold

    How much is that in Yen?
     
  21.  
    PMG

    PMG Dedicated Member Season Pass Gold

    About 17 at the current exchange rate.
    GFS looks good for early next week. Wouldn't it be nice to be able to just drop everything...
     
    Last edited: Mar 3, 2017
  22.  
    Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Season Pass Gold

    About 500 yen!!!!
     
    :thumbs: Annitowa likes this.
  23.  
    bondibob

    bondibob Active Member

    How is gfs in Japan with accuracy? I pray they are right.

    Just driving to the airport to fly over to hakuba
     
  24.  
    PMG

    PMG Dedicated Member Season Pass Gold

    Haven't been too bad this season overall. Tuesday and Wednesday look great at this stage.
     
  25.  
    Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Season Pass Gold

    My read for next week(Tue-Fri) on GFS, is that the winds will be too far to the west to provide a lot of snow in central Japan, more than 20km from the coast. (see #5)


    5. Too far from the west. Lake effect happens, but the winds rake the coast and don't penetrate far inland. This was a big problem in 2015/16 season. Works better for resorts close to the coast in central Japan, and northern Honshu.
    6. Winds are too slow and variable to generate much lake effect cloud. You can usually tell on the maps, where the isobars curve a lot.
    [​IMG]
    7. Too much loop off low pressure. This generates a northerly, but the air is not very cold, because it loops from the east
    8 Low pressure in the middle of the Sea of Japan brings warm air from the south
     
  26.  
    PMG

    PMG Dedicated Member Season Pass Gold

    You're the expert but still looks fairly cold from Tuesday through to Friday. Doesn't Hakuba do well out of westerlys usually or is just the lack of penetration in this case?
     
  27.  
    seekingpow

    seekingpow Dedicated Member

    Happo and Shiga looking really good this week with a W/NW flow and altitude to dodge marginal temps down low

    Really good for March that is

    A lot less mid season wet events in Honshu this year
     
  28.  
    _gtr

    _gtr Active Member

    Snowing decently in nozawa although it was quite wet
     
  29.  
    PMG

    PMG Dedicated Member Season Pass Gold

    Looking good for bondibob on the Hakuba cams this morning.
     
  30.  
    bondibob

    bondibob Active Member

    Yesterday was great from about 1pm - riding fresh all afternoon.

    The morning started off with a thin layer of snow on top of ice maybe 5-10cm but snowed nicely all day and by afternoon it was great.

    We hit Tsugaike yesterday. The top section though the tress was empty and so good!

    This place is insane. Hooked on hakuba already! No lifts queues at all, great food, n hit the jackpot yesterday with perfect conditions.

    Just waiting to see what the mountains report to see if worth hitting cortina - need at least 30cm to make worth while, I see happo reporting 20cm so good day ahead
     
    Last edited: Mar 8, 2017
    :thumbs: LMB and PMG like this.
  31.  
    bondibob

    bondibob Active Member

    First tracks since 8am at happo! 20cm fresh at least. Pretty good way to start the day
     
  32.  
    Crispy013

    Crispy013 Dedicated Member

    Magic march
     
  33.  
    bondibob

    bondibob Active Member

    To
    totally addicted too POW!
     
  34.  
    Zimboo

    Zimboo Addicted Member

    Just arrived home yesterday from Shiga, Madarao, Myoko (in that order)...................looked at the forecast a couple of days ago and wished we could extend. Oh well, we had 3 magic weeks. Thanks Japan.
     
  35.  
    neck_deep

    neck_deep Active Member

    Cortina reporting 15-20. Maybe they measure in inches these days.
     
  36.  
    seekingpow

    seekingpow Dedicated Member

    Big prefrontal then big snow next weekend?
     
  37.  
    Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Season Pass Gold

    I will be at Shiga Kogen next weekend (3 day long weekend).

    Looks like snow falling from Monday (with big snow on Wednesday), tapering off for the weekend!!!
     
  38.  
    Beerman

    Beerman Dedicated Member Season Pass Silver

    Yeh go on, rub it in..............:(
     
  39.  
    Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Possible snow forecast by JMA, for Tokyo tomorrow morning. Unusual for mid March!!!! :D
     
    :thumbs: Vermillion likes this.
  40.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    [​IMG]
    Gone very quiet. Totals for the next 10 days in the Nagano area around 50-80cm on EC.
     
    :thumbs: neck_deep likes this.
  41.  
    neck_deep

    neck_deep Active Member

    That would be nice. It's been warm as around Hakuba for the last maybe 4 days. Having to stick strictly north facing to get the goods.
     
  42.  
    seekingpow

    seekingpow Dedicated Member

    looks like some good early April snow for Hokkaido on the cards
     
  43.  
    neck_deep

    neck_deep Active Member

    Still raining in Hakuba. Looks like rain up on the slopes from down here as well. It turned to sleet an hour ago but quickly back to rain Hope this freeze level drops or it's gonna be a rough last week.
     
  44.  
    TJ

    TJ Dedicated Member Season Pass Gold

    you missed an ok session yesterday arvo. A lot of vert to consider when its wet outside your accom
     
  45.  
    neck_deep

    neck_deep Active Member

    Ha. Didn't miss just a late starter! Got a few hours of riding something resembling overcooked rice in at happo in the Arvo. Wednesday on the other hand was a massive surprise!
     
    Last edited: Mar 23, 2017
  46.  
    TJ

    TJ Dedicated Member Season Pass Gold

    good to hear. Tsugaike was fun in the trees up high. Sticky mid mountain. Cortina yesterday was awesome. Might be more on the way next week but anything can happen at this time of year.
     
    :thumbs: neck_deep likes this.
  47.  
    neck_deep

    neck_deep Active Member

    Sleeting hard at Hakuba base all arvo. Let's see what the final day of my northern hemisphere winter brings!
     
  48.  
    Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Season Pass Gold

    I'm reasonably confident that it's been snowing in some parts of Tokyo this morning!!!
     
  49.  
    PMG

    PMG Dedicated Member Season Pass Gold

    Naeba and Kagura both reporting another 15 cms this morning. Grandeco reporting 20cm. It's been a great March for Honshu generally.
     
  50.  
    neck_deep

    neck_deep Active Member

    Only about 10-15 at happo and 47. But at this time of year no real complaints. Now bring on the aus season!