Japanese snow season 2016-17

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Sandy, Nov 23, 2016.

  1.  
    G0Z

    G0Z New Member


    This feature is sea affect snow.

    Lake effect snow is produced during cooler atmospheric conditions when a cold air mass moves across long expanses of warmer lake water, warming the lower layer of air which picks up water vapor from the lake, rises up through the colder air above, freezes and is deposited on the leeward downwind shores.
     
  2.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    Yeah, but a high pressure needs to be present for significant snow in Central Honshu.
    But if there are lows, then no snow. Will wait to see if the high moves east towards Japan...
     
  3.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    Thanks for the video.
     
  4.  
    Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Just to make it clear, the snow in Tokyo last Thursday was not "lake/sea effect" snow. Tokyo only gets snow from low pressure troughs passing to the Pacific side of Japan. Tokyo also gets snow mid season, without any strong cold air in-feed, with a low pressure trough, if the air on the western flank is sufficiently cold.

    The snow afterwards had some "lake effect" component after the low moved to the east, but it was not strong like the mid winter effect.
    See here:
    http://forums.ski.com.au/xf/threads/weather-tutorial-for-japan.63512/
     
  5.  
    Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Not always. you just need a gradient that directs a northerly across the Sea of Japan

    Also, you can get significant snow off the western flank of a low once it passes.
     
    :thumbs: Jellybeans1000 likes this.
  6.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    [​IMG]
    I found a nice wind here... albeit on the 21st of December.
     
    :thumbs: smitty484 likes this.
  7.  
    smitty484

    smitty484 Old And Crusty Season Pass Gold

    That does look nice
     
  8.  
    FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

    Yo Smitty bro are you still mates with Donza? Are you going shredding with the Donza San in Japow this season?
     
  9.  
    PMG

    PMG Dedicated Member Season Pass Gold

    Locked in.;)
     
  10.  
    smitty484

    smitty484 Old And Crusty Season Pass Gold

    Something decent brewing for around the 6th/7th. Been on the charts for a couple of days now.
     
    :thumbs: seekingpow likes this.
  11.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    Tasty... 800m for Central Honshu, 400-600m for North Honshu and Hokkaido down to sea level...
     
    :thumbs: Hyst and TDS like this.
  12.  
    seekingpow

    seekingpow Dedicated Member

    Yep nice & cold too - good snow quality up Hakkoda way
    [​IMG]
     
    :thumbs: Hyst likes this.
  13.  
    Brad Filmer

    Brad Filmer Active Member

    :thumbs: Hyst likes this.
  14.  
    Brad Filmer

    Brad Filmer Active Member

    Static image instead
    [​IMG]
     
  15.  
    Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Yes, but what does it actually mean?
    "Total accumulated snowfall", 10:1 ratio (cm)
    Valid Wednesday 2016-12-14
     
  16.  
    Brad Filmer

    Brad Filmer Active Member

    This is a profile of the total snow fall predicted over the standard GFS forecast period of 384 hours
    based on the 28th of Nov data set at 00z hours.

    The ratio of 10:1 is a mid point for volume of snow vs water and is on the wetter end of the scale.
    Dry powder could be as a high as 30:1 and so is more voluminous.
    "The snow to liquid equivalent is the amount of liquid precipitation that is produced after melting snow. The temperature profile of the troposphere and the surface temperature are important factors that determine this value. The "average" snow to liquid ratio is 10:1. This is saying that if 10 inches of snow fell and that snow was melted it would produce 1 inch of liquid precipitation in the rain gauge."

    So if the events of the coming days eventuate as forecast by the 14th Dec there could be as much as 33cm in Nagano and 89 cm in central Hokkaido.

    I just thought the gif anim was cool but that didn't work so good.
     
  17.  
    Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Season Pass Gold

    When anybody posts maps that are generally not seen before, you should explain what the map means.

    e.g.
    Total snowfall forecast in cm, 384hrs for interval 2016-11-28 to 2016-12-14
    Based on snow to water ratio of 10:1
     
  18.  
    Hyst

    Hyst Active Member Season Pass Gold

    @ Brad Filmer: you bette learn that - Sandy will come after you otherwise! :deadhorse: LOL
     
    :thumbs: Annitowa and smitty484 like this.
  19.  
    Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Season Pass Gold

    There's still plenty of autumn in the outlook.

    Dec 5th: Looks like freeze level at Niseko about 1000m

    [​IMG]

    Dec 5th: Looks like freeze level at Niseko about 1300m

    [​IMG]


    But
    Dec 12-14th: Looks like a big freeze, with freeze level at TOKYO down to 0m

    Most of the cold outbreaks in Hokkaido are being driven by huge low pressure troughs.


    [​IMG]
     
  20.  
    Chondro

    Chondro Dedicated Member Season Pass Gold

    Good for setting a base up for places tho and pushing some vegetation down no?
     
  21.  
    Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Yes, snow, followed by rain, then snow.

    Normal late autumn conditions, but probably two weeks early
     
    :thumbs: Chondro likes this.
  22.  
    woggybot

    woggybot Dedicated Member

    Snow-Forecast has freezing levels climbing rapidly from 0m to nearly 1500m from this Fri night all the way to Sun night.
    Yuk.
    But this modelling could change pretty quickly, I've seen it happen recently.
     
  23.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    I wouldn't trust Snow-forecast with anything...
     
    :thumbs: Froff Life likes this.
  24.  
    smitty484

    smitty484 Old And Crusty Season Pass Gold

    i've found snow-forecast to be pretty reliable at picking snow level/wind direction.
     
    :thumbs: DeskRider and woggybot like this.
  25.  
    oreo

    oreo Dedicated Member Season Pass Gold

    About 10cm in furano town in the last 24hr (174m asl), but 40cm in last 24hr at Sounkyo / Kurodake (540m asl).
     
  26.  
    woggybot

    woggybot Dedicated Member

    Based on my obs only for Niseko, I have to concur with that.
     
  27.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    It's okay, but why would you rely on that, when you can just look at the charts yourself.
     
  28.  
    smitty484

    smitty484 Old And Crusty Season Pass Gold

    well snowforecast breaks the forecast down into 8 hours sections and is an easy to read format and is pretty reliable. I can understand why people would use it.
     
    :thumbs: Vermillion likes this.
  29.  
    Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Season Pass Gold

    The thing with forecasting snow/weather in Japan is that when you look too much at the charts you tend to see things that arent there. IMO forecasting snow in Japan is pretty easy, and it doesnt require the same amount of attention to detail as forecasting weather in VIC, for example.
     
    :thumbs: Hyst, Jellybeans1000 and smitty484 like this.
  30.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    I would use it, if the charts on snowforecast.com didn't come straight from GFS.
     
  31.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    All you need is wind strength and direction. Simples.
     
  32.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    [​IMG]
    This brand new chart from Tropical Tidbits gives you all the tools you need to predict snow for Japan. Wind direction and 850mb temperature. Actually you might need to add in a MSLP chart for wind strength, but this is basically it. Looking at rainfall and snowfall figures is useless when considering the lake effect. It will produce moisture, as long as the winds align.
     
  33.  
    smitty484

    smitty484 Old And Crusty Season Pass Gold

    Yes wind direction and strength, which is what snow-forecast is good at it. Then it adds nice little graphics and snow line.

    I'm all for reviewing charts per above, but snow-forecast is a pretty quick and effective way to get a snapshot of what the weather is doing.
     
    :thumbs: woggybot and oreo like this.
  34.  
    Crispy013

    Crispy013 Dedicated Member

    Some positive signs from the 11th Dec. Northly wind, check. Strengthening high over Siberia, check. Lowering temperatures, check. Hopefully this kick starts the season to come.
     
    :thumbs: TDS likes this.
  35.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    GFS tick
    EC tick
    Looking very nice for 800m in Central Honshu, 500m for Northern Honshu, Sea Level for Hokkaido.
    All IMO.
     
    :thumbs: TDS likes this.
  36.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    Snow and rain forecasts for Central Honshu are not that far from being guesses for more than a couple of days out. The best indicator of snow in Central Honshu is temperature and wind direction and strength. Rain and snow forecasts are more accurate for Hokkaido.
     
  37.  
    TDS

    TDS Active Member

    But I want it to snow in middle honshu now :cry:
     
    :thumbs: Hyst likes this.
  38.  
    skichanger

    skichanger Dedicated Member Season Pass Gold

    It is. I am concerned my little snowblower will be buried by the snow sliding of my roof atm. It is happening far more often that I want. And my car is turning into a white lump.

    [​IMG]
     
  39.  
    seekingpow

    seekingpow Dedicated Member

    Where is this?
     
  40.  
    skichanger

    skichanger Dedicated Member Season Pass Gold

    Chalet Myoko. Shin Akakura, Taguchi (Myoko Kogen) , Niigata, For an exact location put Chalet Myoko into google maps.
     
    :thumbs: seekingpow likes this.
  41.  
    seekingpow

    seekingpow Dedicated Member

    cool didn't expect this much snow in honshu from this system
     
  42.  
    skichanger

    skichanger Dedicated Member Season Pass Gold

    Yeah I am a little concerned atm. Tomorrow's plans could go astray as I may need to move snow.
     
  43.  
    LMB

    LMB Part of the Furniture Season Pass Gold

    Great start to this season.
    Brilliant.
     
  44.  
    smackies

    smackies Addicted Member

    Ground cooler.
     
  45.  
    ojisan

    ojisan Part of the Furniture Season Pass Gold

    and its only November........ just :)
     
  46.  
    smackies

    smackies Addicted Member

    Soon it will only be January December.

    Those cabbages need covering.
     
    :thumbs: Froff Life likes this.
  47.  
    ojisan

    ojisan Part of the Furniture Season Pass Gold

    Central Honshu traditionally doesn't get going for a couple more weeks at least....
     
  48.  
    woggybot

    woggybot Dedicated Member

    dahhlinks, I no complaaaaaain :D
     
  49.  
    Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Well, it's not "going" yet!!!! ;)
    Usually, when the early winter "step" takes place, there's no sign of rain on the slopes for 3-4 weekday at least. But there's warmer weather on the current outlook. IMO, that snow on the ground at Myoko will melt again before the 11th-14th Dec, when it looks like the real early winter might kick in.
     
  50.  
    Ramenman

    Ramenman Well-Known Member

    It is reported that it will be very windy and snowy in Northern Japan this Thursday and Friday. I hope Niigata, Nagano, Southern Tohoku(Fukushima) are included in the "Northern Japan" in this case. Central Honshu might be a bit too warm to snow tomorrow and the day after tomorrow. It will snow in Northern Tohoku and Hokkaido(it can be blizzard there)