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Discussion in 'Weather' started by Sandy, Nov 23, 2016.
Temps in central honshu hovering around freezing point.....just need some moisturrrrrre.
Could get to where I wanted to go , so in holding pattern for another day or so ......
A couple of shots from near the top of Hikage Gondola .
My ski models refused to stand still, so I could only get a couple of secs of todays action at Furano. Now open top to bottom on the Furano side. Had 30+cm over the previous 24 hours, over a hard crusty base as warm and wet with rain and sleet prior to this snowfall. Snow forecast for the rest of the week. Sorry having trouble uploading a shot video from Photobucket.
the cams look tasty this morning... finally Hakuba has got some snow
Looks good for a big dump on Sunday and then again midweek thereafter...............................fingers crossed. Hope it's not too warm midweek - looks marginal?
Switch has been flicked?
a little bit of rain will help solidify the base..
As long as those lows keep tracking through central Japan every 4 days or so, the switch will not flick, IMO.
A large high forecast over Japan around the 17th, with warmer temps in the few days afterwards, may flick the switch after that.
So far we've gotten some cold weather and a little snow after low pressure troughs, but that's not winter weather.
The "flick of the switch" brings, like 80cm+ over a couple of days.
yeah its very early season, some rain is kind of inevitable.
Snow on the ground. More snow Sunday, then later next week. Can't complain.
I flew back in from Beijing yesterday, and had a good view over Nagano Prefecture. Took some photos, but still trying to figure out, which mountains!!!!
They have a layer of snow on the top peaks. You could see snow on resort slopes.
TBH, I think we'll be quietly surprised by the snow that might drop in central Honshu from Friday arvo through to Monday, not just Sunday. Temps pretty good and persistent NW wind direction.
I've been in China for 3 days, so not looking closely for a few days.
I think I may have seen you on one of the webcams during the day....
Too many Dim Sims?Please explain.
They block some websites in China.
Stay on topic.
IMO still not seeing the switch flick sustainably for awhile yet. Few welcome bursts of snow on the way but no classic sustained setups yet
Social media reporting heavy snow in Furano town
Tried to get an arty shot of snow coming down with Xmas tree , but this is the best I could do .
expectations & capabilities @Nozawaman
You should never get the two mixed up hahahaha
Yep, looks like plenty fell yesterday. Just looking at a couple of cams.
Just took these now ......
About 30cm overnight and still coming down.
You could see the cover on the snowmobile when I went to bed last night .
Starting to look good!!!!!
It's still driven by warm/cold cycles, due to low pressure troughs, but if we can get a good cover on the ground this weekend down low, it could kick start the whole thing.
The switch has still not been flicked yet!!!
..... but it's 500% better than last year. i.e. Back to normal?
These are EC Meteograms detailing the next 10 days with Max and Min Temperatures up top and in the graph [Max: Pink, Min: Black]. Precipitation and Snow in cm is down the bottom.
The first is actually for Matsumoto Airport, second Chitose Airport, which is 50km from Sapporo.
If these are from Japanese sources, I dare say they will probably be quite good forecasts for those locations, as the Japanese understand their own precipitation better than sites like snowforecast.com, which never gives good forecasts for central Japan.
However, Matsumoto is not a good indicator for snow around the resort areas in the mountains (e.g. Hakuba, Nozawa, Shiga Kogen, Myoko, Yuzawa, etc) because it's in a rain shadow. There's many a time when I've driven up through Matsumoto, when it's been sunny, and you can see cloud swirling and snow falling up to the north of Nagano City, and off the peaks to the west of Hakuba.
The three places I get my cues from are:
- Takada. About 2km from the sea, elevation 13 metres. This usually has substantial amounts of snow through the season (often 2m+ base). This is a good indicator for: 1 How much precip there is close to the coast. 2. how cold it is at sea level.
This is a good indicator for Myoko & Hakuba, and Nozawa Onsen to some extent.
- Yasuzuka. It is the Niigata foothills, 15km from the sea, and 25km due north of Nozawa Onsen and 35km NW of Yuzawa. Elevation 126m. This is a great indicator for precip a little ways from the coast, with just enough elevation to get substantial snow. You can get a feel for temperature and snow for the eastern Nagano resorts and Niigata
- Tsunan about 30km from the coast, in line with Yasuzuka. 20km on the road from Nozawa Onsen, & 10 km SE of Cupid Valley, 452m elevation. It cops huge amounts of snow.
From JMA weather station sites to 9am:
- Takada, 13m: 4.3 degrees, 16mm precip from midnight. 0cm snow
- Yasuzuka, 126m: 1.3 degrees, 23mm of precip. 0cm snow I'd say it's snowing there, but not settling.
- Tsunan, 452m: -0.5 degrees, 20mm of precip, 16cm snow(+16cm)
Central Japan resort areas:
- Yuzawa, 340m: 0.4 degrees, 27mm of precip. 4cm snow depth.(+4cm)
- Sekiyama(near Myoko), 350m: -0.3 degrees, 17mm of precip. 21cm snow depth.(+21cm)
- Hakuba, 703cm: -1.7 degrees, 2mm of precip. 0cm snow depth.
- Otari (near Cortina), 550m: - degrees, 12mm of precip. 5cm snow depth.(+5cm)
- Nozawa Onsen, 576m: -1.0 degrees, 18.5mm of precip.9 cm snow depth.(+9cm)
Still not freezing on the coast.
Thanks @Sandy . I will see if I can find Meteograms for those places.
Looks to me that Meteograms might be a resource for airport weather. Yasuzaka & Tsunan are tiny places that nobody else would bother with, generally.
Here we go!
Snowing nicely on the cams in hakuba
Rob was stationed on the US base's in japan as a Airforce MET grasshopper for many years,
before he turned to the private sector. He knows Asia like the back of his hand.
And first and foremost he don't use ski forums to feather his own nest or promote JMA.
What does this mean? and who's Rob?
Tokyo and Yokohama have the feeling of winter today..... clear blue sky, fresh northerly breeze, EXCEPT it's no that cold.... about 10 degrees +
This guy. He works at NHK World TV I am pretty sure.
I do like his work and his videos. But what's so bad about ski forums?
If anything, @Sandy knows Japanese snow like the back of his hand.
IMO the longer term outlook looks cooler but not seeing anything particularly enticing. Something brewing around Christmas but too far to prognosticate too much
@Sandy, you willing to make a forecast yet in a flick switch / classic season starting dump?
No, not yet!!!
I'll take what's happening now but I'm ready for the main course
Getting colder and heavier. Radar suggests more to come.
These are freezing level charts from GFS.
14-19 December is looking like 600m in Central Honshu and 200m in Northern Honshu.
23-25 December is looking like 500m in Central Honshu and 200m in Northern Honshu, but let's be patient with this one.
Yes Christmas period looking interesting but needs 10 days to firm up
Sapporo city (the downtown) had more than 50cm snowfall over night(from last night to this morning) . The snowdepth was 11cm at 9pm last night and it's more than 62cm now!
Furano were reporting 40cm in the village mid this morning and still coming down
Dumping again now !!!!!!
From JMA weather station sites to 7am:
- Takada, 13m: 3.6 degrees. 0cm snow
- Yasuzuka, 126m: 0.1 degrees, 23mm of precip. 6cm snow depth.
- Tsunan, 452m: -1.4 degrees, 20mm of precip, 40cm snow depth(+40cm in 31 hours)
Central Japan resort areas:
- Yuzawa, 340m: -0.5 degrees, 32cm snow depth.(+32cm in 31 hours)
- Sekiyama(near Myoko), 350m: -0.5 degrees, 25cm snow depth.(+25cm in 31 hours)
- Hakuba, 703cm: -0.6 degrees, 0cm snow depth.
- Otari (near Cortina), 550m: - degrees, 9cm snow depth.
- Nozawa Onsen, 576m: -1.7 degrees, 31 cm snow depth.(+31cm in 31 hours)
- Kutchan (near Niseko), 39m, -12.8 degrees, 90cm.
Notice how it's STILL not typical winter lake/sea effect snow, except in northern Honshu?
This is because the wind is associated with a low pressure trough over Japan, and NOT a long Siberian fetch, like a typical winter pattern. You can also tell this by the temperatures in Takada, and the lack of snow there.
This morning on my balcony , not a very scientific model , but gives you an idea .
Measurement from my trusty measurer .
You could still see the cover on the snowmobile yesterday .
I'm going to hit up Schnieder by myself again hahahahahaha
Gfs still has lows meandering across from China all the way to Boxing Day!
High fat highs developing over Siberia in the extended model range but not seeing enough pressure gradient to drive the lake effect dumps imo