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Discussion in 'Weather' started by Sandy, Nov 23, 2016.
Ah ok enjoy. Might bump into each other at the airport.
Looks great into the New Year, just looked at the long term and it looks even more great!
This is what I like to see
Looks prolonged too
The flick of the switch perhaps?!!
" With a flick of the switch, she'll blow you sky high,
With a flick of the switch, she can satisfy!"
Bring it on Mother Nature (and AC/DC)
Yes, looking much more traditional around New years.
The flick of the switch has been forecast around New Years for the last week or so.
Can I get a 'BIBLICAL' in the forecast yet?
The 00z/12z and 06z/18z models are not aligning yet.
The 12z above looks really good from about 12:00 Japan time 29th Dec until about Jan 3rd.
The 18z model run shows the northern low much further to the east, and that changes the direction and fetch of the northerly air flow. So this model shows a bit of snow on 29th Dec, easing, then more snow on Jan 2nd clearing:
The "flick of the switch" has been forecast on the 00z/12z model runs, but not on the 06z/18z. We are all hoping the 00z/12z run is the more accurate of the two, but they are not aligning, so it's not definitive yet.
Sandy I could be wrong here but i believe the 00 and 12 runs coincide with the release of weather balloons (I'm sure I read it somewhere). And hence are more reliable. From personally experience I've found them more reliable on the past.
The 00z/12z model run shows the "switch flick" late in the month, while the 06z/18z doesn't.
Ok, so there's two questions we might ask about the 00z/12z and 06z/18z model runs:
1. Which is more accurate?
2. When do they diverge?
So let's take a look.....
Comparing 120-126 hours forecast:
12z Dec 20th for 18z Dec 25th(126 hours):
18z Dec 20th for 18z Dec 25th(120 hours):
These are practically IDENTICAL.
Now comparing 138-144 hours forecast:
12z Dec 20th for 12z Dec 26th(144 hours):
18z Dec 20th for 12z Dec 26th(138 hours):
It's the earlier formation of the low(1012hPa) near Hokkaido in the 12z model run, that precipitates the low pushing less to the east, and the big snow at the end of the month.
The two models diverge around 132->138 hours.
So now we can keep an eye on 12z Dec 26th over the next two days to see which of 00z/12z of 06z/18z is more accurate.
i.e. Whether the small low develops near Hokkaido on 12z Dec 26th. If it DOES, then we may be able to say with more confidence that the "switch will flick" around the 29th!!!!
Yep, let's see how reliable.
(see my previous post, we can test it!!!! )
00Z - Weather buoy, satellite data, shipping data, country data, NOAA data
06Z - Weather buoy, satellite data, shipping data
12Z - Shipping data, Satellite data ONLY
18Z - Weather buoy, satellite data, shipping data, country data, NOAA data
This is for GFS data, think I have stated it before. The weather buoy doesn't get deployed for the 12Z run. The 4 runs need to all agree for at least 24 hours to be considered somewhat accurate.
So... what youre actually saying.. it's biblical?...
No - all he is saying is whether deep winter patterns will kick in or not around this date
I'm putting this info on the first post if you need it again.
IMO latest GFS run not looking as good for most parts of Japan in the new year period 31st-5th
Way too far out to get worried.
Definitely balmy conditions today....
Yep, 17 degrees in Tokyo today.
Us is experiencing another polar outbreak and North Pole is due to hit 0c this week; similar to last year. Wonder if the wandering lows and warmer Honshu temps are connected?
I'm calling it. Switch flicks Saturday 24th December, IMO.
- Low pressure troughs have less effect on temperatures, even if they come through.
- 540 line a little north of Tokyo or better, 80% of the time.
- Tokyo night times lows around 2->4 degrees, days time max 10->12 degrees.
Bring it on!!!
I am still on a steep learning curve trying to understand all this. Help me understand why you are not only saying the 24th, but the 24th with quite a bit of confidence when in previous posts it seemed the thought was much closer to New Year's if not after.
PS My first day on the snow will be the 28th so this is music to my ears. Actually I keep hearing White Christmas being sung over and over in my head.
Look at this first.
It's all to do with the temperatures, from the latest GFS run you could see the 540 line pretty close to Tokyo a lot more of the time. This brings in colder air from the North Pole.
A good call I think, snow-forecast.com (wich i know is not a good source) is saying there will be rain in nozawa on the night of the 26th... thoughts?
All depends where the low tracks and how fast it moves away so the northerlies have more influence
See my criteria.
It has been warmish here for the past couple of days , and this morning very windy . That being said the mountain is holding up well with staff keeping the Forest Trail open all the way to the village .
IMO central hokkaido should get mostly snow out of this storm
A high of 15.5 degrees in Tokyo so far, but 19.3 degrees in Yokohama, where I am.
Over 20 degrees just near Osaka.
Currently 18 degrees in Melbourne.... What's going on?!
Just coming from the sauna before rolling in the snow....
Yeah another warm one today....luckily no major precip yet, but its coming . Fingers crossed its not the 100mm+ forecast
Well, up in Niseko, cams are showing snow coming down, so a little silver lining there so far....
That was always going to be on the cards this afternoon / evening
Furano reporting decent snow falling so far like niseko - could be a good system for Hokkaido
A place called Kumatori, not far from Osaka, registered 22.8 degrees, possibly the highest in Japan today. I recall, that 4 days before the unseasonable snow in November in Tokyo, it was 23 degrees. That episode (high temperature and then very low) precipitated a step change in the season.....
the spike before the "flick"
I like your enthusiasm Sandy
100% humidity and temps between 0 and 1C in Kutchan
Snowed all day in otaru today.
Got back to niseko at about 6pm with pissing down rain and still pissing down. The roads are like a river in some spots sorry to say.
Apparently turned to rain at 4pm.
Lol, what nobody wants to hear.
We all just have to wait for this system to pass.
Kutchan, (near Niseko but lower) shows an increase in snow depth from 66cm at 4pm, to 74cm at 7pm.
Started snowing about midday in Kitanomine (Furano) straight out of the south, and still out of the south, low level blizzard conditions at the moment. No rain. About 15-20 cm accumulation at the base of the hill, plenty more to come me thinks overnight. Fine powdery snow, not the big northerly corn flakes we usually get. Luckily the warmest air coming through in middle of the night. Might be what saves us from any rain. Several friends/staff stuck in Tokyo as fights into Chitose pretty much all cancelled all afternoon, with backlogs right through to tomorrow afternoon, assuming they fly tomorrow first thing.
Just started raining at Hakuba.
But cooling from the west. Hard to tell whether it's cooler from the rain, or from the trailing edge of the cold front.
- Toyama dropped 6 degrees in two hours, raining 5.5mm in the last hour
- Kanazawa dropped 7 degrees in two hours, raining 10mm in the last two hours
- Takada dropped 4.5 degrees in two hours, raining 0mm in the last two hours
Everything east of Takada has not cooled yet, as of 8pm
Sandy as we drove through kutchan at 6pm, the first half entering kutchan was snow, the second half basically at turn off to niseko turned to rain
Wondering if its stayed as snow in Kiroro? might head there tomorrow early if so... any way you know we can check?
I see kutchan snow depth still rising too.
It's raining outside my window in hirafu tho