Japanese snow season 2016-17

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Sandy, Nov 23, 2016.

  1. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room
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    Was ver clear and sunny at Myoko Suginohara this morning, now it's absolutely dumping!!!! :D
     
  2. harks98

    harks98 Just Registered

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    Hi First time poster here... Im heading over to Nozawa from the 22nd Feb for 10 days. Just curious what the outlook is like for that period or if anyone can point me to a long range forecast that I can read?

    Cheers
     
  3. Seafm

    Seafm Dedicated Member
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    @Sandy what's your latest for Hakuba for the next few days? Seafm Jnr and co are there from the 16th-23rd.
     
  4. Incider

    Incider Dedicated Member

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    i concur. those pistes were gorgeous from 2:00 pm onwards...
     
  5. snowishing

    snowishing Active Member

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    Puking in Yuzawa town also... started heavy about 5pm I'd say. Fingers crossed it keeps up
     
  6. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Latest GFS output
    Date Day FL and Snow conditions
    15th Feb 900-1100m Light snow/rain
    16th Feb 1600-1800m No snow
    17th Feb 1700m, getting colder Heavy snow/rain later
    18th Feb 400m Light snow
    19th Feb 400m Light isolated snow
    20th Feb 1000m Moderate to heavy snow/rain
    21st Feb 1400m Light-Moderate snow/rain
    22nd Feb 2100m Heavy rain.
    23rd Feb 1700m, cooling throughout day to 500m Heavy rain, heavy snow later.

    @harks98 I am preparing a long range snow forecast for the weekend if you can hold on that long. Extended GFS might be of use...
     
  7. Julio

    Julio Active Member

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    First post in awhile but keeping an eye on extended forecasts as well and hoping to get a window off work later next week, with nothing booked yet I'm weighing up where to go.

    Snow-forecast 9-day (how reliable ??) but it's not looking ideal for Nagano, Niigata, Gunma regions…

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    Hokkaido should be okay with freeze levels remaining pretty low throughout the current range

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    Other places of Interest

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  8. pedub

    pedub Active Member

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    Freeze level has been low (I.e zero) in Hokkaido most of the season since I've been following, but Niseko area has been dry as from most accounts. Plenty of snow near Otaru coast tho.
     
  9. Julio

    Julio Active Member

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    Certainly pays to be mobile and have other options, well played :thumbs:
     
  10. harks98

    harks98 Just Registered

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    Thanks for your reply .... absolutely I'm looking forward to reading it
     
  11. neck_deep

    neck_deep Active Member

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    I'll be watching closely there Mr beans. Leave the US on the 21st to spend 6 weeks in Japan. Here's hoping for continued pow!
     
  12. Crispy013

    Crispy013 Dedicated Member

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    Go Hokkaido....too much variability in Honshu. That low coming through around the 22nd is a slight pineapple.
     
  13. Tennex

    Tennex Active Member

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    Heading off to Honshu tonight for 10 days. Its been a bit quiet here for the past 2 days. Does anyone have an update on snow forecasts for this week please. We will be very flexible to which resorts we ski in the Nagano area
     
  14. snowishing

    snowishing Active Member

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    Head to Shiga if/when it warms up. Wind might be your enemy but did this the other week when other areas were raining and got snow all day

    Epic Sunny day yesterday in gunma. Sunny this morning here. Heading north east to minimise rain...

    Seriously fast moving warm/cold cycles at present making it hard to pick where to go :/
     
  15. gibbsy

    gibbsy Active Member

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    altitude will be your friend to avoid any rain.... look at shiga, kagura etc
     
  16. Tonester

    Tonester Dedicated Member
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    Currently at Geto kogen. Pissing down
     
  17. Tonester

    Tonester Dedicated Member
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    Temp at about 10am was 5 degrees. Picked the wrong day. Hmmm. I think it's onsen time
     
  18. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room
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    I'm at Shiga Kogen right now.... Was a few spots of rain at the bottom of Giant (around 1350m) but absolutely dumping at Ichinose and higher up(around 1650m) The snow is a bit wet. Wind is strong from the west, so windhold hold issues.
     
  19. Tonester

    Tonester Dedicated Member
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    Wind hold for the 2 gondolas at Geto. One quad and two pairs running
     
  20. Chondro

    Chondro Dedicated Member
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    Rained heavy all night at niseko.
    Still mixing between rain and snow down at village level at the moment. Didnt bother to go up for a look as we are packing to move on to Zao then somewhere else after that? will await forecasts to choose
     
  21. Tonester

    Tonester Dedicated Member
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    So weather gurus. I'm back in Tokyo over the weekend then heading to asahikawa. The plan was to drive around central Hokkaido for the week. What's the outlook for the coming week in central as opposed to western Hokkaido?
     
  22. bengarden

    bengarden Active Member

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    Yes, any people want to guess at next few weeks for Hokkaido? Specifically Niseko which looks way below average for our arrival..........Im seeing a trend towards cooler temps and some snow into the weekend, perhaps a return to real winter conditions after the rain?
     
  23. woggybot

    woggybot Dedicated Member

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    Looks like it's started to come down nicely (finally!) on Niseko cams.
    Hopefully will stick around for a few days too
     
  24. Crispy013

    Crispy013 Dedicated Member

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    I would say looking pretty good for central Hokkaido resorts based on the direction of those lows floating up through central honshu. Monday looks very solid for Furano.
     
  25. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room
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    I will be in Hokkaido next week!!! :D
     
  26. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room
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    30 min ago, I go to my car at Shiga Kogen (Maruike, about 1400m) and it's moderate rain.... bigger drops than any time today.....

    So I go to the onsen downstairs, come back to the room, look out the window and it's bucketing snow, and now everything is now white, including my car!!!! :D
     
  27. Tonester

    Tonester Dedicated Member
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    Thanks. Snow forecast.com was suggesting ok for there. Lock It in then
     
  28. hotsaki

    hotsaki Dedicated Member
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    Got to Red Warehouse Myoko two hours ago.Superb accomodation.Was raining hard here too.Switched to snow about half an hour ago.Coming down reasonably hard ,praise be to the snow gods.
     
  29. Tonester

    Tonester Dedicated Member
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    Where you heading to @Sandy
     
  30. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room
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    Meeting TOFF and crew in Niseko
     
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  31. Tennex

    Tennex Active Member

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    Thanks guys. Heading to the airport right now:)
     
  32. Incider

    Incider Dedicated Member

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    Sat on tarmac at Narita. 2 hr delay to departure due to high winds
     
  33. Tonester

    Tonester Dedicated Member
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    bloody windy at present at geto kogen (down the road a bit from there). Looks like there's be a bit of snow outside too!
    I doubt much will be open up at Geto today. Given the winds now compared to yesterday and they had the 2 gondolas stopped by about 10.30 yesterday. The only thing running was the quad.
    I'll drive up and have a look in a couple of hours
     
  34. snowishing

    snowishing Active Member

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    Maybe a few cm in Myoko according to friends... Might need to boost to Shiga. Any on ground reports of what the snow was like yday before the snow? Assume anything north facing should still be OK as it should have stayed cold enough?
     
  35. Tonester

    Tonester Dedicated Member
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    Geto Kogen update as at 8:30 am
    Their 2 gondolas and 1 quad will not be running due to high wind.
    That leaves only a couple of pair lifts :(
    Oh well, it wasn't meant to be.
     
  36. sn0wbunny29

    sn0wbunny29 Well-Known Member

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    Everything open at Okushiga kogen today. 14cm overnight freshened everything up nicely. Supposed to be around 20cm this evening but today was our last day and heading back home tomorrow. If you're coming this way, enjoy!
     
  37. Ramenman

    Ramenman Well-Known Member

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    By the way, is global warming really happening now?. I'm recently getting to think it's just Urban Heat Island after seeing temperature records on JMA's website. Compared to 120 years ago, the temperatures in big cities like Tokyo, Osaka, etc have risen by 2 to 3 degrees but less than 0.5 degrees in small cities like Abashiri (Abashiri's population is about 50,000).

    Another example is the average temperature in Nozawa Onsen hasn't changed in the last 40 years.

    1979 = 11.1 degrees(average yearly temperature)
    1980 = 9.8
    1981 = 9.3
    1982 =10.5
    1983 =10.3
    The average between 1979 and 1983 is 10.2 degrees(JMA has Nozawa Onsen's data from 1979)

    2012 = 9.4
    2013 = 9.8
    2014 = 9.4
    2015 = 10.2
    2016 = 10.5
    The average between 2012 and 2016 is 9.86 degrees, which is lower than the temperature 40 years ago.

    http://www.data.jma.go.jp/obd/stats...=48&block_no=0393&year=1980&month=&day=&view=
     
    #1887 Ramenman, Feb 18, 2017
    Last edited: Feb 18, 2017
  38. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    @Ramenman
    Not for discussion here.
    Try the Bear Pit.
     
  39. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    neck_deep likes this.
  40. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room
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    Dumping at Shiga Kogen right now!!!!
     
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  41. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Your car isn't going to be happy ;)
     
  42. neck_deep

    neck_deep Active Member

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  43. bengarden

    bengarden Active Member

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  44. Wheres Walle

    Wheres Walle New Member

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    15-20cm this morning in Nozawa.. on a hard and bumpy base. Few pockets of goodness though where it wasn't too torn up underneath. Hopefully this Monday night storm delivers the goods once the rain clears.
     
  45. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room
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    25-35cm around Shiga Kogen (Kumanoyu /yokoteyama) overnight. The rain didn't hit above 1650m the other day, so all good around here today
     
  46. Chondro

    Chondro Dedicated Member
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    I'm in yamagata atm
    Looking at wind forecast seems zao will be windy as ? I assume nothing will be open?
    Is there any way to check the lift status at zao online ? Can't seem to find much info.

    Also how's next week looking for Honshu. Booked in yamagata until 21st. Nothing booked anywhere after that. Any ideas on where to go to chase some cheap snow? Have until the 26th to kill until heading to Nagasaki
     
  47. Crispy013

    Crispy013 Dedicated Member

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    Shiga Kogen should survive the variable temps.
     
  48. snowishing

    snowishing Active Member

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    Anywhere that might be safe from rain and the wind? I'm thinking higher elevation to avoid rain means only windier and nothing open....
     
  49. Nozawaman

    Nozawaman Addicted Member
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    We are getting to the turning point here on Honshu (if it hasn't already started ?) , and we will not get anymore of the 50/60/70cm dumps that we all love IMO .
     
  50. Tonester

    Tonester Dedicated Member
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    That's good. We're flying in to Asahikawa tomorrow