Japanese snow season 2016-17

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Sandy, Nov 23, 2016.

  1.  
    Mazzy89

    Mazzy89 Active Member

    Lucky!!
     
  2.  
    hardbooter

    hardbooter Active Member

    just an occasional patch of wet snow then little rain in nozawa
     
  3.  
    Mazzy89

    Mazzy89 Active Member

    @Sandy still not a typical winter pattern though is it?
     
  4.  
    smitty484

    smitty484 Old And Crusty Season Pass Gold

    Unsure if srs?
     
  5.  
    woggybot

    woggybot Dedicated Member

    I like to refer to the earth.nullschool.net website; currently showing a solid NW wind feed across Hokkaido and Honshu, with a nice fetch well back into the Asian mainland.
    Here's hoping this setup sets up camp for the next few days ❄️❄️
     
  6.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    Perhaps 100-130cm over forecast period according to GFS.
    Half that according to EC. Patience this far out.
     
  7.  
    seekingpow

    seekingpow Dedicated Member

    What do you reckon for Furano @smitty484 ? It's looking ok if like a week of clear after Friday
     
  8.  
    seekingpow

    seekingpow Dedicated Member

    Using gfs I cant see any snow for central Hokkaido for two weeks after this Friday
     
  9.  
    bullet

    bullet Well-Known Member

    Yuzawa ic cam is hammering down :cheers:
     
    :thumbs: Slowpony likes this.
  10.  
    musehead

    musehead Active Member

    On the GFS 12z run today (and previous runs) there's a period of NE winds between approx. 00z 15th and 18z 16th that would deliver snow to some central Hokkaido areas (such as Asahidake). Maybe Furano would be too far west to benefit from this, i'm not sure. Then it looks pretty dry for central Hokkaido out to the end of the run on the 26th.

    The 06z though had a series lows crossing on the 19th-20th, 22nd and 24th-25th that are all cold and snowy and would benefit central Hokkaido. The 06z was a great run for that area.

    Lets see what the 18z has to say...
     
    :thumbs: seekingpow likes this.
  11.  
    seekingpow

    seekingpow Dedicated Member

    Yeah central Furano has had a strong early season but now the rest of Japan is finally on, it appears to be going quiet
     
  12.  
    musehead

    musehead Active Member

    Looking at the GFS ensembles plot for the 12z, although the operational run was dry after the 16th for the Furano area, most other runs still go for a chance of precipitation. There is a consensus for it being pretty dry around 17th-18th but other than that it doesn't look too bad to me.

    [​IMG]
     
  13.  
    ojisan

    ojisan Part of the Furniture Season Pass Gold

    JMA is showing very heavy snow throughout niigata and Nagano.
    Sekiyama has 25 cm since midnight, Yuzawa at least 15, and Nozawa 20.
    They had Aomori airport on the news before and its absolutely hammering down up there.
     
  14.  
    hardbooter

    hardbooter Active Member

    nozawa village has had 20+ and still coming down nicely
     
  15.  
    smitty484

    smitty484 Old And Crusty Season Pass Gold

    Happo reporting 30
     
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  16.  
    gibbsy

    gibbsy Active Member

    Clear 30 below tj ropeway. Light and fluffy
     
  17.  
    gibbsy

    gibbsy Active Member

    You're dooming it with obsession. LOL
     
    :thumbs: dr80 likes this.
  18.  
    seekingpow

    seekingpow Dedicated Member

    so were you a few days ago LOL
     
  19.  
    Crispy013

    Crispy013 Dedicated Member

    Cortina only showing 15....Happo is the new Cortina.
     
    :thumbs: kaegee likes this.
  20.  
    Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Season Pass Gold

    I am happy with this.
     
  21.  
    Nozawaman

    Nozawaman Addicted Member

    Around 40 at 1100 metres here .
     
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  22.  
    Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Season Pass Gold

    There's large amounts of Lake effect cloud on the Sea of Japan, but it's currently a light westerly. This suits resorts nearer the coast, and higher up at Happo/47/Goryu, but not Cortina.
    Be patient, the winds will swing north, strengthen and dump right across central Japan
     
    :thumbs: gmanpadre likes this.
  23.  
    ojisan

    ojisan Part of the Furniture Season Pass Gold

    Blardy ell... JMA predicting snow in Nagoya and Hiroshima this weekend...
     
  24.  
    PMG

    PMG Dedicated Member Season Pass Gold

    Probably reach higher parts of Kyushu.
     
  25.  
    Mazzy89

    Mazzy89 Active Member

    Puuuking in hirafu. Hasn't stopped!
     
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  26.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    That is GEFS, you are looking at.
     
  27.  
    woggybot

    woggybot Dedicated Member

    I soooo hope your words come true Sandy!! :)
     
  28.  
    ojisan

    ojisan Part of the Furniture Season Pass Gold

    On whatever morning show I am watching has live cross to an onsen up at yamagata pref... Very heavy snow at the moment.
     
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  29.  
    Froff Life

    Froff Life Dedicated Member Season Pass Gold

    Yay for some Yamagata lovin!
     
  30.  
    Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Season Pass Gold

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    From JMA weather station sites to 9am:

    - Takada, 13m: 1.7 degrees, 10cm snow (+10cm)
    - Yasuzuka, 126m: 0.3 degrees, 21cm snow (+21cm)
    - Tsunan, 452m: -0.6 degrees, 66cm snow(+42cm!!!!)
    - Shinano-machi, 685m: -3.0 degrees, 23cm snow(+9cm)

    Central Japan resort areas:
    - Yuzawa, 340m: -0.8 degrees, 35cm snow depth.(+26cm)
    - Sekiyama(near Myoko), 350m: -0.9 degrees, 36cm snow depth.(+36cm!!!)
    - Hakuba, 703cm: -1.9 degrees, 0cm snow depth.
    - Otari (near Cortina), 550m: - degrees, 25cm snow depth.(+8cm)
    - Nozawa Onsen, 576m: -2.3 degrees, 41 cm snow depth.(+24cm)
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    The places I get my cues from, for snowfall and freeze level are:

    - Takada. About 2km from the sea, elevation 13 metres. This usually has substantial amounts of snow through the season (often 2m+ base). This is a good indicator for: 1 How much precip there is close to the coast. 2. how cold it is at sea level.
    This is a good indicator for Myoko & Hakuba, and Nozawa Onsen to some extent.

    - Yasuzuka. It is the Niigata foothills, 15km from the sea, and 25km due north of Nozawa Onsen and 35km NW of Yuzawa. Elevation 126m. This is a great indicator for precip a little ways from the coast, with just enough elevation to get substantial snow. You can get a feel for temperature and snow for the eastern Nagano resorts and Niigata

    - Tsunan about 30km from the coast, in line with Yasuzuka. 20km on the road from Nozawa Onsen, & 10 km SE of Cupid Valley, 452m elevation. It cops huge amounts of snow.

    - Shinano-machi (just across the border in Nagano, about 10km south of Myoko, at 685m. A good indicator for inland penetration, and amount of snow hitting the south side of Myoko resorts (e.g. Suginohara)
     
  31.  
    dr80

    dr80 Well-Known Member Season Pass Gold

    Myoko reporting 57cm past 2 days

     
  32.  
    dr80

    dr80 Well-Known Member Season Pass Gold

    Snow- forecast +158cm next 6 days for Myoko
    x 2 or 3 = Biblical

     
  33.  
    smackies

    smackies Addicted Member

    Old rule for a snow forecast multiplier doesn't apply any more.
     
  34.  
    Rabid K9

    Rabid K9 Dedicated Member

    Peking Duck!!

    Clearly not terribly familiar with Hokkaido.

    While the main island temps and subsequently snow quality wobble up and down for the next ten days, central and northern Hokkaido conditions will be staying prime. Don't need as much, in fact I find more than 15cm a day makes it to hard for serious offsite, simply too dry and deep.

    The northern half of Hokkaido is the quiet achiever, at either end of the season in the transition periods it tends to be favoured by patterns and appears to be going off, while further south is sub-tropical, but that doesn't mean it doesn't continue to tick away during the mid-winter period. Things tend to get askewed by the short, high intensity snow season in central Honshu.

    If your not scoring in central Hokkaido over the next week, somethings wrong, and not with the weather patterns.
     
    Last edited: Jan 11, 2017
  35.  
    Chondro

    Chondro Dedicated Member Season Pass Gold

    Knee deep in Niseko village today. Face shots all morning with ease.
    Just came in for lunch. Still fresh untouched lines until 11:30.
    Still snowing real steady.
     
    :thumbs: Mazzy89 likes this.
  36.  
    telenomore

    telenomore Well-Known Member

    Couldn't agree more. About 30cm over the last 2 days in Furano, still snowing and this system will go through to Thursday night/Friday morning. Once the snow stops, we get the great BC weather, and in the gullies and dry cold valleys of Daisetsuzan, it just stays powdery for weeks on end, slowly settling from feather light fluff to knee deep dry powder. Temps won't get above zero in Tokachi or Asahi Dake till well into late February and the protected gullies don't see any wind.
     
    :thumbs: pedub likes this.
  37.  
    bullet

    bullet Well-Known Member

    I will be in Yuzawa from Friday, just wondering if those in the know could advise of what they think the lifts will be like.Considering the forecast wind, do the lifts at Naeba and Kagura(i know the top ones will be) get affected badly by wind?
    Is Kandatsu a better option for windy days?
    How does Hakkaisan fare with wind hold?
    Thanks
     
  38.  
    DeskRider

    DeskRider Dedicated Member

    The old reset over lunch trick.
     
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  39.  
    dr80

    dr80 Well-Known Member Season Pass Gold

    :(
     
  40.  
    Budgiesmuggler

    Budgiesmuggler Dedicated Member Season Pass Gold

    Still applies at niseko
     
  41.  
    Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Season Pass Gold

    IMO there was never a rule.
    When there is a big lake effect happening, snowforecast still under predicts, because their model doesn't work. When there's a lot of low pressure troughs (like there has been lately in Japan), then it's closer to the mark.

    So you have to look at snowforecast, and then the weather maps, and see if it's lake effect or low pressure troughs, then make the call.
     
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  42.  
    TDS

    TDS Active Member

    What is your call for the next week then in central honshu resorts? 150cm?
     
  43.  
    seekingpow

    seekingpow Dedicated Member

    Places like myoko I'd go 250+
     
    :thumbs: TDS likes this.
  44.  
    TDS

    TDS Active Member

    oh @seekingpow , you're telling me what I want to hear.
     
  45.  
    seekingpow

    seekingpow Dedicated Member

    Just a stab but when I've been in Myoko it acts like a magnet and often does 30% better than surrounding areas. The fetch lining up for Honshu looks like prime legendary stuff
     
  46.  
    Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Season Pass Gold

    I called "Biblical" last week!!! ;)
    Generally, that's head high or better
     
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  47.  
    snowishing

    snowishing Active Member

    I'd say it will be too deep in many areas on Sat/Sun.... but great news for the base and smashing down bushes off-piste.
     
    :thumbs: TDS likes this.
  48.  
    Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Season Pass Gold

    If it's less than crotch deep, it's not too deep!! ;)
     
    :thumbs: TDS likes this.
  49.  
    Salacious Crumb

    Salacious Crumb Active Member

    Just landed today steady medium to light snow falling at 47 at the moment
     
    :thumbs: smitty484 likes this.
  50.  
    Mark102 mk2

    Mark102 mk2 Active Member

    Here is a bit of a reality check from
    Hakuba..... So far this storm is a fizzer and the base really is terrible. It was meant to turn on last night/today and it didn't. A few waves of snow but nothing that actually accumulates and does anything. So far it has significant underperformed and right now we can see the moon and it's not snowing. It did not snow 30cm at Happo last night even if that was reported somewhere. Maybe 15cm. Fingers crossed it turns on tomorrow but everyone has lost hope here. I did not see how this storm could not deliver but it's doing nothing so far. Grrrrrrr.
     
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