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Discussion in 'Weather' started by Sandy, Nov 23, 2016.
just an occasional patch of wet snow then little rain in nozawa
@Sandy still not a typical winter pattern though is it?
Unsure if srs?
I like to refer to the earth.nullschool.net website; currently showing a solid NW wind feed across Hokkaido and Honshu, with a nice fetch well back into the Asian mainland.
Here's hoping this setup sets up camp for the next few days ❄️❄️
Perhaps 100-130cm over forecast period according to GFS.
Half that according to EC. Patience this far out.
What do you reckon for Furano @smitty484 ? It's looking ok if like a week of clear after Friday
Using gfs I cant see any snow for central Hokkaido for two weeks after this Friday
Yuzawa ic cam is hammering down
On the GFS 12z run today (and previous runs) there's a period of NE winds between approx. 00z 15th and 18z 16th that would deliver snow to some central Hokkaido areas (such as Asahidake). Maybe Furano would be too far west to benefit from this, i'm not sure. Then it looks pretty dry for central Hokkaido out to the end of the run on the 26th.
The 06z though had a series lows crossing on the 19th-20th, 22nd and 24th-25th that are all cold and snowy and would benefit central Hokkaido. The 06z was a great run for that area.
Lets see what the 18z has to say...
Yeah central Furano has had a strong early season but now the rest of Japan is finally on, it appears to be going quiet
Looking at the GFS ensembles plot for the 12z, although the operational run was dry after the 16th for the Furano area, most other runs still go for a chance of precipitation. There is a consensus for it being pretty dry around 17th-18th but other than that it doesn't look too bad to me.
JMA is showing very heavy snow throughout niigata and Nagano.
Sekiyama has 25 cm since midnight, Yuzawa at least 15, and Nozawa 20.
They had Aomori airport on the news before and its absolutely hammering down up there.
nozawa village has had 20+ and still coming down nicely
Happo reporting 30
Clear 30 below tj ropeway. Light and fluffy
You're dooming it with obsession.
so were you a few days ago
Cortina only showing 15....Happo is the new Cortina.
I am happy with this.
Around 40 at 1100 metres here .
There's large amounts of Lake effect cloud on the Sea of Japan, but it's currently a light westerly. This suits resorts nearer the coast, and higher up at Happo/47/Goryu, but not Cortina.
Be patient, the winds will swing north, strengthen and dump right across central Japan
Blardy ell... JMA predicting snow in Nagoya and Hiroshima this weekend...
Probably reach higher parts of Kyushu.
Puuuking in hirafu. Hasn't stopped!
That is GEFS, you are looking at.
I soooo hope your words come true Sandy!!
On whatever morning show I am watching has live cross to an onsen up at yamagata pref... Very heavy snow at the moment.
Yay for some Yamagata lovin!
From JMA weather station sites to 9am:
- Takada, 13m: 1.7 degrees, 10cm snow (+10cm)
- Yasuzuka, 126m: 0.3 degrees, 21cm snow (+21cm)
- Tsunan, 452m: -0.6 degrees, 66cm snow(+42cm!!!!)
- Shinano-machi, 685m: -3.0 degrees, 23cm snow(+9cm)
Central Japan resort areas:
- Yuzawa, 340m: -0.8 degrees, 35cm snow depth.(+26cm)
- Sekiyama(near Myoko), 350m: -0.9 degrees, 36cm snow depth.(+36cm!!!)
- Hakuba, 703cm: -1.9 degrees, 0cm snow depth.
- Otari (near Cortina), 550m: - degrees, 25cm snow depth.(+8cm)
- Nozawa Onsen, 576m: -2.3 degrees, 41 cm snow depth.(+24cm)
The places I get my cues from, for snowfall and freeze level are:
- Takada. About 2km from the sea, elevation 13 metres. This usually has substantial amounts of snow through the season (often 2m+ base). This is a good indicator for: 1 How much precip there is close to the coast. 2. how cold it is at sea level.
This is a good indicator for Myoko & Hakuba, and Nozawa Onsen to some extent.
- Yasuzuka. It is the Niigata foothills, 15km from the sea, and 25km due north of Nozawa Onsen and 35km NW of Yuzawa. Elevation 126m. This is a great indicator for precip a little ways from the coast, with just enough elevation to get substantial snow. You can get a feel for temperature and snow for the eastern Nagano resorts and Niigata
- Tsunan about 30km from the coast, in line with Yasuzuka. 20km on the road from Nozawa Onsen, & 10 km SE of Cupid Valley, 452m elevation. It cops huge amounts of snow.
- Shinano-machi (just across the border in Nagano, about 10km south of Myoko, at 685m. A good indicator for inland penetration, and amount of snow hitting the south side of Myoko resorts (e.g. Suginohara)
Myoko reporting 57cm past 2 days
Snow- forecast +158cm next 6 days for Myoko
x 2 or 3 = Biblical
Old rule for a snow forecast multiplier doesn't apply any more.
Clearly not terribly familiar with Hokkaido.
While the main island temps and subsequently snow quality wobble up and down for the next ten days, central and northern Hokkaido conditions will be staying prime. Don't need as much, in fact I find more than 15cm a day makes it to hard for serious offsite, simply too dry and deep.
The northern half of Hokkaido is the quiet achiever, at either end of the season in the transition periods it tends to be favoured by patterns and appears to be going off, while further south is sub-tropical, but that doesn't mean it doesn't continue to tick away during the mid-winter period. Things tend to get askewed by the short, high intensity snow season in central Honshu.
If your not scoring in central Hokkaido over the next week, somethings wrong, and not with the weather patterns.
Knee deep in Niseko village today. Face shots all morning with ease.
Just came in for lunch. Still fresh untouched lines until 11:30.
Still snowing real steady.
Couldn't agree more. About 30cm over the last 2 days in Furano, still snowing and this system will go through to Thursday night/Friday morning. Once the snow stops, we get the great BC weather, and in the gullies and dry cold valleys of Daisetsuzan, it just stays powdery for weeks on end, slowly settling from feather light fluff to knee deep dry powder. Temps won't get above zero in Tokachi or Asahi Dake till well into late February and the protected gullies don't see any wind.
I will be in Yuzawa from Friday, just wondering if those in the know could advise of what they think the lifts will be like.Considering the forecast wind, do the lifts at Naeba and Kagura(i know the top ones will be) get affected badly by wind?
Is Kandatsu a better option for windy days?
How does Hakkaisan fare with wind hold?
The old reset over lunch trick.
Still applies at niseko
IMO there was never a rule.
When there is a big lake effect happening, snowforecast still under predicts, because their model doesn't work. When there's a lot of low pressure troughs (like there has been lately in Japan), then it's closer to the mark.
So you have to look at snowforecast, and then the weather maps, and see if it's lake effect or low pressure troughs, then make the call.
What is your call for the next week then in central honshu resorts? 150cm?
Places like myoko I'd go 250+
oh @seekingpow , you're telling me what I want to hear.
Just a stab but when I've been in Myoko it acts like a magnet and often does 30% better than surrounding areas. The fetch lining up for Honshu looks like prime legendary stuff
I called "Biblical" last week!!!
Generally, that's head high or better
I'd say it will be too deep in many areas on Sat/Sun.... but great news for the base and smashing down bushes off-piste.
If it's less than crotch deep, it's not too deep!!
Just landed today steady medium to light snow falling at 47 at the moment
Here is a bit of a reality check from
Hakuba..... So far this storm is a fizzer and the base really is terrible. It was meant to turn on last night/today and it didn't. A few waves of snow but nothing that actually accumulates and does anything. So far it has significant underperformed and right now we can see the moon and it's not snowing. It did not snow 30cm at Happo last night even if that was reported somewhere. Maybe 15cm. Fingers crossed it turns on tomorrow but everyone has lost hope here. I did not see how this storm could not deliver but it's doing nothing so far. Grrrrrrr.